Fake
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Posts posted by Fake
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8 minutes ago, john2000 said:
if true that would be a good drop ?
Yes..... in line with IW drop.
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Projecting OS dailies for the week:
Cume as of Tuesday: 1054M (389M CHN + 665M Rest)
Wednesday: 151M (75M CHN + 76M Rest), 1205M cume
Thursday: 95M (55M CHN + 40M Rest), 1300M cume
Friday: 90M (40M CHN + 50M Rest), 1390M cume
Sat+Sun: 185M (40M CHN + 145M Rest), 1575M cume
Weekend would probably be reported as 315M (80M China + 35M 7Day Russia OW + 200M from holdovers (62.7% drop))
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1 minute ago, HouseOfTheSun said:
216.5 at 2.
Was at 315.4M @2PM yesterday. So 99M behind as of now.
Yesterday add further 186M after this point. Current pace seens to be 75-80% that of yesterday. If today continues at 80% of the pace for the remainder of the day, it will add a further 149M from here. So a 365M finish (-27.5%).
Tomorrow and Saturday should show a similar drop based on presales trend. I am thinking it will just about hit the 4B mark on Sunday.
Cume till Wed: 3105M
Thu: 365M
Fri: 265M
Sat: 190M
Sun: 75M
4000m cume.
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7 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:
A holiday is a Saturday on steroids. Yup. nice.
Saturday was before a workday. Run rate should be strong tonight.
We saw the RR dip after 1400 on Sat. Lets see if it can hold
Seems to be dropping already.
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30 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:
What was Endgames best hourly increase on Saturday? It's up 20mil~ in the last 30min
EG added nearly 56m from 12-2PM on Saturday. However, Wednesday is looking to add 64M or so!!
EG added further 153M after 2PM on Sat. So it should add another 175-180M after 2PM which would take it in 500M vicinity.
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4 minutes ago, Silver Surfer said:
So $600m+ final is a lock?
Yes. It should get there the Sunday after this one. However, it won't add a lot after that and will finish in $625-630M region. $650M is the high end I am thinking.
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3 minutes ago, druv10 said:
252M, it has started with a bang this morning!!!
500M looks very likely now. First time ever a movie with 3 days over 500M Yuan, unfucking believable .
I won't say very likely yet. This is what happened last Saturday too when the projections went into 600-700m territory. Huge presales mean evening additions will slow down instead of accelarating, as majority of seats for the evening shows are already sold out.
Added 21m in the last hour. On Saturday EG added 20.7M during 11-12. It went on to add another 208M for the rest of the day (10x).
I am thinking 11x as of now for 480-485m finish.
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20m in the last hour.
450m is locked. There may be an outside shot at 500m. Will know more in a couple of hours.
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The all-time worldwide record is the target for EG IMO and I bet it gets there comfortably. To get the record, EG needs to increase 36.1% over IW.
DOM OW was 38.5% higher.
OS (excluding China & Russia) OW was 40% higher.
Now $600M in China is a lock (which is 60% higher than IW). So even after allowing for slightly worse legs in DOM and OS-C, WW record should be achieved.
Current projections:
DOM: 900M (32.5% increase from IW)
OS-C: 1325M (33.2% increase from IW)
CHN: 625M
TOTAL: 2850M
Next record in line would be all time domestic record (38% increase from IW). So that would require same legs as IW.
And the final record that is achievable is $3B WW, which would require slightly better legs than IW. Breakup would be something like:
DOM: 950M (40% increase)
OS-C: 1400M (40.8% increase)
CHN: 650M
1B DOM (47.3% increase from IW) is a bit too far IMO.
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3B in just 8 days. Simply crazy!!
Predicts for the week:
Wed: 450
Thu: 275
Fri: 200
Sat: 150
Sun: 60
4B should happen by next Sunday!
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4 hours ago, raulbalarezo said:
This is going to pass $2B WW by the end of sunday, isn’t it ?
That's locked.
After Sunday, DOM should be around 600M and China around 500M. Rest of OS did 536M this weekend, so should be at 950M+ after Sunday. Add to that an estimated 30M Russian opening and the overall cume approaches 2.1B!!!
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On 4/26/2019 at 12:41 AM, Fake said:
I am expecting Sunday drop to be in 60% range. And since Saturday is looking to match OD with 525-550M, 200-225M is the range for Sunday. Although it is possible it falls just short.
