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Burgess

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Posts posted by Burgess

    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    It's all a question of how much do they need the cashflow from NTTD and how soon, given the film's already been through 3 release date changes now. 

    To be fair, a marketing campaign was never attached to two of those previously announced release dates. But you bring up a good point about cash flow. I have to imagine that everyone involved (including MGM’s debt holders) see the logic and necessity in delaying NTTD theatrical release. There’s not really any good options, even with paid digital downloads, that can replace theater revenue. Assuming that advertising costs for the biggest films would stay the same for VOD, it’s cheaper than ever for studios to release films theatrically.


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Given MGM has basically nothing else apart from Bond, they may have no choice but to VOD if theatres don't reopen in November. Even Universal, given how they're leading the charge on PVOD at the moment, might be okay with this. Only people who might not be are EON/the producers.

    Maybe, but everyone is in the same position. With theme parks, movie theaters and current productions all shut down is Disney or Universal in any better position than MGM right now? If MGM’s plan is to use NTTD as leverage for a sale then sitting on a billion dollar earner with hundreds of millions in downstream media potential makes sense when it’s your only blockbuster. Unlike Disney and Uni, MGM isn’t juggling $100m+ loans for a half dozen (or more) unreleased films.

    Given worldwide events, January - March 2021 may be just as viable as April 2020 (pandemic notwithstanding) if NTTD has to move again.


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Given MGM has basically nothing else apart from Bond, they may have no choice but to VOD if theatres don't reopen in November. Even Universal, given how they're leading the charge on PVOD at the moment, might be okay with this. Only people who might not be are EON/the producers.

    Maybe, but everyone is in the same position. With theme parks, movie theaters and current productions all shut down is Disney or Universal in any better position than MGM right now? If MGM’s plan is to use NTTD as leverage for a sale then sitting on a billion dollar earner with hundreds of millions in downstream media potential makes sense when it’s your only blockbuster. Unlike Disney and Uni, MGM isn’t juggling $100m+ loans for a half dozen (or more) unreleased films.

    Given worldwide events, January - March 2021 may be just as viable as April 2020 (pandemic notwithstanding) if NTTD has to move again.


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    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Maybe I’m naive but the title is weird there’s literally I reason this needs to move. It’s not being released for almost 2 months lmao. The virus is already declining in Wuhan...


    What about the rest of world? China is a major market but it’s only one of several that are grappling with COVID-19. The Chinese have been fighting this thing since November of 2019, and are just now starting to recover.


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    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Oh fuck off. You know that's not what I was saying, save that holier than thou bullshit for somewhere else. I'm saying that there's not going to be some kind of mass population quarantine like this is the disease from Planet of the Apes or some shit, and that teens/young adults (Marvels biggest target demographics) are still going to be able to go to the movies two months from now.


    No, I didn’t know what you were trying to say. It helps to actually just say what you mean like you did in the above post.

    You don’t know that there won’t be a mass quarantine or restrictions of public gatherings. The Chinese quarantined 50 million people for a couple of months so the scenario you say won’t happen did happen for one major country. It doesn’t take a 28 Days Later-style quarantine to cripple an economy or stop teenagers from going to the movies.


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    Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Do people think we'll be living in 28 Days Later or some shit in May? The people most impacted by the virus are the very young, the very old, or people with immune system issues. Some people are acting like this is the apocalypse.


    Whether or not we trust in the science, the fact is that the way in which governments and business are combating the spread of COVID-19 is impacting the entertainment business. The emergency response will continue to affect the entertainment business through the next several months. So, studios will have to adjust. It’s simply a practical matter.

    Also, don’t take offense, but to shrug your shoulders at the possible deaths of the young and old and sick is inhuman. Swap in Black or Jew as demographic descriptors to really hear how absurd your statement sounds. The responsibility of government is to save lives and that’s what they’re trying to do.


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    I am sure that EON ran all the numbers very carefully before making this decision and decide that hit they would take by delaying would be smaller then that by sticking with the original release date. taking hit was inevitable, it was allabout deciding which course of action would result in the hit being as small as possible.
    This is not to say they might be mistaken, but I am saying I would trust the judgement of professionals in the film industry over the speculation of some poster on a forum who probably could not run a street corner Lemonade stand successfully.
    I enjoy second guessing and kibitzing the film industry as much as anybody, but I don't fool myself that I competent to run a studio.


