Shawn Robbins

Makes sense knowing that. Their original press release really should have clarified as much and prevented some, ahem, internal headaches... but oh well.

Apparently ERAS TOUR is getting an extension in theaters, or at least that's what Swift's PR firm is telling a good friend and source of mine. Has anyone heard this previously? Seems like news to me with the wording of the original and only press release that I'm aware of. And I don't see tickets on sale past November 5.

You just honed in on exactly what's driving my wide-reaching expectation for a long haul run because, almost ironically, even with an FB3-like opening I could see Ballad pulling out an FB1-like multiplier *if* reception is that good. It was sneaky at the time, but that first Beasts had very respectable legs for a franchise that had come to be known for frontloading and was going the prequel route up against some heavy competition in late 2016.

LRF should be up soon. Adjusting Wish to include lower floors just in case, factoring in the convos we all had from last week and crowding of female films this month. @keysersoze123 @M37 @TwoMisfits @Relevation @Grand Cine @Porthos The fact that Deadline (likely via NRG and/or the studio) are going with $50M+ 5-day is probably a good sign since they usually try to be conservative. But that's not a fail-proof benchmark. Big cluster of films is going to lead to more volatility than usual for a number of movies and their ranges this month. I'm still rather concerned about The Marvels unless it's going to really break out with the eleventh hour sales and walk-ups. We'll see how Hunger Games shapes up in momentum (it's a little behind Fantastic Beasts 3 data that I have, but decently ahead of other comps from 2023.

All fair points! It's very possible the range is a bit high. Time will tell. Ordinarily, I'd be right there with you and @keysersoze123 in pushing extra caution toward Disney films given their post-COVID track record... but, I think the majority of those films -- (Encanto with COVID keeping a big portion of the audience at home, Strange World with no real idea who its audience was, Elemental with the softening appeal of Pixar to today's kids) -- had baggage to carry in some way or form. Conversely, as someone who is not in the target demographic, to me Wish looks more like the kind of traditional, original, comedic, "princess" film with a core audience they haven't appealed to since Frozen II and the likes of Tangled/Moana (Mermaid being the exception, which itself had some unfortunate racially-tinged baggage of its own). Plus, with it being their official 100th anniversary poster movie (figuratively and literally speaking), I think the model deserves to be a little bullish this far out under the assumption that they won't mess up the movie itself and that they'll market it like the tentpole it's positioned to be over Thanksgiving. Social media growth is definitely a factor in the LRF at the moment as well, aided somewhat by the studio's decision to slow-drip market buzz via a new song release each week. But whether or not those create any additional traction will be important before we get to a point pre-sales and/or reviews start telling us more. I'm definitely not married to any particular number or range at this point, and would not rule out anything on either end of the spectrum, especially with so many movies aimed at women that are coming out this month. (How often do we get to say that?)

$39.46m official FNAF FRIDAY ESTIMATE ($29.16m true Friday + $10.3m Thu previews) Incredible.

I actually meant to say triple. 😄 (Realizing that sounds like a lot, but, it really isn't considering that would still be the low end of past Disney Thanksgiving releases.) Minions 2 is not a great comp here at this stage, IMHO, but I'd be curious to have my mind changed if there's a pattern developing already that I am not seeing. Just not sure the other intangibles line up (sequel, summer Friday release, Illumination and Gentleminion fad, etc.) Like I mentioned though, we shouldn't get too singularly focused on one metric quite yet in this situation. The purpose of tracking has to be include trying to project trends when we know the data at hand is insufficient, which is the case with pre-sales right now. That's why these ranges always evolve over time. I don't see enough data to indicate it would perform significantly below the low end of the current range, but that of course doesn't mean the current range will be correct ultimately. Now if buzz doesn't pick up, reviews are soft, presales don't pick up closer to release, then we definitely should reassess if needed. All that being said, what number(s) would you give it right now?

