stripe
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Posts posted by stripe
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It's always interesting to take a look at TFE. Nathaniel Rogers recently updated his predictions and I usually find them useful and interesting.
http://thefilmexperience.net/best-picture/
His top 10 (in this order)
OppenheimerAmerican Fiction
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Maestro
Poor ThingsPast Lives
The Color Purple
Anatomy of a Fall
Maybe Poor things is too low on this list. Besides that, I agree with these predictions.
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28 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
One aspect of Disneys crash is one that may need decades - not years - to recover: The air of magic surrounding the name Disney itself. What i mean by that is that Disney basically since its birth as a company promised viewers of their movies pure, otherwordly escapism into storys that are modern fairy tales based on old traditions and folklore. Its high point was arguably the 1990s era Disney rennaissance. I mean after producing generational hits like Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast and especially The Lion King one after another, Disney built a trusting audience and extremely wide fanbase within the GA that associated Disney movies with greatness, talent and escapism.
But now? For over a decade the name Disney stands for unoriginality, remakes, reboots, deluding/destroying whole brands like Star Wars and now possibly even Marvel and as a whole, it stands for everything wrong with modern movies for many people. Not for all of course, but for many. The trust that Disney has been building up since the 1930s basically is gone now. And the studio would need many MANY great films in a row to rebuilt that trust.
For reference, im not a Disney hater or anything like that. I love tons of Disney movies, but nearly all of them are now older than 10 years. In my opinion, the quality downgrade in Disneys movie portfolio is obvious and audiences have little faith and patience anymore with Disney.
It's not true GA has lost faith/interest in Disney.
Of course, Disney has had a lot of highs and downs through its 100 years of history. After 80's huge crisis arrived "Renaissance era", then in 2000's there were a lot of huge misteps (Treasure Island, Atlantis, Home on the Range, The Wild) mixed with great entries (Lilo&Stitch, Enchanted)... And we returned to strong succesful entries during 2010 decade. So what we are witnessing now is nothing uncommon or unseen.
Now quality fluctuates but there are still some good/great animated films, like Encanto and Raya, both original entries with damaged BO results due to Covid.
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8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
It's freaking sad that THG is going to take first place over the Thanksgiving weekend. Good for THG, but shows the incredible lack of GA interest for the new releases this Thanksgiving weekend.
Napoleon and Wish both look like they should finish over THG this Thanksgiving.
What's your prediction for THG?
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6 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
I can’t see anything competing with Opp to win, I think it’s gonna be a landslide this year. And that goes for BD, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography and both Actors as well.
Poor things is already a major threat to Oppenheimer. In a couple of weeks we should see a lot of precursors going crazy for it.
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1 hour ago, PlatnumRoyce said:
That's a retcon by Marvel. "Phase 1" of the MCU was about Iron Man and/or forming the Avengers. That was the big hook that was paid off for audiences. After that, they found a new big hook in addition to just milking sequels in selling Infinity Stones/War and Thanos and the end of the Avengers/original Avengers story.
I think the Phase 1 part is more important. If you do the math RDJ was a lead role in 8 films across 11 years + a mentor role in Homecoming. That's nearly a major substantive tentpole film release starting Iron Man a year.
Iron Man obviously was one of the main reasons of MCU's success for phase 1-3. Quality of the first IM helped to build that universe. However, let's not pretend it was the only major hook. Captain America was also a lead in 7 movies. Same with Thor: leading 7 movies.
Also, Infinity Stones huge part of the plot in 8 movies!-
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7 hours ago, Dominic Draper said:
I think for a lot of GA the mcu was the story of Iron Man.
He was THE driving force of the franchise.
His story ended and a lot of the audience decided to walk away.
MCU was the story about Infinity Stones with Iron Man AND Captain America AND Thor.
Once this story ended, GA was still waiting for "what's next" but lack of definite direction plotwise plus lack of leading characters plus lack of wow setpieces/movies plus series with zero relevance or meh quality have killed momentum.
Anyways, MCU has had some solid/incredible runs in phase 4&5 (NWH, Guardians3, SC, WF). Even MOM did quite solid.
GA isn't completely rejecting the saga! Yet.
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39 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:
5day gross: 51.7M
Around 70-71M after 10 days. Hard to see it missing 100M DOM.
Still... AWFUL!
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This is painful... Marvel would love to time travel, get the Infinity Stones, snap its fingers and erase the events after Endgame
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Doom & gloom weekend ahead? See you then in a couple of days
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We are a almost a month away for the beginning of Awards season. I'm very curious to see what will be the surprising addition to the run and what will suffer the egregious lack of love with precursors.
