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BOT User Tracking Massive catch-up thread

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They said this thread was no more. They said it had ceased to be. It had rung down the curtains and joined the choir invisible. That if it hadn't been nailed to its perch it would be pushing up the daisies.


But it turns out, it was just pining for the fjords.


Time for some catch-up. It'll be a little abbreviated. I mean, the individual ones. Overall it'll be a bit lengthy.


Now that we're caught up, time to start again.




Light Between Oceans

Prediction: 5.5M +/- 1.26M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 4.766M (off by 0.7M, so 0.58 stndev)

Pretty decent predict. Only Deadline provided a predict and we did better, so that's nice. Hiccup23 was closest predict at 4.9M.


Prediction: 7M +/- 1.69M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 2.01M (off by 5.0M, so 2.94 stndev)

Just terrible, just like Morgan's BO. Again, only Deadline predicted and this time we did worse. ThatOneGuy had the least-wrong predict at 5.5M.


Prediction: 21.4M +/- 2.91M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 35.03M (off by 13.7M, so 4.69 stndev)

Ouch! Confident in our predict AND way off. A bad combination. On the bright side, everyone underestimated this one, though we were lower than everyone except Deadline. Closest predict was 27.5M by the avatar of optimism, mahnamahna.



When the Bough Breaks

Prediction: 20M +/- 3.13M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 14.2M (off by 5.8M, so 1.86 stndev)

Bad but, unlike the last couple, at least not catastrophically bad. Closest predict was 13.5M by the prince of pessimism, mahnamahna.



Wild Life

Prediction: 3.43M +/- 0.8M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 3.34M (off by 0.1M, so 0.11 stndev)

Wow, go us. Fantastic predict, and far closer than anyone else. Best predict was 3.163M by Blankments.



Blair Witch

Prediction: 23.89M +/- 4.46M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 9.58M (off by 14.3M, so 3.21 stndev)

AND we're back to catastrophically bad. We were pretty much in the pack so everyone missed around as badly as we did. Least bad predict was 16M by DAJK.



Bridget Jones

Prediction: 15M +/- 2.48M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 8.57M (off by 6.4M, so 2.59 stndev)

Ugh. Maybe I should have just let these sleeping dogs lie. Once again, we were pretty close to the group so it was nearly as bad a miss for everyone else as it was for us, but it was still bad. Best predict was Blankments at 10.502M.




Prediction: 3.13M +/- 1.53M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 1.36M (off by 1.8M, so 1.16 stndev)

Not good but at least not terrible. Most others didn't bother putting in a predict for Hillsong so normally I might have just bailed on this one. DAJK was again the best predictor at 2.18M




Prediction: 6.19M +/- 1.36M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 8M (off by 1.8M, so 1.33 stndev)

Not a win, but at least not a disaster. There was a wide range of predicts among the sites and we were roughly in the middle in terms of accuracy. Best predict was by MaxMoser3 who nailed it at 8 exactly.



Magnificent Seven

Prediction: 40.6M +/- 6.5M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 34.7M (off by 5.9M, so 0.91 stndev)

Not bad at all. A 0.91 miss on a blockbuster (supposedly, anyway) is normally pretty bad, but people were pretty optimistic and we were actually one of the closer predicts (BO.com was at 51M, for example). Best predict was 35.4M by Hiccup23.




Prediction: 35.8M +/- 3.83M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 21.3M (off by 14.5M, so 3.79 stndev)

Woof. Back to terrible again. On the bright side, everyone else was also terrible including BO.com who were even higher than us. Shockingly, MovieWeb.com who is usually comically terrible in their predicts, was the only site to get this right. Ethan Hunt was our best predict at 26M.



Deepwater Horizon

Prediction: 26M +/- 3.93M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 20.22M (off by 5.8M, so 1.47 stndev)

Normally, I'd rank this result as "disappointing" but after so many bad misses it doesn't feel too bad. Unfortunately, we were also the most optimistic so everyone else was closer. Oh well. Predicting the future is a tough game. Best predict was 20M by Alison23 in what was her (I'm assuming its a her) first week of predicts. A belated "nicely done".




Prediction: 6.1M +/- 2.14M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 6.54M (off by 0.4M, so 0.21 stndev)

Hurray! A genuinely good predict. Nicely done. And as a bonus we were the second closest predict at ShowBuzzDaily which apparently celebrated this win by ending their weekly predictions. Which was a darn shame, because by my math they were actually the best at predicting OW results, even better than BO.com. Our best predict was 6.6M by spaghetti.



Miss Peregrine's School

Prediction: 25.5M +/- 6.81M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 28.87M (off by 3.4M, so 0.49 stndev)

Nice to end the catch-up with a solid predict. Well done, everyone. Best predict was 28.6M by DAJK who was on a bit of a roll, there.


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No, I have no idea what happened with the formatting. I mean, yes, I can see that there was some sort of nesting of the weird quote-formatting going on, but I don't know why or how it happened. Next time I'm going to try a little harder to avoid that.

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