Shawn Robbins

Thank you. And congrats to the Phillies and their fans here (though I have qualms with *other* Philly fans attending those games, but that's a rant on a soapbox for another time)... Now I will crawl back into my depression hole and try to regroup my excitement for watching playoff baseball without the emotional attachment I had hoped I'd have the rest of the month.

Hearing we'll have an updated/final preview number within the next half hour or so.

I don't know if I'd agree $60m is low. That said, the range doesn't include the upper-upper-most band of what I think could happen... but I also think we have to be careful setting expectations too high, too soon. There are a lot of young FNAF fans (pre-teens and teens are the primary fan base), which means a lot of tickets at "bargain" prices compared to a lot of the PG-13 and R films FNAF is being compared to. My other headache is that exhibitors didn't start adding PLF until very recently (that alone should help pump up the ATP), and that -- like you alluded to -- the hybrid release raises concerns for walk-ups for a movie that's already potentially very fan-driven. That's especially if those late embargo reviews go the way of something negative like Exorcist: Believer instead of a more favorable Blumhouse audience movie (which I think is a bit of a factor in strong pre-sales as Blum is also a brand unto himself/itself). I'm just never a fan of an embargo going up hours before start time for a movie that doesn't need to worry about spoilers and is also going to be available to watch at home for (basically) free. That seems like a red flag, but there's also a possibility this kind of movie is review proof on Halloween weekend. TL;DR -- Internally, I'm with you and everyone thinking it's possible this could blow up even more... but looking at the average of all models, I think the current range is in a good spot based on all variables.

I agree with you, my bet is on them over-indexing. To what degree is the big variable, and this is partly where I feel the ATP may be undervalued across the board. Initially, we were all told the average prices would reflect Taylor's picks of $13.13 and $19.89 (correct me if I'm off on those exact figures, I'm typing from memory). But in the weeks since more exhibitors came on, those prices actually ended up higher with IMAX and other premium formats having surcharges (upwards of $30 or more per adult ticket in major markets). Those sales were also not part of the initial wave since it was originally just the big chains. So while I think the initial guesstimate was for all chains to see a 40-45% ticket price boost over the national average this year, what I've seen from the top selling showtimes indicates that could be anywhere between 50 to 80%. Basically, if we're talking raw admissions, I think we're all seeing similar trends. It's that ATP adjustment that feels nebulous and I have a hard time betting against Swift, especially when exhibitors are publicly putting a range like $120-125m for the weekend. They know the risks if they're too high on that.

I tossed in the final pinpoint ($131m) a little bit ago. I realize this is markedly higher than a few people in this thread think is possible now, but, that was technically the final forecast early yesterday and I won't have time to revise it today (not sure that I would if I did... hard to say). Even if it's on the high end, it's one I don't mind (too much) being off on given how few-to-zero true comparisons there are for this. It's going to have a HUGE result no matter what as a tentpole created out of thin air less than two months ago and I don't think any of us should lose sight of that when the actual numbers start rolling in tomorrow. I don't usually openly invite too many @s or PMs on these topics, but happy to address any questions via either method as to why the final is deviating from the fears of missing $100m. A lot of things in play, not the least of which is the average ticket price possibly skewing higher than expected.

It won't be that low, but... you're not terribly far off. =\

On this point, it looks like the Sat % share of Fri went from around 69% yesterday to around 77% Thu-Sat combined as of this morning. Friday has just been so booked up since the get-go, I think that's affecting all tracking comp paces and really throwing a wrench in extrapolating the weekend as a whole.

You may be misunderstanding the context with which I was using the term "skewed". Most Marvel films register 58-60% or more men on opening weekend. Captain Marvel, as their only female-led film up to that point, was 55%. The only other comparable film is Wonder Woman, which as mentioned, actually drew a majority female audience on opening weekend with 52%. Black Widow (58% male) is a toss-out comp as it opened mid-pandemic when adult women were statistically proven to be the most hesitant to come back to theaters in 2021. For all intents and purposes, that's as much hard proof as anyone will get to at least consider why The Marvels *could* (operative word there) have a similar or higher share (versus CM) of women turn out -- especially when considering the toxic online audience that has trashed the first film and its place in the franchise over the last four years, going so far as to review-bomb it upon release. Let's also remember this was scheduled to open right after Dune 2, a very male-heavy IP, before the latter bailed to 2024. So Disney themselves clearly were already banking on a strong female turnout to counter-program Dune's second weekend-that-is-no-more. It's not to say this *will* happen, but that it has to be considered under all the circumstances.

