Cheddar Please

The duality of man

Wow this calendar alignment really is the jackpot for Thanksgiving movies isn't it Date Movie Weekend 1 Nov 29, 2024 Moana 2 $225,441,826 2 Nov 29, 2019 Frozen II $125,018,787 3 Nov 29, 2024 Wicked $118,270,155 4 Nov 29, 2013 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire $109,939,340 5 Nov 29, 2013 Frozen $93,590,387

Given that Wicked skews more adult I'd like to think that Moana is still gonna pull ahead on weekends but we'll see

I was expecting something like 6.5 for Moana and 4.5 for Wicked so definitely an unexpected result but not surprising given the reception and trajectory of both movies, still thinking it's gonna be a close race in the mid 500M range

I think its worth noting in Wicked's case that we have direct head-to-head comparisons in the form of not one but two 400m+ movies that opened on the same date (Nov 22) with the same calendar alignment: Frozen II and Catching Fire Monday, December 2 Wicked: >5,500,000 Catching Fire: 3,402,550 Frozen II: 3,187,895 Yeah this movie is about to be something else isn't it

IMO the question should be when (or even if) Moana 2 will overtake Wicked in totals. There is the funny if not very likely possibility that Moana 2 could overtake going into the holiday season only to fall behind again after WOM really kicks in down the line. Regardless, this should be a very fun race to track between the two.

really? I was expecting the same drop as JW

Better hold than JW on the same day for DPW 👀

Tbf he always goes very optimistic on his predictions so is projections are only extremely accurate if the movie is blowing up

Based on the avg trade underestimation for big event movies lately, I predict the actuals will be quite a bit higher...

BP: 176M > 111M (-37%)

Wednesday would also likely be above 1M due to the Apple Pay promotion Assuming Sunday stays even with Friday, extrapolating from last Monday's drop would give a figure of 1.11M, so as long as Thursday can hold within 10% of Monday it would make it to 59 days above 1M, tying Finding Nemo and placing only 2 days behind TPM (which opened on a Wednesday)

Also for context, counting only true FSS OW makes Deadpool's drop this week look even more impressive: JW: 190M > 106M (-44.3%) A1: 188M > 103M (-45.3%) DPW: 173M > 95M (-45.1%) TLK: 168M > 72M (-57.2%) I2: 164M > 80M (-51.2%)

With this weekend looking to be 95+ I think it's a safe bet to say that 600M is locked and loaded, heck with strong summer weekdays I'd argue that The Avengers post-OW gross of 415M is practically the baseline at this point.

PG rating isn't all great though, mostly because it leads to very family skewed audience, which means much lower ticket avg due to an abundance of kids tickets, like IO2 would've basically a 700M grosser if it had a more normal ticket price avg