How the industry change after 2nd weekend for Big blockbusters with good WOM

[seduh]

I remember back in 2000 that a Blockbuster (sequel or based on known property) with good WOM usually had a big drop on it's second weekend (softer than today but with softer OW also) and then somehow the stabilize after that.

Some examples:

The Mummy Returns opens at $68,1 (2001, $104,1 adj) and drop 50,5% on it's second weekend, and then 39,4%; 25,9% (Memorial Day weekend); 48,8%, and didn't fall over 50% until 12th weekend

Rush Hour 2 opens at $67,4 (2001, $103 adj) and drop 50,9% on it's second weekend, and then 42,6%; 39,1%; 19,7% (Labor day weekend), and didn't fall over 50% anymore until pulled off of cinemas.

Signs opens at $60,1 (2002, $89,5 adj) and drop 51% on it's second weekend, and then 34,3%; 26,2%; 5,9% (Labor day weekend), and didn't fall over 50% anymore until 11th weekend

Even Man in Black II (not very liked) opens at $52,1 / $87,2 5 day (2002, $77,6 / $129,9 5 day, 4th of July weekend) and drop 53,2% on it's second weekend, and then 40,4%; 41,7%; 43,93%

 

I know it's subjective but now I'm surprised at how a big blockbuster can drop near 50% on it's second weekend (JW, Avengers 1, BatB) and then do the same on it's third weekend and forth (Avengers had a good drop on it's forth weekend but it was memorial day. I think that movies per se tend to be much more frontloaded by the time because of loosing theatres and loosing interest by people because other movies take the media (look at Get Out, it decreased 15% on it's second weekend, then 25% and then 35%, it has amazing legs but i thought that it could have better late legs). Also, some movies have a restricted audience so there is a limit (i think that happens with Get Out). Also SW7, it decrease 40% on it's second weekend (including $57 in previews). I know it was Christmas weekend but the new eyes weekend is algo huge and it still drop another 39%. When i was the second weekend drop i really thought that it will crush the 1 billion mark. 

All this come to my mind as BatB had a tremendous end weekend hold (against a $40 OW and after having the 6th biggest OW and $16,3 in previews), but then dropped 50% on it's third weekend, and this weekend it will drop near 45% with little competition. 

 

 

[Barnack]

The most obvious reason is that it was less frontloaded, less people saying it the first week give you a bigger pool of people to see it week 3 or 4 specially when you are talking legs in percentage without taking a look at the absolute number.

 

Maybe the smaller exclusive theatrical windows has some impact here, if you do not go see it in the first 2-3 weeks, you probably are more ok to wait for it to reach home video, it will not be as long as in the past ?

 

For the other movies taking place in the media, that was probably pretty much equivalent in the early 2000, the number of studio release movie didn't grow since then it diminished (it went from 200 movies a year from the main studio + their specialty division to around 150).