    We’re on the same page. They did the smart thing.


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    Posted this on Twitter, some speculation to throw out there - could we see an autumn festival run happen? First off, the film - for once, for a major blockbuster - should actually be fully done to make that happen. Unlike previous Bonds with very very tight post production schedules. Secondly, the success of A Star is Born & Joker on the circuit - particularly the latter - surely has opened doors to other studio blockbusters to use that as a launchpad. While those were admittedly more awards-positioned in a way Bond may not be, we did have Knives Out... And with Bond being a more 'prestige' blockbuster franchise, festival ambitions - doesn't have to be competition - would fit right in. Can also take place of a more conventional press/premiere tour partly, is doing festivals more or less expensive than bespoke premieres? From a fan POV, of course the possibility of seeing the film as early as late August/early September is exciting after the gut punch of a delay. Bond isn't nearly on the Marvel/Star Wars level of spoiler paranoia and bad actor leak risks, not nearly as much a concern. Like, no one leaked out whodunnit in Knives Out after TIFF, right? Or at least hasn't spammed the film's hashtags with it. In any case such a move, while unprecedented (as this whole situation is) could be a smart way to build *fresh* word of mouth back up, I would argue. After months upon months of delays, word of mouth from people actually seeing the film leading into it finally coming out, would be quite a thing. But, will these autumn festivals even go ahead with the virus situation? And more importantly, this would require a ton of confidence in the film being positively received. Months of mixed or negative reviews leading to release would be hard to overcome image wise, though Joker has showed to a certain extent that it doesn't matter as much?

    Possible timeline:

    - Venice world premiere: Sept 2-12

    - TIFF North America/IMAX premiere: Sept 10-20

    - LFF - Surprise Film slot as to not cannibalise Royal Albert Hall premiere? Oct 7-18

    And close off with the usual RAH premiere in early November.

     

    That’s a good idea! They really only need to make a splash with one of those festivals to get buzz going. Given Bond’s international appeal, Venice may be the most logical and conducive to a warm welcome. See the Joker’s reception at Venice compared to TIFF.

     

    Could they even do a separate Bond film festival that dovetails into one of those other festivals with NTTD? Uni held a streaming concert just to premier the F9 trailer.

     

    Things could get creative.

     

     

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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    No it's not about China alone. The market disturbed so far are basically Italy and SK for now. Rest are doing what is expected from holdovers. Anyways, leaving out China, the film will be losing $50-70mn, with delay, which will be recovered by an additional gross of $125-175mn internationally. Further the revenue from home video will be delayed by an year as well from now, which also bear a present value cost.

     

    So I would have pick recent date, as picked by Disney for Mulan and Widow.

     

    That’s assuming exhibitors (theater chains) have the capacity to take on another Blockbuster in the the middle of the Spring/Summer schedule. Also, if the consensus is that things will get worse before they get better then MGM was smart to push NTTD out as far into 2020 as is financially viable. Disney may not be able to move Mulan due to theater contracts and BW could still be moved.

     

     

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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    I think they should have released the film in April. They will taking a hit of $30-50mn in marketing & $25-30mn Interest. That's roughly $55-80mn, which need additional gross of $125-180mn, which I don't think they were losing.
     
    China is shut down but its not like film was going to earn significantly there which can be earned later as well as we have seen with many delayed release.


    But the loss in gross wasn’t just from China. If it had, I’d think they would be releasing in April. But most, if not all, of South East Asia is shuttered. Also parts of Europe and the Middle East. They were looking at a $300m loss, at least.


    “...theaters across the world have been shuttered in recent weeks, stretching from Japan to Italy. That could have resulted in a minimum of 30 percent shaved off the final box office tallies — a possible $300 million out of a likely $1 billion global haul.”


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/news/mgm-take-30-million-hit-moving-bond-film-no-time-die-1282803


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    No Time To Die | October 8 2021 | 82% on RT | RIP Sean Connery

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

     
    In case nobody remembers, the swine flu in 2009 infected millions and killed over 200 thousand people worldwide. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be concerned about coronavirus, but it puts things in perspective. 


    That’s a good point but in that comparison the question is whether enough was done in 2009 to prevent the death of 200,000 people worldwide. Do we want to accept that hundreds of thousand of people can die now because it happened before?


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