Right now, thinking precursors will establish Poor Things as the frontrunner...
And will show weakness for Killers of the Flower Moon
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On 10/25/2023 at 10:18 PM, Bob Train said:
Oppenheimer will win. The academy hasn't had an Oscar baity drama gross $900m+ WW...pretty much ever. The only potential analog here is Bohemian Rhapsody, but Oppenheimer is...a much better and more acclaimed movie.
Oppenheimer has still a long road ahead to claim victory.
It's a July movie. It will have to fight momentum and freshness of newer tentpoles.
While it's a respected tentpole/hit, AMPAS now prefer to award minor films. Remember Moonlight over La La Land, or 12 years a slave over Gravity?
It's fighting for the same attention as Killers of the Flower Moon: prestige auteur+historical pic+high value production.
And... Can the Palestine conflict affect the way some AMPAS members see Oppenheimer's biopic?
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23 minutes ago, Bob Train said:
People don't care about any of the new Avengers they introduced, as most of them have starred in bad projects or projects no one saw. The only character that people still care about is Spider-Man. If Spider-Man doesn't have a major role in it, it will go sub $1b globally unless it is really great, which I doubt.
I am quite sure that an Avengers movie with just Thor, Strange, CM, Shang Chi, Black Panther, Deadpool, Ant Man & co can still gross north of 1b. Just the "Avengers" title is enough to convince many that this is an event movie that should be seen theatrically.MCU is not as fresh as it was a couple years ago, but still has a healthy GA recognition.
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No one would have believed two months ago that a concert movie would open over 90M in October. It's an awesome wonderful feat! Even more if we think about the lack of strong marketing push.
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I still can see Air scoring a BP nom at the Oscars. It's a crowdpleaser and it's going to be campaigned. Very possible SAG Ensemble nom, PGA and Golden Globe Comedy nom will help to be in conversation later in the year.
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2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:
This is a win to me. I thought the year would just end with 8 billion.
Agree. 9 billion+ was the high end of my expectations for 2023, and the year could finish confortably over that mark.
We are at 7.1 billion
October might gross 650-700M and November should add another 700M+. December is very hard to predict, but Renaissence+Wonka+Aquaman+Migration+Color Purple should help to bring the month over 800M.
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16 hours ago, Valencia said:
What makes you say that?
Holdovers and Fiction are comedies.
Poor things is a raunchy sex film.
14 hours ago, titanic2187 said:I have very very low confident about indie drama at BO. Last year, many indie Oscar contenders such as Banshees, Til, Tar, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking didn't make it to $10m by the Oscar nomination morning, most of them didn't after all. And some of them like Banshees is from the top-tier Oscar studio like Searchlight and Focus Feature, which tend to attract more artsy-moviegoers thanks to their branding.
Of course I like to be proven wrong but most of the BO run for indie drama thus far through 2023 have been very disappointing. Margaret struggle to pass $20m, Theater camp did just 4m, Joy ride and Bottom narrowly pass $10m.
Beau is afraid 8M
Asteroid Ciry 28M
Past Lives 11M
Joy ride 13M
Margaret 20M
Dumb Money 7.5M and counting...
This year we have already seen indie films doing a tad better than they would have done last two years. Market is slowly recovering. Of course, there's still a long road ahead for the market to completely recover prepandemic grosses for this kind of movies.
IMHO, The Holdovers has a prestige director and it's an easy relatable dramedy.
American Fiction win at Toronto points it's a crowdpleaser. It has already a wide release during Holidays and legs should be solid.
Poor Things could be weird, but in a distinctive way. It has a director with many fans, and an very popular actress in one of her finest works.
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On 9/26/2023 at 9:10 PM, titanic2187 said:
We are about to enter the most crowded season for Oscar-hopeful titles, I still believe BO is a important factor to influence Oscar race especially adult drama at BO is in freefall form. Bad BO may not hurt the chance but overperformance sure could change the course of conversation.
Anatomy of Fall - Oct 13
Killer of the Flower Moon - Oct 20
The Holdovers - Oct 27
Priscilla - Nov 3
Saltburn - Nov 17
Napelon - Nov 22
Poor Things - Dec 8
Zone of Interest - Dec 8
Boy and the heron - Dec 8
American Fiction - Dec 15
All of Us strangers - Dec 22
The Colour Purple - Dec 25
Ferrari - Dec 25
Outside of Heron, Flower moon, Napelon and Colour Purple, I don't see any remaining titles here can hit $10m before Oscar nomination day. I didn't include Netflix's title because they are just content, not a movie. Most importantly, since Netflix won't disclose the BO, the BO factor isn't applicable to them.
