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LonePirate

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Posts posted by LonePirate

  1. I don't think this will happen, in fact I give it less than a 10% chance of happening; but could Oppenheimer cross $100M on Monday?

     

    F: $33M

    S: $28M (24% increase from True Friday, $61M cume)

    S: $25M (11% decrease, $86M cume)

    M: $14M (44% decrease, $100M cume)

     

    IMAX and other PLF screens will stay packed/sold out all week and they are already comprising about 50% of the film's gross. That percentage will only increase as time passes. $100M after four days seems improbable but it's not impossible. 

    • Like 1
  2. 6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

    We need way more PLF’s. Convert 2-3 tiny screens at each theater into a giant PLF auditorium with a ton of seats and massive screens. 

    That's a lot easier said than done as you need to increase the vertical height when merging two smaller theaters in order add a larger screen. Knocking down a wall is a relatively minor remodel compared to adding 20-60 feet of height by lifting the ceiling and/or burrowing into the ground. I guess you might get lucky if the theaters are aligned vertically on two adjacent floors but most theaters are constructed horizontally with very few of them existing on multiple floors.

    • Sad 1
  3. I don't think the biggest lesson learned from this weekend will be that studios can release two wildly different high profile films on the same weekend and still do gangbusters business for both. Rather, the lesson will be theater chains scrambling to convert more of their screens to PLFs. I wouldn't be surprised if some execs at AMC start looking at plans for a new 12 screen complex they are building and try to determine how much extra it will cost to make it a 6 screen IMAX and 6 screen Dolby complex.

    • Like 5
  4. 20 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

    Any guesses on Saturday numbers yet??

    Based on my amateur interpretation of the numbers in the tracking thread, it would seem Barbie is headed for about a 10% increase over true Friday while Oppenheimer is looking at maybe a 20%-25% increase over true Friday. I welcome others who are far better at interpreting that info, though.

    • Like 2
  5. 9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

    Wait, does Barbie even have much of any 3D/PLF showings? I just realized how absolutely absurd that could make this opening if not. All of our all-timers were big big 3D/PLF movies. 

    P2d0m7c.jpg


    This is in the Dallas area. AMCs across the US and Canada have Barbie playing in plenty of PLFs. I don’t think it is in 3D anywhere but it doesn’t matter.

     

    • Like 1
  6. 5 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

    I can see a scenario where Opp does 
    10.5 
    25
    35
    31.5 

    102M weekend. I'm expecting a strong Sat and Sun due to runtime, spillover, appealing to older crowd and people having more time to do a Barbenheimer double feature. A lot of things have to go right for numbers to be that high though. 

    Simply due to the target audience being at work during the day on Friday, I expect Saturday to reasonably higher than true Friday for Oppy. Sunday is more of an unknown as the daytime shows will be more heavily attended than Friday but the late evening/night shows will only have a fraction of the attendees, apart from large city IMAX/70mm screens. Those are going to be packed for the next month and possibly even through Labor Day if it can maintain those screens. 

    • Like 1
  7. 3 minutes ago, Redolent said:

    Oppenheimer target audience has woken up from their naps. The fightback begins.

     

    Old Man Technology GIF by The Mole Agent

    There was at least a 50 year age gap between the people on my left and on my right at my Oppenheimer showing yesterday and everybody was of voting age. 
     

    I think pretty much every STEM and History professor will make an effort to see Oppenheimer with plenty of grads in those disciplines also lining up to see it. Mix in the younger skewing Nolan fans along with the awards circuit fans and you have a wide berth of people, personalities and ages seeing the film.

    • Like 1
  8. 10 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

    Oppenheimer numbers strong hopefully WOM is good 

    WOM is not going to be a problem for it. The lack of showings due to its runtime, the limited number of PLFs and a lack of screens in general are the only things holding back the film's performance.

    • Thanks 1
  9. 5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    How did the audience react to the long movie. 

    The movie’s length did not seem to pose a problem almost certainly because of the pacing of the film and the viewer investment in that last hour. It truly does feel more like a two hour movie than a three hour movie.

     

    There was even a smattering of applause afterwards and audiences never, ever clap in my area. There’s just so much to love about the film and because she is not being mentioned enough, Blunt was incredible. The film is winning so much Oscar gold.

  10. 8 minutes ago, baumer said:

    I still don't understand how rescuing children from sex trafficking is considered conservative or liberal or right or left or up or down or whatever. Maybe this marketing strategy is to go to churches and get people interested but it's not a religious film it's about child trafficking and I just think that kind of subject would be something that might peak everybody's interest.

