BOfficeStats
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Posts posted by BOfficeStats
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8 hours ago, Marathon said:
The pre-sales in my market are abysmal. Unless it somehow gets out of this world WOM, there's no saving this movie.
Which market?
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13 hours ago, Carlangonz said:
Would seem like its only $10M+ market is going to be UK. Maybe Korea.
Chinese presales seem to indicate a $10M+ finish.
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34 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:
Are we getting reviews or social media reactions for any of these movies soon?
The Marvels social media embargo lifts on Nov. 7, 9PM PT while the review embargo lifts Nov. 8, 9 AM PT.
It seems like the Hunger Games social media embargo lifts on Nov. 5, 10 AM PT while the review embargo lifts Nov. 9, 11 AM PT.
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2 hours ago, imbruglia said:
Gotg 3 still did great. Marvels was going to face big huddle no matter what. (due to huge incel wave in S.korea) and lack of promo/buzz due to SAG strike made it worse. park seo joon who is huge name here also wont't participate in promotion to support SAG strike.
Is there any evidence of an "incel wave" and that it is affecting the box office?
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At this point it might have been a better decision for Marvel to have kept the release date at July 28 and dumped it with limited marketing.
They could have easily blamed Barbenheimer and the strikes to save face and they would have saved some money.
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1 hour ago, Carlangonz said:
8. The Eras Tour - $3.5M/$142.8M
Is that correct?
A 92% drop from last weekend ($43.6M) is crazy.
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19 minutes ago, TMP said:
You also have to remember that the largest demographic for these movies, those who grew up with them, were just entering college when Endgame opened, and between that and all the delays for their movies it’s kind of become a lameduck from their childhood. An MCU movie in 2023 is pretty much the same as a YA movie in 2017 - past its shelf life
This theory doesn't make any sense. MCU films didn't have an uber young audience back in 2012 when The Avengers came out and made a ton of money (50%/50% split over/under 25 years old). Even Spider-Man: Homecoming only skewed 57% under 25 years old.
The problem with the MCU right now is that *all demographics* are losing interest.
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4 hours ago, Taylor89 said:
Oh so it can be less than 20m? That's horrible. She should have sold the movie to streaming services.
Unless you have knowledge of the terms of a potential streaming deal, it is definitely possible that a theatrical-first release is still a better decision.
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1 hour ago, vale9001 said:
Halloween night on amc 13 dollars all tickets on every format, so including IMAX apparently (i don't know if It still has IMAX screening but anyways...)
I don't see any IMAX showings anywhere and only a couple PLF showtimes.
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8 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:
This isn’t entirely painting a true picture.
Spider-Man 1-2-3 all made under $900m
TSAM films never touched $800m
yet NWH made $2B because it was the cumulative Spider-Man franchise’s coming together.
$2B is obviously not happening for Deadpool, but using the old Fox X-men movies as measuring sticks is deceptive
The Raimi Spider-Man movies were way bigger than the 2014-2018 Fox X-Men and Deadpool movies when you adjust for inflation, exchange rates, and market growth. When you combine that with the 14.5 year gap between Spider-man 3 and NWH, the success of Far From Home, Garfield + Venom crossover hype, along with the PG/PG-13 rating for all Spider-Man films, it makes sense why NWH would get such a gigantic boost.
NWH was a family-friendly movie that drew in anyone who liked *at least some of* the Spider-Man movies released between 2002-2021. Unless Deadpool 3 is shockingly great, it will draw in mostly the same audience for the first two Deadpool films + Logan.
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6 hours ago, harry713 said:
Didn’t see this mentioned here or in the weekend thread oddly enough, but second weekend came in 2.3m higher than estimates (33.2m vs 31m) after a very strong Sunday hold and (I think) a revised Saturday. This weekend should do another 17m or so, plus about 3m thurs. 170m DOM possible.
Looks like the targets to beat are Indiana Jones 5 ($174.48M) and MI7 ($172.14M).
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1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:
Swift shouldn't release the Eras movie on video. Keep it theater exclusive to make it special. Home media doesn’t sell anymore, and it would devalue her brand anyway.
https://deadline.com/2023/10/bts-yet-to-come-streaming-release-date-prime-video-1235575372/
If it makes money and lets people experience it again, I don't see how it would devalue her brand. I'm sure it's a better experience in theaters than at home (for most people) but that's probably true for every concert film.
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22 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:
People might laugh it off, but I think this is a strategy that other big studios might actually follow. That generates an artificial demand that makes the weekend moviegoing experience an event. Taylor is schooling the old Hollywood model here with this trick. No wonder Nolan out of all people is impressed.
They might do that for truly "event" films but I don't think they would try that for a traditional movie. Theater owners will get very angry if studios refuse to allow their movies to be screened for 3+ days out of the week.
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21 hours ago, Bob Train said:
Django was probably hugely helped by having a German character. Germany was easily the largest OS market in that movie's case, which is a rare occurrence.
Good point.
IDK what German people thought at the time, but I could imagine that Christoph Waltz's role in Tarantino's previous movie, Inglorious Bastards, as another German character also would have boosted the film. Star power seems to have been a lot bigger back then.
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7 hours ago, filmlover said:
This is such an immersive experience on a big screen that watching it at home will feel completely different. It's definitely worth the nearly $20 ticket IMO.
It depends on the theater.
A standard showing in a theater where people are silent and don't move at all wouldn't be much different from a good theater setup.
A PLF showing in a theater where people are singing and dancing is totally different.
