stripe
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Posts posted by stripe
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1 hour ago, JimmyB said:
This weekend's total box office will be around 50m'ish. Should be just enough to get the total box office gross for April to 400M.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/april/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses
I expect something around 65-70M for the weekend. (18-20M Challengers + 12-15M Unsung Hero + 35-40M holdovers)
About 420M April total box office.
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It's curious how a single trailer can turn the tide.
Just a few weeks ago, there were even doubts about a 100M OW. Now, 1 billion WW is back on the menu.
Right now, thinking
150/170M OW
400/420M DOM
1.1 billion WW
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42 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
Nah just meant I don't see any may release grossing more than 600m range WW .
Sorry, I misunderstood it
I agree. Hard to see a 600M+ WW grosser this May. Garfield has the strongest chance to cross that mark. Apes, if it's good it can come close. Furiosa and Fall Guy, I would say around 400M each WW.
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2 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
have we gotten a 50 page wknd thread this year?
Màrch definitely was fun.
April is exactly what we expected.
May just looks like 350-450m+ishs titles and that if they deliver at the very least . If they don't oh boy...
I could see something breakout but not by much really , something like 600m range at best.
June and July is where the real action begins.
Do you mean total gross for the month?
I am underwhelmed by April's grosses, but still, May has some very possible hits. Not juggernauts hits, but 700M is doable.
Right now, I would say Fall Guy gonna gross 120-140M, Apes around 125-150M, Furiosa & Garfield about 70-90M each. That's 385-450M range just with these 4 movies.Wildcards openers such as Tarot, Back to black, Strangers, Sight, If, and SWEp1 should add 150-200M.
And then the holdovers + limited releases could help reach that 700M for the month. Nothing crazy, but still an improvement.
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Why should The Fall Guy have strong presales 20 days before its opening? It's an original film, not a well-known franchise that fans will rush for. I expect presales to boost in last days with demand spreading all over the weekend, not just previews.
Ryan Gosling & Emily Blunt in SNL should help increase GA awareness, not necesarily presales.
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What would be a good result for both openers?
Anyways...
Jat's number is not official, so there's still hope
&
Cocaine Bear managed to open to 23M after 2M previews. So there will be still hope after previews are official
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1 hour ago, Brainbug said:
April ist the true test to see if audiences are willing to come out in big numbers again not only for the blockbusters, but also the smaller-budget fare.
So far, not a great start.
It's still early, especially for Monkey Man. I see that as a test of possible breakout thanks to legs more than big OW.
Anyways, if Monkey Man opens to around 12-13M, it could reach 40-50M DOM, and that's quite solid for an actioner that was scheduled not long ago and without a star in front of it.
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6 hours ago, BigBoxOfficeBucks said:
If it turned out to be a success, then finish the trilogy, make Batman the "antagonist" in the third movie, find Timothée Chalamet to play him.
Batman singing... Not sure if I want to see that
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6 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Domestic? Maybe!
Worldwide? Just. . .fuck no
Yeah, I meant domestic. Even if it disappoints, Joker 2 could gross about 400M worldwide
From those predictions I would change Mufasa's becoming biggest WW film of the year, and replace it with Inside Out 2 -
Looking at April, it’s full of uncertainty. But in a fascinating way, IMHO. I like this kind of months, with many quality offers and original movies. I would say crossing 500M is the baseline, and match 2022’s 570M a very good end. Not fair to compare it with April 2023, when SMB exploded.
Openers (275-325M)
Monkey Man: 60-70M
First Omen: 25-30M
SUGA: 20-30M
Civil War: 70-80M
Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare: 15-20M
Abigail: 35-40M
Challengers: 10-15M
Unsung Hero: 10M
Rest of openers: 30M
Holdovers (225M)
GxK - 100M
Ghostbusters: 35M
Dune 2: 25M
KFP4: 25M
Rest: 40M
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On 2/26/2024 at 5:52 PM, stripe said:
Looking at March, I would say 600-700M is the range. In 2023, the gross was around 640M.
Openers (500-575M) - THEY WILL GROSS 640M
Dune part 2: 180-190M - IN THE END, AROUND 253M
Cabrini: 30-40M - SLIGHTLY UNDER 20M
Imaginary: 35-45M - A BIT OVER 25M
Kung Fu Panda 4: 90-100M - OVERPERFORMED TO AROUND 150M
Arthur the King: 40-50M - CLOSE TO 20M
One Live: 5-10M - CLOSE TO 5M
Ghostbusters: 70-80M - OVER 75M
Godzilla x Kong: 40-50M - IT LOOKS LIKE A 65M+ OPENING
Rest of openers: 10M - AROUND 30M (GREAT!)
Holdovers (100-120M) - IN THE END, AROUND 75M
Bob Marley - 35-40M - WAY SHORT, TO 21M
Ordinary Angels: 20M - LEGS WERENT AS I GUESSED, JUST 10M IN MARCH
Madame web: 10M - NOT EVEN MANAGED TO REACH THAT MARK, 6M
Chosen: 5-10M - SPOT ON, 6M
Oscar Expansions: 5-10M - ABOUT 6M
Rest: 20M - OVER 25M
Bolded the probable final March grosses. Was too cautious with tentpoles and too optimistic with minor wide openers & holdovers.