What are you comping it with? I personally would not put too much value in strictly monitoring pre-sales for this one just yet. It's an original film, opening midweek for a major holiday, and has several female-driven or female-friendly demographic movies ahead of it. That and families will be Wish's core audience. That said, pre-sales for all the major chains are weighted in the tracking range already and look to be about where I'd expect them to be for now. They are just weighted slightly less (for the high end of the range) than they would be for a major sequel or the like since they are not super informative at this point in the window (but will be closer to release). I would expect more of a slow burn in ticket sales for this one, pending buzz/reviews and speculative strike resolution in the next few weeks. If Wish cannot slightly more than double (EDIT: meant to say triple, and yes, I know that sounds like a lot...) Strange World's opening (at least), something will have gone very wrong but it would be something that isn't measurable quite yet.

Universal with a super early estimate of $34m Fri for FNAF, including previews.

My read is that they just need more production time and want their most competitive release dates... but yeah, it also could maybe be a bargaining tactic of some sort. I sincerely hope not. This needs to end.

Disney just pushed Elio (June) and Snow White (still March) to 2025.

2.647 Eras Thu Adding Halloween night shows also

$10.3m official FNAF previews

$10.3m official FNAF previews

This is a fair point, for sure. I'm anticipating something similar to Halloween Ends' -13% True Fri-to-Sat drop for FNAF, though maybe not quite as sharp if (big "if") the young audience and Halloween weekend aura can offset the other factors against it.

While it will probably be frontloaded in its own way, I don't think many datasets indicate that it will toward previews. The late addition of showtimes and PLF is a factor here, but also the target audience. Even though it is fan-driven (to what extent, we'll see), its core audience includes kids who are in school Thursday. The Friday and weekend sales tend to back this up from what I've seen. A lot of the demand we might ordinarily see for a Thursday preview of a major franchise targeting adults is instead spreading out into Friday and beyond because parents aren't as likely to take their kids to a movie on school+work night. I've never quite bought into the higher end of preview comps for FNAF in large part because of that and the other ATP variables, but it's all been fascinatingly debatable. For what it's worth, we "only" baked in $10m in previews for a $65-85M weekend. That would be the third best ever preview result for a horror film, but I get the sense some people will be disappointed with it because of some comps with pre-sales giving a false positive, of sorts, and leading to speculation of much higher numbers. And granted, it's still possible it goes over $10m... but the data seems to be coalescing toward that point now that we're heading into release hour (literally).

Just to clarify, "the model" spit out a number north of $80M (over the Blum record) but I pulled it back (but still over Halloween) slightly to account for all the ATP/streaming/reviews/video game/etc. factors especially after pre-sale tracking (KOTFM included) has been skewed toward the high end for several films in the last month or so.

If it's close enough, I sense Universal will help it get the Blumhouse record opening over Halloween 2018. Possibly even the day-and-date record over Black Widow, but we'll see about that one.

Friendly warning for After Death counters: That is an Angel Studios release, the same crowdfunding studio behind Sound of Freedom and His Only Son. Those and other faith-based films like Jesus Revolution, The Chosen, and Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist from recent times are probably going to be more relevant comps than traditional Hollywood titles.

Last week was $73M.

I would disagree on this. Most horror films of this ilk are the least impacted by the strike and are more capable of organic late stage pre-sales and walk-up business due to the nature of the genre and youth appeal, especially without major stars that would move the needle on the promotional trail (no disrespect to Josh Hutcherson).

FNAF final* forecast is up. After back-to-back releases and being too bullish, hopefully the third time this month is the charm. *unless the next 16-24 hours of pre-sales pacing is just putrid

I was a big Kong defender back in my youthful college days, but you're definitely not wrong about the pacing. I need to watch Dune again. Loved it but only saw it once.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: It doesn't matter how long a movie is; it matters how long a movie feels. And quite honestly, if it weren't Scorsese, KOTFM would be split into a 3- or 4-episode streaming miniseries in a heartbeat. (Said with all due respect for the craft and passion that went into that film.)