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Posts posted by Fake
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Looks like EG will finish with 2.75B or so. Not bad by any means, but coming so close to the all-time record and missing it.... does cause some disappointment.
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4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
yes. I am sure by hook or crook Disney will report that Endgame has beaten Avatar. Its inevitable. Suddenly you will see better ER or holds which are crazy good. This will include domestic as well.
Yes... but I expected the fudge to start from this weekend, however Disney "allowed" Endgame to drop over 50% both domestically and overseas.
Another 171M is required to reach Avatar. China will add 4M or so before its runs ends, so that leaves 167M. DOM and OS-C weekends were 30M and 40M respectively. Based on the current trends, I'd expect further 70M from DOM and 80M from OS-C. So Disney needs to fudge around 20M or so.
Endgame will be at 2643-2645M before weekend begins, 145M away from its target. So the next WW weekend must be over 40M to have a shot at Avatar.
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This weekend must be over 80M, if EG has to beat Avatar. Fingers crossed.
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2 hours ago, Olive said:
Official news, AEG will end its run on May 23rd, Disney asked for an extension, but not permitted by Film Bureau.
Damn! Could have done 7-8M more with extension. And that amount may prove crucial in the fight to beat Avatar.
Will finish with 626-627M.
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Nice bump with actuals. In the race to beat Avatar, every million counts.
Will cross 2.5B marks today. What a run!
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1 hour ago, danhtruong5 said:
Do you think Disney will have action to push the gross of the movie when they feel it is close enough? Have they ever done that before? I dont know, I just heard that idea of some people?
Yes, certainly. "Highest grossing movie of all time" honour is not something anyone is going to let go of that easily, especially when it is so close.
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Endgame will be at 2540M before the start of next weekend (Weekdays - 19M domestic, 6M China, 29M OS-C). So that leaves around 250M to beat Avatar. China should add another 15M after next Thursday, so WW-C needs to do further 235M.
Lets' have a comparison b/w IW and EG from 3rd weekend onwards:
IW DOM IW OS-C EG DOM EG OS-C 3rd weekend 62M 81M 63M 84M weekdays 18.3M 28M 19M 29M 4th weekend 29.5M 32M further gross 83M 75M Multi frm 4th wknd 3.82x 3.34x IW had 3.56x multiplier from its WW-C weekend. EG probably won't get it that high, but 3.2x seems probable. Which means that if it can get 75M WW-C next weekend, it will gross further 165M.
Current projections:
EG DOM EG OS-C China Worldwide Gross b/f 4th wknd 742M 1181.5M 616.5M 2540M 4th weekend 33M (-47.5%) 42M (-50%) 7M (-60%) 82M further gross 80M (3.4X) 86M (3.05X) 7M* 173M Multi frm 4th wknd 855M 1310M 630M 2795M *without extension. If China gets extension, it will add further ~5M.
Thus, it is going to be very very close, but I am still favoring EG to surpass Avatar.
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37 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:
Domestic estimates for Friday came in at 16m
(1) Avengers: Endgame Walt Disney $16,060,000 +114% 4,662 $3,445 $676,505,739 15 Damn! Now domestic looking to finish with 850-855M.
China will wrap up with 630M or so.
So OS-C needs to do 1310M to beat Avatar. For that, OS-C Friday needs to be over 20M.
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4 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:
OK, I found it
Last week Friday: DOM = 40.6M, China = 35.81M ( china had holiday) , OS- China = 52.39M
This week, we have China = 4.15M, assume DOM = 16M, Assume OS-China drop 60%, then:
20,96+16+4,15 >40M
Yeah. For DOM, I'd say 17-18M. Harsh Thu drop will be somewhat corrected by large Friday jump.
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9 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:
Do you have the number of OS-China friday last week?
In 52-53M range.
This Friday, should do 20M+. China is doing 4M+. Overall should be over 24M.
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This Friday number is the key. Whatever amount it grosses on Friday, it will do 12x of that during the rest of the run. For example, if it does 40M today, it will gross 480M or so including Friday (4x IM for 160M Fri-Sun and 3x multiplier from Fri-Sun). EG is 2328.2M as of Thursday. Another 480M will take its gross past 2.8B.
However, if it comes 38M or lower, I would concede that it might miss Avatar.
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Lol @ the overreactions on this forum. One good number and $3B talks start and onr not-so-good number and it's gonaa miss Avatar!
The question isn't whether it is gonna surpass Avatar, but when. Looking at the current trend, the prediction of overtaking Avatar by Memorial weekend is far too optimistic, and the earliest it could get there seems to be 1st weekend of June. It may take another couple of weeks to get there if drops are not as good as hoped, but it will get there for sure.
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15 minutes ago, john2000 said:
its already at 1.606 billion os though , so after this weekend it will be more like 1.7 also dom will finish over 855 more like 900 +
Yeah... edited original post... all OS figures were inadvertently typed 200m lower, WW figures were correct though.