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7 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
trying to decide whether to watch this or not; the deciding factor is whether this will get a physical/digital release or not
do we have any indication that this could possibly be a theatrical-only thing?
The chances of TET being a theatrical exclusive seem extremely low.
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Taylor Swift's 4 other concert films (Speak Now, 1989, Reputation, and Lover) were all released straight to video. It seems unlikely that she would suddenly decide to make a theatrical-exclusive movie now when it means she would miss out on tens of millions of dollars.
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The Eras Tour concert videos and livestreams have tens millions, if not hundreds of millions of views. There's clearly a ton of demand for a home version of the concert.
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Theatrical re-releases domestically typically make very little. Titanic probably sold ~130M tickets in its initial release but the 2023 re-release only made $15M. Even Avatar (2009)'s re-release in 2022 which had sequel hype + 3D + footage for The Way of Water only made $24.7M.
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The Eras Tour film might be a good theatrical experience but it didn't benefit much from theater exclusive technology such as 3D and 4DX. By far the biggest impact of a theater viewing (compared to watching it at home) would be the audience reaction but there could still be a re-release once in a while for die hard fans who want to dance and sing along. This also brings me to point 5...
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A home video release will be the only way the overwhelming majority of her fans will be able to see The Eras Tour concert film after it leaves theaters. If it wasn't for the small budget and high ATP, The Eras Tour would have bombed outside of a couple markets and it is looking like it won't get a Chinese release at all. Almost all theaters in almost all markets would decline to show a re-release because the demand just isn't there. The domestic market *might* get a wide re-release at some point, maybe UK/Australia/New Zealand too, but that will probably be it.
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Refusing a home video release of any sort would make many fans upset and would lead to massive piracy of any decent versions of the film.
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2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:
130k is an shockingly awful opening for KoTFM. I thought Germany has been big market for Leo?
^
I also thought it would do better since The Revenant sold 2.83M tickets and Django Unchained sold 4.50M tickets. Maybe Germany isn't as interested in Western films as they used to be...
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8 hours ago, Jake4 said:
can godzilla beat beyonce for the opening weekend?
That seems extremely unlikely. Shin Godzilla only pulled in $1.54M over its opening 7-days. I can't imagine that Renaissance would open below $9M (~10% of The Eras Tour) considering the early presales (an estimated $6M on the first day), extremely high ATP, and IMAX screens.
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6 hours ago, Arlborn said:
Uhm, your point is interesting but Days of Future Past came out in 2014 and Logan came out in 2017.
I probably should have reworded that to say "By May 2016, audiences were still fresh off of the disappointment of recent PG-13 Sony, Fox, and WB superhero films and widely viewed the MCU as the only superhero franchise capable of consistently producing good superhero movies. This gave the franchise a halo effect and a shield against criticism ("at least its not a train wreck like [insert Fox/Sony/WB superhero film]").
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17 hours ago, Jake4 said:
What is your prediction for the OW?
I'm going with a $20M OW. I think walkups and presale growth will be a bit better than The Eras Tour but it will also be extremely early-presale heavy.
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5 hours ago, Dreamss said:
What about $40 million? It’s insane that it’s going to do way less than Eras. I was expecting it to do at least half of Eras. A streaming service release would have been more dignified
Was there any reason to believe that Renaissance would open even remotely close to The Eras Tour? The first day of Renaissance presales were around 1/6th of The Eras Tour, indicating far lower demand.
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5 hours ago, Valonqar said:
Do you guys know why MCU worked until Endgame? I'm curious to hear opinions and please don't say quality cause there were quite a few clunkers if we are being honest. But that was overlooked for larger value. So what does everyone think? Instead of talking in circles about what doesn't work now, lets start with what worked then. So why do you think that MCU worked between Iron Man (2008) and Endgame (2019)? 11 years.
I think there are 3 big reasons why.
1. Expectations were not incredibly high until 2018. Before the MCU there weren't any previous blockbuster films based on MCU characters (excluding Spider-Man) and there were 0 crossovers with other universes. This helped keep expectations down since people didn't have much to compare it to besides DC films, Fox X-Men films, and Sony live-action Spider-Man films which were all struggling by 2014-2016. It seemed like the MCU just kept getting better and better while their competition kept disappointing.
2. The short gap between sequels and low amount of non-sequels made it easy to hype up each new release. Only a maximum of one non-sequel was released each year from 2012-2019. Every film but Iron Man 3 released between 2010-2015 got a sequel that released <3 years later. It was easy to convince people to watch each film since 2/3rds of them are about characters the audience is familiar with and liked since The Avengers (2012) and the other 1/3rd have a clear hook to draw people in.
3. Most of the big MCU blockbusters from 2008-2019 are at least as good, if not better than most of their PG-13 action-adventure blockbuster competition. For a while they were THE obvious safe choice for moviegoers who wanted likeable characters, a decent and not too serious story, and explosions all in one package.
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On 10/7/2023 at 3:26 AM, Jake4 said:
what is the current prediction for opening weekend for this?
My prediction is 20%-25% of The Eras Tour's OW.
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7 hours ago, Valonqar said:
So is this going to be the Barbie of concert movies? I'm also confused about OW numbers here. Are they WW or dom only (some look way too big for dom)?
The Eras Tour is more like the Avengers: Endgame of concert films. Even a total collapse wouldn't prevent it from becoming the biggest concert film WW (excluding This is It).
The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Captain Marvel got a 91% on CGV while Black Widow has a 96%.