Anyways, good news this month. It will close to around 720M.Next week I will try to take a look at April.
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42 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
10.75
5.5
4.85That's a strong drop for Ghostbusters... Down to 43.6M OW
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40 minutes ago, John Marston said:
In 1984 Ghostbusters was a huge hit and Dune flopped. In 2024 Dune is a huge hit and Ghostbusters will flop
So close to 5M previews and we are already calling Ghostbusters a flop?-
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On 3/15/2024 at 5:08 PM, stripe said:
Things I'm crossing fingers for this weekend.
-KFP4 over 35M
-Dune2 under 30% drop
-Arthur with healthy IM to around 12M
-Oppenheimer reaching 330M (so finally 4x OW)
-Cabrini delivering strong hold, with 5M
-Agregated top10 weekend over 100M
-More than 10 movies over 1M. It would require Love Lies Bleeding, One Life and The American Society of Magical Negroes over 1M.
It was a No, no, no, no, no, no and barely yes
Saaaad
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Things I'm crossing fingers for this weekend.
-KFP4 over 35M
-Dune2 under 30% drop
-Arthur with healthy IM to around 12M
-Oppenheimer reaching 330M (so finally 4x OW)
-Cabrini delivering strong hold, with 5M
-Agregated top10 weekend over 100M
-More than 10 movies over 1M. It would require Love Lies Bleeding, One Life and The American Society of Magical Negroes over 1M.
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36 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
Dune 2 still pretty much holding up like Batman 2022, not much better to break a trend. The movie needs a better hold to make 250m domestic or 700m worldwide an easy pass.
Dune 2 will be at around 205M after a 30M 3rd weekend. Almost impossible to miss 250M at this point!
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So Dune had almost same 12% increase as first Tuesday. I thought it could have a higher increase.
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Both numbers are quite impressive.
Very strong for Dune 2. Not easy to drop only 34% from last Monday, when that day was benefited from OW spillover. Tuesday increase should be healthier. I would say 30M+ 3rd weekend is pretty much assured.
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13 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:
I mean it's not that curious, low supply vs high demand. It's curious that Hollywood aren't releasing more kids movies.
As you say, it's curious, because the demand is clearly there, but still schedule have been almost void of kids movies for months.
At least, this will change soon. Until the end of 2024 we have If, Garfield, Inside Out 2, Despicable me 4, Robot Dreams, Harold and the purple crayon, Transformers One, The Wild Robot, Moana, Mufasa and Sonic3. -
Curiously, most of the few family films that have opened after 2021 have been quite succesful.
Super Mario Bros
Across the Spider-verse
Minions 2
The Little Mermaid
Wonka
Puss in Boots
Sonic 2
Sing 2
Elemental
TMNT
Migration
Trolls 3The bad guys
Super-Pets
Even minor films had solid runs, like Boy and the Heron, Paw Patrol or Lyle, Lyle Crocodyle.
The only clear underperformers are Wish, Ruby Gillman, Lightyear, Strange World and Paws of Fury.
In the end, 13 films clearly directed to families have grossed 100M+ since 2022, and 5 of them over 200M. That's very good!
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Great!
We have four original and very different movies that could be breakouts. Monkey Man, Civil War, Abigail and Challengers.
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7 hours ago, BoxOfficeZ said:
Say it stays flat Thursday for 6.5.
Batman comp:
14.3 Friday
21.5 Sat
15 Sun
50.8m
Logan comp
13.6 (+109.8%)
21.4 (+57.3%)
15 (-29.8%)
50m
Captain Marvel
13.4 (+106%)
20.7 (+55%)
13.7 (-33.8%)
47.8m
I suspect the demand at high priced premium screens will dilute decreases and increases a tad, but who knows.
Possibly, buy also the length of Dune Part 2 can help to see better than expected weekends. Some audience won't be able to see an almost 3hours long movie during week.
Avatar 2 had very strong weekends thanks to this-
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Nice increase. Wednesday drop will be definitory.
25% drop: 6.1M (same as Scream 6, a bit over The Batman)
30% drop: 5.7M (close to JW4 and Zootopia)
35% drop: 5.3M (same as Creed 3, Logan and Us)
40% drop: 4.9M (same as Shazam 2, close to The Los City and Captain Marvel)
I would say between 30-35% will be the range
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On 3/2/2024 at 5:09 PM, HummingLemon496 said:
Until
Dune 2 should land in 230-250M area, but...
What if legs help Dune reach 300M?
7M Monday
8M Tuesday
5M Wednesday
5M Thursday
12M Friday
21M Saturday
15M Sunday
2nd weekend 48M for a 10day total of 155M
With that, the chances of 300M become real
Weekend Numbers | estimates | 15.01M CHALLENGERS | 7.73M UNSUNG HERO | 7.22M GODZILLA×KONG: TNE
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I would have loved to see a surprise hit, but which April movie had a real chance to become it? Civil War, Monkey Man, Challengers and Abigail are not the kind of films that reach great mainstream audiences. And despite this, two of them had (or will have) solid openings for the type of films they were. The most disappointing opening was Abigail and I also expected better legs for Monkey Man.