TheTom

how’s going the sales for Web Marley this Saturday in MTC1?

How are the sales for Thursday and Friday @keysersoze123????? I guess MW and OL are way closer than they were on VDay, right?

Madame Web big boost trackers are reporting looks like the more you talk to people not to watch a movie the more they get into watching it hahahahah

it has already been released in other markets, and audience score is bad as well, on letterbox OL has only 3 stars, which means a bad reception from audience as well… audience score so far on letterbox shows it is having a bad WoM

Idk but there are other factors, the fact that TCP had a great reception (85% on Rotten Tomatoes) and OL is having a bad reception (35%) plus its drop from OD pre sales seems to be even bigger than TCP… then would this make quite likely a bigger drop than 50%?????

I think OL seems to heading to have the biggest crash ever post OD box office. MTC1 tracked by @keysersoze123 shows it has sold for Friday only 15% of its VDay OD, I don’t know if any movie with a wide release has ever performed in pre-sales as bad as OL (regarding post OD drop). If it was good like TCP it could still hold a bit, but on Rotten Tomatoes OL has only 35%

Madame Web reviews are now available on internet and there’s no consensus about it. While some people call it the worst CBM ever, others say it’s a fantastic movie. it’s been fun to follow them. It seems pretty divisive. I’ll watch it only on VDay, so I have no opinion yet. However, as reviews have influence over box office, I select some of them to show how divisive it seems to be. I’m really curious about the early Rotten Tomatoes score!!!!! #MadameWeb is totally fine. There’s really not a lot to say here. By[@JamesPPoole](https://x.com/jamesppoole/status/1757291067840282988?s=46&t=sj3jc4WiXn-J0cj43toUUg) #MadameWeb is a fantastic movie packed with some of the best editing and performances. By[@4manofsteel](https://x.com/4manofsteel/status/1757292635377565758?s=46&t=sj3jc4WiXn-J0cj43toUUg) #MadameWeb has some cool CG and action sequences, a strong cast of women helmed by a woman and a hot Latino villain. It’s entertaining enough yet struggles. By [@thecurvycritic](https://x.com/thecurvycritic/status/1757305167752642983?s=46&t=sj3jc4WiXn-J0cj43toUUg) #MadameWeb is a film that’s feels like it was made for TV (CW/TUBI). The script is WEAK with some fun lines that the actors are trying their best to deliver. The editing is chaotic. By [@GlobalNerdz](https://x.com/globalnerdz/status/1757302902949818492?s=46&t=sj3jc4WiXn-J0cj43toUUg) Even though it had solid cinematography and an interesting concept, it couldn't be saved due to its terrible execution. [@HollywoodHandle](https://x.com/hollywoodhandle/status/1757283469086921177?s=46&t=sj3jc4WiXn-J0cj43toUUg) Unfortunately for me, #MadameWeb lacked the spark it needed in nearly every dept: writing, acting, action sequences. There are a few good moments with an excellent overall pacing, but gees was this hard to get through. [@BB18180](https://x.com/bb18180/status/1757284314633675137?s=46&t=sj3jc4WiXn-J0cj43toUUg)

i mean on Saturday as you can see you reported it had sold 9898 tickets, then you reported that yesterday it got +1209 tickets sold, so 9898+1208 makes 11107, that’s why I think there’s a typo there because you put 11207. Gotcha?

9898 (Saturday) + 1209 (Sunday) isn’t it 11107????? I think there’s a typo @keysersoze123

OL seems to be an one day movie event, like The Color Purple.

He’s just joking around about how people get engagement on internet I guess lol

WoM can be good and boost the box office, most of tracks are showing a good increase for Madame Web towards 5M+ on Valentine’s Day, keysersoze123 tracking is the only one which is questioning even 4M. So different tracks, different results and different interpretation. Who is closer to the truth we’ll only know on Wednesday. For now, trackers are doing their best of course. WoM nowadays pretty much defines how much successful a Movie will be, that’s why The Color Purple OD was 3x Anyone But You opening WEEKEND and even so now Anyone But You is projected to end its run with almost 2x TCP total. So it’s all a matter of waiting the WoM.

Those local cultural difference is not the what I’m talking about, specially because the US and Canada box offices are considered together as part of same big market. I’m just telling you that statistically this doesn’t make sense: “0.907x of FNAF for $9.3M 2.323 of Madame Web for ($13.8M)* *Using estimate based on comps” While the first is a very reasonable comparison because you’re using a final national data to project a final national result, the second one is by no means reasonable, because you’re using a local partial data to predict a national final result. This creates distortions and is really misleading. So I’m just showing an issue with your report. Try to keep using only final national data as basis to your comps (like you did with FNAF or The Marvels). Using partial local data to predict a national final result is not a good way, This is why all the trackers only use final national data as basis to their comps. I hope you don’t take it personally, I’m just advising you against a statistical mistake.

““But, you have to report what you have, not eliminate data that doesn't conform to others.” But you have just said you are deliberately avoiding to use TCP as a comp for “obvious” reasons. So I quite don’t get it. Statistically speaking, we have always to fit our data to the reality. Anyways, you can use whatever data you prefer, I’m just telling you that statistically this doesn’t make sense: “0.907x of FNAF for $9.3M 2.323 of Madame Web for ($13.8M)* *Using estimate based on comps” While the first is a very reasonable comparison because you’re using a final national data to project a final national result, the second one is by no means reasonable, because you’re using a local partial data to predict a national final result. This creates distortions and is really misleading. But you’re free to keep pushing that OL will have a better first day than Dune, I don’t think punishing this is very reasonable, but anyway we’ll find out in two weeks.

I mean to bring down to earth your projection (since 14M is by no means realistic for OL) you could use The Marvels as a second comp, this would be preferable than adding 14M as a comp which we all can agree is way too unrealistic for OL TCP also would bring it down to earth but I guess it really underperformed in Ontario and so you’re trying to avoid using it. Right?

oh no problem I’m just referring to the projection you did using a movie we don’t know what the opening day is yet. Reporting the difference between right now in your market is ok. Yet the problem is you’re using a local partial data as basis for a final national projection, this creates deep distortions. It’s not a criticism but just a friendly advice from someone who has been working with statistics since 2001

Does it have now a better pre sales pace than The Marvels and Aquaman????? This is why you’re seeing it diminishing the 15% and 50% difference????? Considering the T 5 difference you reported, it’d need a better pace than Marvels and Aquaman to achieve those over 50M you’re projecting I’m just curious

The second comparison doesn’t seem to make sense given that we don’t even know how much it gets in the opening weekend. I mean idk but 14M looks very distorted

If it’s now 15% away from The Marvels (which debuted with 50M-ish) and 50% away from Aquaman 2 (Which debuted with 80M-ish), how is it possible you project it to make over 50M in OW????? Does this mean its pace right now is better than The Marvels and Aquaman and so you’re seeing it shrinking the difference and potentially matching or surpassing The Marvels OW????? I’m curious because in American pre sales it opened with the comparisons putting it behind, but it still having a better pace, and now it’s surpassing the comps for having a better pace. I don’t know about Mexico, but in America it opened much closer to the release date than the others recent superhero movies, so the day to day comparisons have distortions because for example the Aquaman T 5 had more days selling tickets. I’m just curious to know if same kind of thing is happening in Mexico as well. Because by your projection it seems you’re seeing it with a better pace than The Marvel and Aquaman, and so it’s able to shrink the distance to them.