Poor Things, Holdovers, Ferrari and American Fiction will also be over 10M before Oscar nomination day. Question is, how much over?
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Turning red song wasnt even in the shortlist elegible finalists... That was one of the most surprising snubs last year. It still hurts me all the praise behind EEAAO overrated score. Last year it should have been replaced by Nope.
Anyways, Hisaishi is a legend and the piano track I have listened for The Boy and the Heron is soo beautiful. In a year without strong/memorable scores, I can easily see it nommed. And watch out if it finally gets in.
Oppenheimer has a distinctive score, but nothing truly amazing. I miss the times when a score not only enhanced a movie but also could be enjoyed as a whole.
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Paw Patrol and Saw X are already success stories. And in the following weeks we will also see:
- Exorcist doing okish numbers.
- Eras Tour becoming the biggest concert event ever and scoring also biggest October opening.
- Killers of the Flower Moon (a R-rated 3hour+ period crime drama) opening really strong.
- Five Night at Freddy's overperforming with a strong chance to 100M DOM territory.
Add in very possible successful limited runs for Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers and The Killer.
Not that bad for an October (3th weakest month historically) dealing with only 4 strong openings, streaming competition and a SAG strike. In fact, 700M+ for the month is in play, which would mean 5th highest cumulative gross in this period.
Anyways, doom and gloom will continue. I suppose in these days it's cool to be on the pessimistic side of everything-
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13 hours ago, CJohn said:
The rest of September screams disaster. Expand4bles is a 7-8M OW, Dumb Money is a 3-4M OW, Saw X is maybe a 10M OW and The Creator probably does around 10M as well. Paw Patrol should be the best with 12-13M. Hollywood needs a complete reboot because streaming has killed them.
Yeah, poor Hollywood... Oh, wait, we just had a Summer almost in line with prepandemic levels with half the movies in theaters.
Problem with September/October is a weaker schedule than expected due to a strike that also limits campaigns. Still, Expend4bles can very well open north of 10M and last weekend of September has a potential breakout (The Creator) and another two 10M+ openers.
September agreggated gross will be around 475M, that's 150M over September 2022.
Apocalypse aborted
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13 hours ago, pieman said:
What will be number one next week?
If Expend4bles doesn’t deliver I could see A Haunting in Venice get another chance with good WOM.
What are you expecting for Expend4bles? It would need to open below 9M to give a chance for A Haunting in Venice. Very unprobable.
Let's say:
Expend4bles 12MA Haunting in Venice 9M
Nun2 8.5M
Barbie 6M
Equaliz3r 5M
It Lives Inside 4M
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Another score to be considered: Giacchino's Society of the Snow. They have just released a track and it's so beautiful.
Also made me remember how great was James Newton Howard's score for Alive.
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Biggest dissapointment: Joker 2 (under 200M)
Biggest surprise: Twisters (+300M)
Biggest DOM: Deadpool 3 (475M)
Biggest WW: Mufasa (1.3b)
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2 hours ago, Hilts said:
Weekend Box Office Forecast: A HAUNTING IN VENICE - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)
FilmStudio3-Day Weekend ForecastProjected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 17Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)3-Day % Change from Last WkndA Haunting in Venice20th Century Studios$17,200,000$17,200,000~3,200NEWThe Nun IIWarner Bros. Pictures$11,800,000$53,100,000~3,728-64%The Equalizer 3Sony & Columbia Pictures$7,100,000$73,400,000~3,600-41%My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3Focus Features$5,500,000$19,000,000~3,650-45%BarbieWarner Bros. Pictures$4,100,000$626,300,000~3,300-28%Blue BeetleWarner Bros. Pictures$2,800,000$67,600,000~2,700-27%Gran TurismoSony Pictures$2,400,000$39,400,000~2,300-31%OppenheimerUniversal Pictures$2,200,000$318,700,000~2,000-29%Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant MayhemParamount Pictures$2,100,000$114,200,000~2,300-24%BottomsOrion Pictures$1,400,000$10,000,000~1,300-32%Jat will know for sure but crumbling scenario aside, Jawan should still comfortably make the top 10 this weekend.
Crossing fingers Haunting in Venice manages to open over 20M
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Best Picture Predictions: 2023
in And The Winner Is...
Posted
I didn't expect Flowers to begin the race with such a bang!
Also, May December could be a stronger contender than expected. More than Maestro snub, I am surprised with Poor Things lack of wins.