    The issue itself is not left or right leaning. However the right has massively politicized it and has been falsely accusing people on the left of child trafficking in the US since at least the Pizzagate gaslighting in 2016. That has morphed into the current day controversy of the right accusing teachers, drag queens and LGBT people of grooming children which is nothing but pure bigotry and ignorance since north of 98% of all child abuse or trafficking or grooming situations in the US is from heterosexuals and quite commonly those with a religious connection. From what I have heard of the film, it excessively exaggerates the history/story of the main character. It also preys on ridiculous fears of kids being kidnapped to foreign countries given that far more trafficking occurs within or to the US than from the US outward.

    • Like 9
    • Thanks 1
  11. I think theater complexes and chains are a couple of years behind where audiences are with regard to what they want from a cinematic experience and some films are paying a price. Moviegoers want massive screens with 4K projection and exceptional Dolby quality (or better) sound along with comfy seating. Otherwise they will stay home and watch something on their 65 inch 4K TV on their couch.
     

    It’s expensive to refurbish existing cinemas as floors will need to be lowered or roofs raised in order to accommodate the larger screen sizes. New cineplex construction seems to be limited now and mostly focused on serving food, which is something people wanted five years ago but not as much now. Sound upgrades are needed and cheaper to implement; but people want larger screens and better pictures, not vibrating seats. Theater owners are slow to learn this. Perhaps the studios can nudge them in that direction.

    • Like 1
  12. Here are the 5pm and 9pm showings for Opp at the Regal IMAX I attend. The 7pm MI7 showing I attended in this same theater last Thursday night had maybe 80 people in it. There are about 600 total seats here. F/S are running shows at 11/3/7/11 and the 7pm shows both days have sold about 15% more seats than either of tonight’s shows but the 11pm show has sold about 60% less. The 11am shows are relatively light but the 3pm shows are solid, especially Saturday. Domestically, Sat could see an increase from true Fri which is almost certainly due to the target audience working during the first shows on Friday.

     

    LP9n9q2.jpg0kvhADQ.jpg

    • Like 2
  13. The AMC less than a mile from where I live is splitting its Dolby screen between Barbie (late morning and late night) and Oppenheimer (afternoon and evening) so I have a true Barbenheimer double feature planned with the first showing of each film on Friday. The stellar reviews for both have confirmed I made the right decision.

    • Astonished 1
  14. 1 hour ago, ZackM said:

    T-3 Friday Comps for Oppenheimer

     

    Indy5 - 40-45M

    A2 - 30-35M

    JWD - 34-39M

    MI7 - 40-45M

    I think there have been only 13 films so far this year that have had opening weekends larger than the average of these comparisons for Oppenheimer's possible Friday. If it somehow hits above the average of those ranges, there is a chance it could hit $100M for the weekend. I personally don't think it can reach that lofty height at all; but it's still insane that it has even the tiniest of chances. For a three hour period drama starring an actor most people could not identify, this is unprecedented, especially considering another film is likely going to gross between $150M-$200M this weekend. Does Inside Out still hold the record for highest grossing non-#1 opening weekend?

  15. 13 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

     

    That's the funny thing about Jeff Sneider's comment. He was accusing the more positive reviewers on this movie of being fake critics or newcomer critics. But if you look closely, it's actually the critics who are not labeled Top Critics or part of MetaCritic that are actually dragging down the score right now. LOL

    I think the Top Critics are approaching this film as art and the awards-bait, technical achievement that it is while the other reviewers, especially the self-employed ones, are viewing the film from an entertainment angle. This happens a lot during the winter and holidays when the Oscar contenders are released. For this film, it’s happening in July instead. There’s no right or wrong way to review a film so long as you support your views in a consistent and reasonably intelligent manner. Not a good use of IMAX is an absurd critique.

  16. 10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

     

    How are Collider bros, Geeks of this and that, Nerds of this and that allowed? None of these Youtubers are real critics but amateurs with video blogs. Grace is singled out cause she dared to admit she didn't enjoy this movie instead of BSing and beating around the bush with phrases like "the movie is ambitious" and "there's a lot to process".

    I don’t have too many problems if some reviewer doesn’t like this film or another film so long as they can support their reasoning and it’s consistent with their prior opinions/reviews. She said the film had too much talking. I may or may not agree with such a view but I would still consider that a valid perspective for some people or some films. It makes sense to me. Just come out and say you found the film boring. That’s fine. However, the other “reasons” in her RT blurb are completely nonsensical. It’s tough to take her seriously as a result.

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