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I would have loved to see a surprise hit, but which April movie had a real chance to become it? Civil War, Monkey Man, Challengers and Abigail are not the kind of films that reach great mainstream audiences. And despite this, two of them had (or will have) solid openings for the type of films they were. The most disappointing opening was Abigail and I also expected better legs for Monkey Man.

I expect something around 65-70M for the weekend. (18-20M Challengers + 12-15M Unsung Hero + 35-40M holdovers) About 420M April total box office.

It's curious how a single trailer can turn the tide. Just a few weeks ago, there were even doubts about a 100M OW. Now, 1 billion WW is back on the menu. Right now, thinking 150/170M OW 400/420M DOM 1.1 billion WW

Sorry, I misunderstood it I agree. Hard to see a 600M+ WW grosser this May. Garfield has the strongest chance to cross that mark. Apes, if it's good it can come close. Furiosa and Fall Guy, I would say around 400M each WW.

Do you mean total gross for the month? I am underwhelmed by April's grosses, but still, May has some very possible hits. Not juggernauts hits, but 700M is doable. Right now, I would say Fall Guy gonna gross 120-140M, Apes around 125-150M, Furiosa & Garfield about 70-90M each. That's 385-450M range just with these 4 movies. Wildcards openers such as Tarot, Back to black, Strangers, Sight, If, and SWEp1 should add 150-200M. And then the holdovers + limited releases could help reach that 700M for the month. Nothing crazy, but still an improvement.

Why should The Fall Guy have strong presales 20 days before its opening? It's an original film, not a well-known franchise that fans will rush for. I expect presales to boost in last days with demand spreading all over the weekend, not just previews. Ryan Gosling & Emily Blunt in SNL should help increase GA awareness, not necesarily presales.

What would be a good result for both openers? Anyways... Jat's number is not official, so there's still hope & Cocaine Bear managed to open to 23M after 2M previews. So there will be still hope after previews are official

It's still early, especially for Monkey Man. I see that as a test of possible breakout thanks to legs more than big OW. Anyways, if Monkey Man opens to around 12-13M, it could reach 40-50M DOM, and that's quite solid for an actioner that was scheduled not long ago and without a star in front of it.

Batman singing... Not sure if I want to see that

Yeah, I meant domestic. Even if it disappoints, Joker 2 could gross about 400M worldwide From those predictions I would change Mufasa's becoming biggest WW film of the year, and replace it with Inside Out 2

Looking at April, it’s full of uncertainty. But in a fascinating way, IMHO. I like this kind of months, with many quality offers and original movies. I would say crossing 500M is the baseline, and match 2022’s 570M a very good end. Not fair to compare it with April 2023, when SMB exploded. Openers (275-325M) Monkey Man: 60-70M First Omen: 25-30M SUGA: 20-30M Civil War: 70-80M Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare: 15-20M Abigail: 35-40M Challengers: 10-15M Unsung Hero: 10M Rest of openers: 30M Holdovers (225M) GxK - 100M Ghostbusters: 35M Dune 2: 25M KFP4: 25M Rest: 40M

Bolded the probable final March grosses. Was too cautious with tentpoles and too optimistic with minor wide openers & holdovers. Anyways, good news this month. It will close to around 720M. Next week I will try to take a look at April.

That's a strong drop for Ghostbusters... Down to 43.6M OW

So close to 5M previews and we are already calling Ghostbusters a flop?

It was a No, no, no, no, no, no and barely yes Saaaad

Things I'm crossing fingers for this weekend. -KFP4 over 35M -Dune2 under 30% drop -Arthur with healthy IM to around 12M -Oppenheimer reaching 330M (so finally 4x OW) -Cabrini delivering strong hold, with 5M -Agregated top10 weekend over 100M -More than 10 movies over 1M. It would require Love Lies Bleeding, One Life and The American Society of Magical Negroes over 1M.

Dune 2 will be at around 205M after a 30M 3rd weekend. Almost impossible to miss 250M at this point!

So Dune had almost same 12% increase as first Tuesday. I thought it could have a higher increase.

Both numbers are quite impressive. Very strong for Dune 2. Not easy to drop only 34% from last Monday, when that day was benefited from OW spillover. Tuesday increase should be healthier. I would say 30M+ 3rd weekend is pretty much assured.

As you say, it's curious, because the demand is clearly there, but still schedule have been almost void of kids movies for months. At least, this will change soon. Until the end of 2024 we have If, Garfield, Inside Out 2, Despicable me 4, Robot Dreams, Harold and the purple crayon, Transformers One, The Wild Robot, Moana, Mufasa and Sonic3.

Curiously, most of the few family films that have opened after 2021 have been quite succesful. Super Mario Bros Across the Spider-verse Minions 2 The Little Mermaid Wonka Puss in Boots Sonic 2 Sing 2 Elemental TMNT Migration Trolls 3 The bad guys Super-Pets Even minor films had solid runs, like Boy and the Heron, Paw Patrol or Lyle, Lyle Crocodyle. The only clear underperformers are Wish, Ruby Gillman, Lightyear, Strange World and Paws of Fury. In the end, 13 films clearly directed to families have grossed 100M+ since 2022, and 5 of them over 200M. That's very good!

Great! We have four original and very different movies that could be breakouts. Monkey Man, Civil War, Abigail and Challengers.

Possibly, buy also the length of Dune Part 2 can help to see better than expected weekends. Some audience won't be able to see an almost 3hours long movie during week. Avatar 2 had very strong weekends thanks to this

Nice increase. Wednesday drop will be definitory. 25% drop: 6.1M (same as Scream 6, a bit over The Batman) 30% drop: 5.7M (close to JW4 and Zootopia) 35% drop: 5.3M (same as Creed 3, Logan and Us) 40% drop: 4.9M (same as Shazam 2, close to The Los City and Captain Marvel) I would say between 30-35% will be the range

Dune 2 should land in 230-250M area, but... What if legs help Dune reach 300M? 7M Monday 8M Tuesday 5M Wednesday 5M Thursday 12M Friday 21M Saturday 15M Sunday 2nd weekend 48M for a 10day total of 155M With that, the chances of 300M become real