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harry713

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Posts posted by harry713

    Weekday numbers July 10-13

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, baumer said:

     

    No.

     

    They have a brand new thing they do which has never been done before I don't think. They encourage people to purchase tickets for those who don't have the financial wherewithal to go see the movie. They purchase them, the tickets go up on the website and they are free for anybody to claim. So the grosses are not artificially inflated, it's real money.

     

    When does it count towards the box office? When a ticket is claimed or when the the donation is made?

    Weekday numbers July 10-13

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

    It's at least $2M or above, we know that. No final numbers for it yet though. The fact it's still over $2M is really impressive, the little movie that could.

    25th day over 2m (nonconsecutive) It should pick up another 2-3 days this weekend as well. #ElementalSweep

    Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by harry713

    7 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

    No SAG means no talk show appearances, no interviews, no press tour, no red carpet. Promotion goes down, meaning less eyes on the film, meaning less word, meaning less walk-ups.

     

    Ah ok that's what I figured. Well in that case Barbie and Opp are fine. They've been in the public eye with various promotions and brand deals for weeks now. Even if that stopped this week I don't think it's going to change anything. 

    • Like 1

    Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

    SMB didn't get what it got because of "lack of competition". What actually happened was a substantial teen/adult audience got cannibalized from other movies by it.

    Of course SMB didn't succeed because of lack of competition. It exploded out the gate with incredible demand. It was already a success after its first week.

    However, it was able to achieve a near 4x multi after such a high opening thanks in part to it being the only option for certain crowds for an entire month. When competition did hit in May it saw its first steep dip.

    • Like 1

    Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by harry713

    11 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

    If you look at the raw multiplier, sure, but a 3.92x multiplier after opening to $146m is one of the highest ever for a $100m+ opener, I think only Avatar 2, TGM and Wonder Woman have done better. 

     

    I'm not trying to discredit Elemental's legs here, just making an observation that we've seen twice already in the last year that a lack of competition on the kids animated front can be extremely helpful to your shelf life. Puss 2 did 15x over the winter because it had like 4 months to itself until Mario came along lol. 

    I agree about the marketplace being open. I guess what I mean't is SMB exploded out the gate with crazy demand and then was carried to a nice multi with great legs due to lack of competition. Elemental was DOA and is now carrying itself to a respectable total thanks to WOM and lack of competition. So while they both have some of the summer seasons best legs, they came about them in different ways. 

    • Like 2

    Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

    It's a good movie, but I think Mario proved that you don't need to be Citizen Kane to get great holds when you're the only animated feature available to the family demographic. Theatres won't drop this until at least TMNT in early August so the holds should be stellar until then. 

    Once the dust settles I don't think SMB's 3.9x multiplier is going to be all that comparable to Elemental's 5.5-6x.

    • Like 2

    Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by harry713

    1 hour ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:

     

    Told ya it'd get to $10m!

     

     

    Assuming Sunday was revised up to 3.4m... 

     

    mon 1.7m (-50%)

    tues 2.55m (+50%)

    wed 1.8 (-29%)

    thurs 1.65 (-8%)

    fri 2.3 (+39%)

    sat 3.0 (+30%)

    sun 2.6 (-13%)

    5th wkd 7.9 (-21%)

    total: 125.22

     

    tho based on this film's history I wouldn't be surprised at better holds and a 5th weekend over 8m. 

     

    Sound of Freedom || Discussion of The Movie And Its Producers Should be HERE and HERE ONLY || The Report Button Is Your Friend || Keep It Civil

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

    People have no problems seeing the latest Tom Cruise movie despite the fact that he's a Scientologist and part of an exploitative cult, but then turn around and refuse to watch this one because Jim Caviezel is involved with strange conspiracy theories and cults? What's the difference?

     

    Not saying I have a problem with people watching either, quite the opposite, but it's just funny seeing the blatant hypocrisy.

    I think if TC were to actively promote his religion/cult and any beliefs behind it as part of the marketing for his films it would likely drive away a large portion of his audience. 

    • Like 3

    July 5 & 6 Numbers Thread

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

    and if I may venture one more post while sticking only to Elementals box office w/o being banned, it had a terrible opening with what does look like very good legs. I just thought that shows some hesitation in audiences or failure of Disney to get people opening weekend and wanted to share my part. People will have all different reasons as these are big audiences, but the Disney + excuse doesn't square for me since other movies don't have this problem (NWH, Puss in Boots, Avatar, Mario, TGM) and Disney always gets tons of excuses to demand they do not have a cultural problem.

    Every movie is going to end up on streaming. Not every movie is released by a company that has a controversial brand trust rating and used to pander to family values goers. Just compare Disney releases and advertising from 25 years ago to now and it looks like a completely different company for a different audience.

     

    The only real comparable movie you listed, Puss in Boots, did fail on opening weekend, and only later made up for it with incredible holds.

     

    Not to mention Avatar 2 also had a softer than expected 'disappointing' opening weekend followed by incredible holds to end up with an over 5x multiplier. 

    • Like 4

    July 5 & 6 Numbers Thread

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

     

    You literally lose on the first sentence.

     

    Movie hasn't opened in every market yet, it's having Titanic-sized runs in certain countries (namely South Korea), it's holding monstruously OS as well. It's already at 100 million OS without UK, Japan and some European countries.

     

    150 million DOM + 250 million internationally for 400 million is not at all unlikely and it'll likely come closer to that than 300 million.

     

    But whatever, if you're happier with the argument that it's unsalvageable, cool, good for you.

     

    Not to mention Disney/Pixar (and children's films in general) collect from ancillaries unlike most other types of properties. The fact that Disney's main moneymakers are their parks and merch lines, if this film proves to be as popular among families as Coco has, they'll have more than made their money back in the long run. 

    • Like 1

    July 5 & 6 Numbers Thread

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    If we look at Elemental's weekly grosses, broken down from Thurs - Wed:

     

    wk1

    2.4(prev) + 9.3 + 9.8 + 8.1 + 5.3 + 4.9 + 3.6

    43.4m

     

    wk2

    3.6 + 5.6 + 7.3 + 5.5 + 2.7 + 4 + 2.9

    31.6m (-27.2%)

     

    wk3

    2.5 + 3.5 + 4.3 + 4.4 + 3 + 2.8 + 2

    22.5m (-28.8%)

     

    97.5 total so far...

     

    Using a 28% weekly descent:

    wk4 16.2

    wk5 11.7

    wk6 8.4

    wk7 6.1

    wk8 4.3

    wk9 3.1

    wk10 2.2

    wk 11 1.6

     

    151.1 total through Labor Day week. Now this doesn't account for competition and theater/screen losses, nor any holiday boosts on certain weeks, but I think this average will split those differences.

     

    I think it will finish around 155-165m dom. 

    • Like 9

    July 5 & 6 Numbers Thread

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by harry713

    3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

    Joy Ride feels like a non-starter (unfortunate, I thought it could be the next Girls Trip… oh well) so I doubt it’s effect on NHF will be substantial.

     

    Yeah when selecting a showing for this weekend all the theaters were still mostly empty.

     

    However I was barely able to find seats for Barbie already. Had to use one of my three A-List reservation slots for it already which makes it harder to book other films in the meantime. Barbie is going to explode. 

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