chenguonk

Where did you find those numbers? They are far from correct. You can find numbers for IM and IM2 on the first post of this thread. IM2 increased a lot from IM, ~70%+ in admission. 2008 IM: 105.9M2008 TIH: 60M2010 IM2: 176.37M2011 Thor: 98.15M2011 CA: 96.15M(in Chinese yuan)However, I also think it's difficult for Avengers to get $100M in China.

So THG almost catches up with HP7.2 now, wow...

The numbers you mentioned here are in two different frames. One should always compare numbers from the same source. That is to say, in this case, $79M is estimated from Chinese online tracking as explained by firedeep, while $74M is the official number reported by the Chinese media. One can assume them from the same source (this is not really true of course )On the other hand, I guess both $58M and $67M are reported by the Fox company. If the so-called box office stealing behavior exists (this is not necessarily real stolen, maybe someone just doestn't want oversea companies get too much share. Anyway, this is just a guess), then it's easy to understand why oversea companies always report a number less than Chinese official report.So if one looks at the two differences again: $5M (79-74) and $ 9M (67-58), it is more reasonable now. Why the company estimate (58) is far less than the company actual (67)? In my opinion, they applied a normal model to do Sunday projection. However, in the record-breaking case, e.g. TF3 or Titanic 3D, the Sunday drop will be much better, as indicated by the online tracking. If they projected a 35% Sunday drop while it turned out 15%, that's around $3.4M in difference. Subtracted this, the difference between company estimate/actual, and the difference between Chinese estimate/actual, are almost the same: $5M v.s. $5.6M. What if they projected even worse? :rolleyes:Finally, no matter where the $5M difference comes from ( 1-stolen, 2-failed online tracking, 3-large uncertainty in Chinese box office statistics, etc), it is much more acceptable than those $20M gap

Great job! That's an excellent report And your color coding makes the reading easier. Thanks!

> firedeep:It takes me a while to get used to your new avatar.

Let's wait for the actual number on Tuesday. Here the actual number refers to the Chinese official report, not the BOM report.

What the company reports is one thing, which indicates how much they can get, however, what the actual box office is is another thing.The official numbers directly from China are always higher than that reported by the company. Obviously the former is more close to the actual box office. We all know the reason behind. Yes, the estimates might be higher than the Chinese official numbers. We should also notice that the Chinese official numbers are always higher than that reported on BOM.

I guess it's too difficult for the Avengers, considering that even all the released Marvel movies combined cannot reach the OW level of Titanic 3D...

No. It's just a normal week when students are in school and adults are at work.

I guess the $11.4M OD figure comes from here:http://www.weibo.com/2196767901/ye1cH3WgPThe last sentence said Titanic 3D did $4M OD in the US, however, $11.4 OD in China.The host of this weibo (or Chinese twitter) has reported a lot of estimates in the past. I would say most of them are close to the final official numbers.