Ryan C

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/5-week-tracking-and-forecasts-deadpool?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2245202&post_id=146056888&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=33t9rb&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

The holds for this movie are just absolutely impressive. If it keeps having these minimal drops, it might not just reach $175M domestically and $400M worldwide, but it could surpass the final domestic total for Rise of the Planet of the Apes ($176.76M). If that happens, I see no reason as to why Disney/20th Century wouldn't want to make another Planet of the Apes movie. Even if about $400M worldwide on a $160M-$165M budget doesn't seem that impressive, there's always that chance that they get a Dawn of the Planet of the Apes-level bump for the sequel. Most people seem to enjoy Kingdom, so most of that audience if not more should show up for a sequel.

Nice! Looks like a $50M+ opening is more than possible at this point. Hopefully those solid walkups continue throughout the weekend.

This is something that I'm sure Furiosa didn't have, which is why we're looking at potentially the highest opening weekend for this franchise and it's a prequel film. Expect there to debate amongst people this weekend on why A Quiet Place: Day One worked and why Furiosa didn't.

I feel like $70M+ for Inside Out 2 this weekend is a bit too high. Going with somewhere between $60M-$65M. That seems a bit more realistic (especially with it losing PLFs to A Quiet Place: Day One), but I would love for this movie to shock us for the third time in a row.

Ok, that makes more sense. Still, he had me for a minute.

I just know he's wrong, but if Horizon: An American Saga somehow opens with $40M this weekend, I'm gonna go out on the street and scream for a solid ten seconds.

I won't even rule put the possibility of Riley coming for both T'Challa and Maverick.

The only thing all you guys need to know is that if Inside Out 2 drops more than 35% from Tuesday to Wednesday, it's not hitting $400M domestically tomorrow.

I know this thread is about pre-sales and tracking, but I would just like to bring up a couple of important statistics up that could maybe help soften the blow about the R-rating potentially limiting ticket sales for Deadpool and Wolverine. According to Deadline when Spider-Man: No Way Home opened, 72% of the audience was between ages 18-44. Even if that movie was a true four-quadrant blockbuster and got a lot of families and teenagers to go see it, having more than 70% of the audience be old enough to buy tickets to see D&W is a very good thing and that's not even including people who are possibly older than 44 that could show up to see it. Also, 46% of the people who bought tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home bought them the day of or the day prior from when they watched it. Just by looking at that, it's an encouraging sign for Deadpool and Wolverine that a good chunk of business will come from walk-ups (it'll only be better if the movie actually gets strong word-of-mouth) and it only makes more sense when pre-sales started this early compared to No Way Home. Of course, the R-rating will be limiting and I could totally be wrong about this, but looking at these stats for NWH does make the prospects for Deadpool and Wolverine hitting $200M on opening weekend a lot stronger. It should at least have no problem getting the 18-44 year olds which already largely make up a huge chunk of a Marvel movie's business.

Honestly, after these past two weekends, I don't think Deadpool and Wolverine is hitting #1 for the year. If it wants to even have a chance at overtaking Inside Out 2, it has to open with not just $200M, but more than that. Even then, that's betting it has legs akin to Jurassic World and The Avengers. I can't say it's 100% impossible for that to happen, but that's an insanely tall order to ask from a movie whose R-rating will limit some of the demographic that would usually turn out for a Marvel movie. I do think an opening weekend of $200M is possible (and likely considering the early pre-sales so far and the hype), but let's not try to go crazy with this. I'm sorry, but Quorum really shouldn't have put out those ridiculously high projections. Watch it come lower than $200M and the trades/internet will have a godforsaken panic attack about it just like what happened with John Kraskinski's IF (which only missed tracking by $5M by the way).

If this number is true and the drop from Tuesday to Wednesday isn't extreme, we could be seeing this hit $400M pretty damn fast. Again, I don't see how a run like this means a domestic total just barely above $600M domestically.

Wow, a fly landed on my keyboard and I slammed it. Didn't mean to send that last thing I said like that. I meant to say that the Deadline report was almost identical to the Variety report.

https://deadline.com/2024/06/inside-out-2-a-quiet-place-day-one-horizon-box-office-1235982975/ Pretty nu

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/inside-out-2-box-office-a-quiet-place-day-one-opening-weekend-projections-1236047725/