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Took a bit longer than expected, but Disney was never gonna let it fall short after coming so close.... WHAT AN ACHIEVEMENT!! Totally deserved! And the trend of a new worldwide champion every decade continues.

Looks like EG will finish with 2.75B or so. Not bad by any means, but coming so close to the all-time record and missing it.... does cause some disappointment.

Yes... but I expected the fudge to start from this weekend, however Disney "allowed" Endgame to drop over 50% both domestically and overseas. Another 171M is required to reach Avatar. China will add 4M or so before its runs ends, so that leaves 167M. DOM and OS-C weekends were 30M and 40M respectively. Based on the current trends, I'd expect further 70M from DOM and 80M from OS-C. So Disney needs to fudge around 20M or so. Endgame will be at 2643-2645M before weekend begins, 145M away from its target. So the next WW weekend must be over 40M to have a shot at Avatar.

This weekend must be over 80M, if EG has to beat Avatar. Fingers crossed.

Damn! Could have done 7-8M more with extension. And that amount may prove crucial in the fight to beat Avatar. Will finish with 626-627M.

Nice bump with actuals. In the race to beat Avatar, every million counts. Will cross 2.5B marks today. What a run!

Yes, certainly. "Highest grossing movie of all time" honour is not something anyone is going to let go of that easily, especially when it is so close.

Endgame will be at 2540M before the start of next weekend (Weekdays - 19M domestic, 6M China, 29M OS-C). So that leaves around 250M to beat Avatar. China should add another 15M after next Thursday, so WW-C needs to do further 235M. Lets' have a comparison b/w IW and EG from 3rd weekend onwards: IW DOM IW OS-C EG DOM EG OS-C 3rd weekend 62M 81M 63M 84M weekdays 18.3M 28M 19M 29M 4th weekend 29.5M 32M further gross 83M 75M Multi frm 4th wknd 3.82x 3.34x IW had 3.56x multiplier from its WW-C weekend. EG probably won't get it that high, but 3.2x seems probable. Which means that if it can get 75M WW-C next weekend, it will gross further 165M. Current projections: EG DOM EG OS-C China Worldwide Gross b/f 4th wknd 742M 1181.5M 616.5M 2540M 4th weekend 33M (-47.5%) 42M (-50%) 7M (-60%) 82M further gross 80M (3.4X) 86M (3.05X) 7M* 173M Multi frm 4th wknd 855M 1310M 630M 2795M *without extension. If China gets extension, it will add further ~5M. Thus, it is going to be very very close, but I am still favoring EG to surpass Avatar.

Damn! Now domestic looking to finish with 850-855M. China will wrap up with 630M or so. So OS-C needs to do 1310M to beat Avatar. For that, OS-C Friday needs to be over 20M.

Yeah. For DOM, I'd say 17-18M. Harsh Thu drop will be somewhat corrected by large Friday jump.

In 52-53M range. This Friday, should do 20M+. China is doing 4M+. Overall should be over 24M.

This Friday number is the key. Whatever amount it grosses on Friday, it will do 12x of that during the rest of the run. For example, if it does 40M today, it will gross 480M or so including Friday (4x IM for 160M Fri-Sun and 3x multiplier from Fri-Sun). EG is 2328.2M as of Thursday. Another 480M will take its gross past 2.8B. However, if it comes 38M or lower, I would concede that it might miss Avatar.

Lol @ the overreactions on this forum. One good number and $3B talks start and onr not-so-good number and it's gonaa miss Avatar! The question isn't whether it is gonna surpass Avatar, but when. Looking at the current trend, the prediction of overtaking Avatar by Memorial weekend is far too optimistic, and the earliest it could get there seems to be 1st weekend of June. It may take another couple of weeks to get there if drops are not as good as hoped, but it will get there for sure.

Yeah... edited original post... all OS figures were inadvertently typed 200m lower, WW figures were correct though. And I have projected only till 2nd June. Its runs will continue thereafter.

It will beat Avatar for sure, though it may take some time. Projected grosses for EG 12/5 - 735 + 1770 = 2505 19/5 - 795 + 1860 = 2655 26/5 - 830 + 1910 = 2740 2/6 - 855 + 1935 = 2790 Should add another 60M+ from here.

Seems like this week Mon-Thu will do around 100M, and Fri-Sun will do another 100M (-60%) Mon: 34M Tue: 24M Wed: 21M Thu: 19M (CUME: 1.67B) Fri: 25M Sat+Sun: 75M (CUME: 1.77B) DOM is looking to reach 730-735M by Sunday, so the tally should just about cross 2.5B by next Sunday.

If this is your guesstimate, you need to specify it as such. Otherwise it gives false impression that it is official number and hence creates confusion. BTW, 'officially', weekend actuals will be reported today. Monday numbers will be reported tomorrow.

OS - CH + RUS Infinity War: WKND1: 382.8M WKND2: 145.6M / 696.4M cume TOTAL: 960M Endgame: WKND1: 536M WKND2: 185M / 960.6M OW for EG was around 40% higher compared to IW, but 2nd weekend is only 27% higher. Alternatively, weekend drop was 65.5% for EG as compared to 62% for IW. IW got a 2.81x multiplier from its 2nd weekend. Given that EG seems more frontloaded and also that EG faces major competition in its 3rd week as compared to 4th week for IW, I would say a multiplier of 2.6-2.7x from 2nd weekend is more likely. This translates into a further gross of 300-310M taking the total to 1.26-1.27B. As China and Russia will finish with 625M and 45M respectively, the OS final total seems to be headed for 1.93-1.94B. (All this is with the current estimates; if the actuals go up by 3-4m, then the final projected totals will also go up by 10m.) Avatar is going down WW, but I'm afraid 3B is no longer possible.

Like I mentioned, IW OS-C pulled another 280M after 2nd weekend. And EG 2nd weekend was around 35% higher than IW. I would wager another 350M or so for 1.35B OS-C finish.

China will do 625M. It will be close to 610M after next Sunday itself.

Aah. I see. For getting to Avatar OS, OS-Ch needs to get 1.4B minimum (as China will wrap with 625M or so).... After this weekend OS-C will be at 1B with a 200M Fri-Sun, so the requirement would be 3x multiplier. For comparison, IW OS-C did a further 280M after 148M Fri-Sun (2.89x).

TFA DOM looks pretty difficult as of now. EG Fri was 29.2% higher than IW, and if it can maintain the same lead throughout the rest if its run (which I doubt), it will finish with 914M. 900M is a more realistic target. Avatar WW is going down for sure, unless it crashes spectacularly. Next weekend drop is the key.

EG should be exactly at 2.2B acter the weekend. DOM should be 620M while OS should be 1.58B (Another 30M from China and 150M from the rest of the markets).

Thinking 150-155M DOM weekend, 68-70M china and 220-230M OS-CH 3-Day. Cumes will be 625M DOM + 580M CH + 1125M OS-CH = 2.23B

Projecting further run: WKND/WEEK - DOM - CHN - OS-C = WW Weekend 1: 357 - 330.5 - 536 - 1223.5 Weekday 1: 115 - 190 - 205 Weekend 2: 153 - 80 - 235 = 468 (WW Cume: 625+600+975 = 2200) Weekday 2: 40 - 25 - 85 Weekend 3: 70 - 20 - 90 = 180 (WW Cume: 735+645+1150 = 2530) Weekday 3: 20 - 10 - 30 Weekend 4: 40 - 10 - 45 = 95 (WW Cume: 795+665+1225 = 2685) Rest of run: 105 - 10 - 100 = 215 WW Final: 900+675+1325 = 2900