Also good points here. My initial comments were in regard to Taylor overshadowing everything among female audiences, who will be very important for The Marvels as a franchise movie with four women essentially in lead roles. In other words, it just contextualizes one reason (of many) pre-sales are so low right now. It's going to lose a big portion of its male audience from Captain Marvel with or without Taylor taking all the attention right now.

Captain Marvel skewed male largely because it acted as a bridge between the Avengers finale films and had massive casual audience interest because of that element, outweighing the fact it was MCU's first female-led movie which became a secondary factor in the shadow of much bigger hype between 2018 and 2019. This is also a movie starring three main female protagonists and a female antagonist. I wouldn't look to that film as a strong barometer for The Marvels *at the moment*, which is landing at a very different point in the franchise's overall life cycle. Wonder Woman might be the next best point of comparison, which did skew slightly female (52% versus CM's 45%). As for the Taylor Swift under $100m fears... I'm not convinced yet.

Tough to say, and anyone's guess. Under Quantumania feels like a given right now, but could 80-90 be within reach? That's tough at the moment. Everything would have to go right over the next four weeks for that to happen, including strong reviews and the end of the strike so that Brie and company can promote it heavily and push the "woman power" aspect with the entire cast.

Before everyone panics too much, we have to bear in mind that Marvels is probably going to be a female-skewing MCU film and its early pre-sale trends are likely depressed by the oncoming slaughterfest that is Taylor Swift -- who obviously dominates that core audience. It's safe to expect some backloading in Marvels' presales for that reason alone, compounded by general hesitation among fans which will limit the kind of rush-out sales we used to see with the franchise. That said... I've been very cautious on The Marvels in general and remain so. I wouldn't expect a major turnaround, but something of one (especially if reviews end up positive). These early sales are pretty much par for the course right now without the major hook the first CM had. The team and I will have the official/preliminary long range out later on Thursday or early Friday.

Really hoping FNAF gets the PLF treatment I personally think it's justified to have. My casual gaming community interactions in recent years have played into my bullish expectations for the movie since it was announced. That and my 12-year-old nephew's keen interest in it. 😄 Show counts + PLF and the hybrid release are really the main detractors for me at the moment. *Maybe* frontloading concerns, but it feels like it has a real shot to become Blumhouse's #2 opening behind Halloween (2018). Exhibitors just might need to match the demand and help those ATPs climb.

For our veteran counters here that have their data from two years ago, Dune might be an outside-the-box comp for FNAF. Hybrid release in October + PG-13 rating + pre-existing fan base but not a sequel + on sale at T-18 (vs. around T-26 for FNAF with some staggering). How the two pace against each other is the variable, of course, and COVID era walk-ups aren't the same as today. Dune similarly had a strong share of Friday shows relative to Thursday, largely because of IMAX and PLF demand (which, of course, also means some ATP adjustment as Freddy will be lower on that end). Might be valuable temporarily, long-term, or not at all. Just ran across it in my samples this week and saw some intriguing similarities in early sales.

I didn't realize @M37 had made an earlier post about being sold on $30M+ with a chance at $40M... my bad if it sounded like I was calling anyone out or taking sides. That said, if it misses, I don't think it'll be by much. If it goes over, maybe it can squeak past Nun II. It looks like final day pace was pretty solid, but the reviews (and trailers before those were available) have been keeping me on the conservative end for it. I feel like they're going to be more influential for a legacy franchise without the kind of built-in "younger" appeal of Nun/Conjuring, but we'll see.

Deadline's $30m for Exorcist comes from studio sources, but... I dunno. This is one I'd rather be careful on, much like Saw X last week, and be pleasantly surprised if it can significantly over-perform all of these data points in front of me. Going under for the final forecast today.

With what we're seeing so far in KOTFM, it may be time to christen the weekends of the 13th and 20th as... ... ... ...

$250K was from pre-Thu. Haven't received a confirmation on whether that's included in 1.6, but as @Jsmitty mentioned Deadline is saying that it is. Edit: Studios confirmed as well.

Probably rolled into Thursday, but still waiting on confirmation.

1.6 Creator

Official Preview Results The Creator: $1.6M (includes $250K pre-Thursday) Dumb Money: TBD PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie: none Saw X: $2.0M

What intrigues me is that I don't know if that means fans are hoping for higher or if that's higher than they expected. FWIW, I've been bullish on the movie since the day it was announced (would not be shocked with 40+). The PG-13 rating has a lot of potential to bring in younglings during Halloween weekend... but I also want to see if Uni/Blum can expand the audience and not get dinged by the hybrid release.

FNaF long range incoming. 33+

I want this for you and the world so badly.