And I have projected only till 2nd June. Its runs will continue thereafter.
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3 hours ago, Nakamura said:
It doesnt seem to beat Avatar with this drop
It will beat Avatar for sure, though it may take some time.
Projected grosses for EG
12/5 - 735 + 1770 = 2505
19/5 - 795 + 1860 = 2655
26/5 - 830 + 1910 = 2740
2/6 - 855 + 1935 = 2790
Should add another 60M+ from here.
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Seems like this week Mon-Thu will do around 100M, and Fri-Sun will do another 100M (-60%)
Mon: 34M
Tue: 24M
Wed: 21M
Thu: 19M (CUME: 1.67B)
Fri: 25M
Sat+Sun: 75M (CUME: 1.77B)
DOM is looking to reach 730-735M by Sunday, so the tally should just about cross 2.5B by next Sunday.
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2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
$35mn Approx Overseas Monday. Cume $1609mn Approx.
By Thursday I expect $1675mn Approx.
If this is your guesstimate, you need to specify it as such. Otherwise it gives false impression that it is official number and hence creates confusion.
BTW, 'officially', weekend actuals will be reported today. Monday numbers will be reported tomorrow.
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OS - CH + RUS
Infinity War:
WKND1: 382.8M
WKND2: 145.6M / 696.4M cume
TOTAL: 960M
Endgame:
WKND1: 536M
WKND2: 185M / 960.6M
OW for EG was around 40% higher compared to IW, but 2nd weekend is only 27% higher. Alternatively, weekend drop was 65.5% for EG as compared to 62% for IW.
IW got a 2.81x multiplier from its 2nd weekend. Given that EG seems more frontloaded and also that EG faces major competition in its 3rd week as compared to 4th week for IW, I would say a multiplier of 2.6-2.7x from 2nd weekend is more likely. This translates into a further gross of 300-310M taking the total to 1.26-1.27B.
As China and Russia will finish with 625M and 45M respectively, the OS final total seems to be headed for 1.93-1.94B.
(All this is with the current estimates; if the actuals go up by 3-4m, then the final projected totals will also go up by 10m.)
Avatar is going down WW, but I'm afraid 3B is no longer possible.
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12 minutes ago, Nakamura said:
You think os-china after this 2nd weekend can pull another 320M ?
Like I mentioned, IW OS-C pulled another 280M after 2nd weekend. And EG 2nd weekend was around 35% higher than IW. I would wager another 350M or so for 1.35B OS-C finish.
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17 minutes ago, Nakamura said:
Assume china = 600, dom = 880, os-china = 1320 (33% higher than iw)
600+ 880 + 1320 = 2800
China will do 625M. It will be close to 610M after next Sunday itself.
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2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
I was talking about Avatar OS. Avatar WW is toast in 2-3 weeks or so.
Aah. I see. For getting to Avatar OS, OS-Ch needs to get 1.4B minimum (as China will wrap with 625M or so).... After this weekend OS-C will be at 1B with a 200M Fri-Sun, so the requirement would be 3x multiplier. For comparison, IW OS-C did a further 280M after 148M Fri-Sun (2.89x).
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5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
I think Endgame legs will stabilize after initial frontloading bcos its OW was ridiculous. But once it hit sane levels it will have a good run. so late run domestic/OS should be good. So it could take until well into summer for us to know if some benchmarks(TFA Dom or 1.0A) will be breached.
TFA DOM looks pretty difficult as of now. EG Fri was 29.2% higher than IW, and if it can maintain the same lead throughout the rest if its run (which I doubt), it will finish with 914M. 900M is a more realistic target.
Avatar WW is going down for sure, unless it crashes spectacularly.
Next weekend drop is the key.
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EG should be exactly at 2.2B acter the weekend. DOM should be 620M while OS should be 1.58B (Another 30M from China and 150M from the rest of the markets).
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Thinking 150-155M DOM weekend, 68-70M china and 220-230M OS-CH 3-Day.
Cumes will be 625M DOM + 580M CH + 1125M OS-CH = 2.23B
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Projecting further run:
WKND/WEEK - DOM - CHN - OS-C = WW
Weekend 1: 357 - 330.5 - 536 - 1223.5
Weekday 1: 115 - 190 - 205
Weekend 2: 153 - 80 - 235 = 468
(WW Cume: 625+600+975 = 2200)
Weekday 2: 40 - 25 - 85
Weekend 3: 70 - 20 - 90 = 180
(WW Cume: 735+645+1150 = 2530)
Weekday 3: 20 - 10 - 30
Weekend 4: 40 - 10 - 45 = 95
(WW Cume: 795+665+1225 = 2685)
Rest of run: 105 - 10 - 100 = 215
WW Final: 900+675+1325 = 2900
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AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted
Took a bit longer than expected, but Disney was never gonna let it fall short after coming so close....
WHAT AN ACHIEVEMENT!! Totally deserved!
And the trend of a new worldwide champion every decade continues.