BTW my predicts:
Fri: 425M
Sat: 540M (2B in just 4 days!!)
Sun: 210M
Mon: 90M
Tue: 150M
Wed: 300M
Thu: 150M
Fri: 100M (3B in 10 days!)
Sat: 100M
Sun: 50M
Around 3.5B finish.
Was quite close for the weekend, however, may have underestimated the weekdays. Today looking like 120M or so if it picks up in the evening. And accordingly, Tue and Wed should apprpach 200M and 400M respectively.
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I am expecting Sunday drop to be in 60% range. And since Saturday is looking to match OD with 525-550M, 200-225M is the range for Sunday. Although it is possible it falls just short.
BTW my predicts:
Fri: 425M
Sat: 540M (2B in just 4 days!!)
Sun: 210M
Mon: 90M
Tue: 150M
Wed: 300M
Thu: 150M
Fri: 100M (3B in 10 days!)
Sat: 100M
Sun: 50M
Around 3.5B finish.
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Nearly 550M!! That's crazzy!!
Thu presales looking to finish with 136M. 300M seems almost a certainty, but I will keep my expectations at that level only.
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I don't think evening hours will add 30m+, it will be around 25-27m.
But even by most conservative estimates, 525m should happen easily.
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323.26M @12PM
Though the speed is suggesting 550M+, but I would be happy with 500M. Anything above that is just gravy.
One thing to note here is that it is Wednesday, not Friday, and therefore the acceleration in the evening may not be as large.
So.. going with 500M.
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Presales looking to finish with 262m. A 41% jump from yesterday's figure (185m), which coincidentally is the same jump IW had (129m to 182m), but given the higher base is really impressive.
IW added 200m+ during the day. That should be the bare minimum EG should add. Will be interesting to see how close to 500m it can get. 500m would require 1.91x multiplier, which isn't impossible.
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13 minutes ago, Olive said:
Maoyan is much higher than official BO APP, so it's waiting and adjusting.
What should be the final figure?? Will 3-4AM shows be counted towards midnights or Wednesday??
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Presales for weekend alone has crossed $100M!!
Let's see if it can do $100M OD (including midnights). That would be really amazing. Would require something like 180M+ midnights and 490M+ Wednesday. Tough, but not impossible.
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32 minutes ago, john2000 said:
in usd ? ow ?
In yuan.
I am expecting something like 1800-1850M yuan for OW but could hit 2B if everything goes right:
Mid: 175M
Wed: 475M
Thu: 250M
Fri: 375M
Sat: 500M
Sun: 200M
Total: 1975M
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Thu presales crossed 60M while that of Fri and Sat crossed 80M and 100M respectively. Fri has one extra day of presales and Sat has two, so I am expecting ratio of final presales will be something like 2:3:4 and so will be the ratio of daily grosses.
Expecting daily grosses to be 225-250M, 325-375M and 450-500M respectively.
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8 hours ago, Olive said:
Sunday will be act like Monday.
Since Sarturday is gonna be huge ,so might see some spill-over ,still be prepare for at least 60% drop.
normally MCU movie drop close to 70% on first Monday
Agreed. Sun presales are one fourth of Sat as of now, and final presales will finish with around one-third (as Sun has 1 extra day). Even with a better multiplier, 60% drop is likely.
If Sat does 450m, then Sun will be around 175m and Monday will probably be in 100m vicinity.
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Previously was thinking around 1750 ($260M), but looking at the strength and trends of presales, I am now thinking a bit higher.
Mid: 150M
Wed: 450M
Thu: 250M
Fri: 350M
Sat: 450M
Sun: 200M
Total: 1850M
For the following week I'd expect something like:
Mon: 100M
Tue: 125M
Wed: 250M
Thu: 150M
Fri: 150M
Sat: 100M
Sun: 50M
Total: 900-950M
3B+ finish.
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On 4/12/2019 at 6:24 AM, Fake said:
So 200M before the weekend begins. Will need to show good holds from here in order to reach 400M. 25M DOM + 40M OS is the minimum required to stay on track.
OS fell short by 10%... which makes it almost impossible for it to reach $400M.
Looks like it will finish with 145-150M DOM and 220-230M OS.
Will be at 315M or so after next weekend.
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AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted
It will fall just short, something lik1 1.77-1.775B.
After Sunday, it will be close to 2.2B.