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Fake

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Fake last won the day on December 17 2011

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  1. Looks like EG will finish with 2.75B or so. Not bad by any means, but coming so close to the all-time record and missing it.... does cause some disappointment.
  2. Yes... but I expected the fudge to start from this weekend, however Disney "allowed" Endgame to drop over 50% both domestically and overseas. Another 171M is required to reach Avatar. China will add 4M or so before its runs ends, so that leaves 167M. DOM and OS-C weekends were 30M and 40M respectively. Based on the current trends, I'd expect further 70M from DOM and 80M from OS-C. So Disney needs to fudge around 20M or so. Endgame will be at 2643-2645M before weekend begins, 145M away from its target. So the next WW weekend must be over 40M to have a shot at Avatar.
  3. This weekend must be over 80M, if EG has to beat Avatar. Fingers crossed.
  4. Damn! Could have done 7-8M more with extension. And that amount may prove crucial in the fight to beat Avatar. Will finish with 626-627M.
  5. Nice bump with actuals. In the race to beat Avatar, every million counts. Will cross 2.5B marks today. What a run!
  6. Yes, certainly. "Highest grossing movie of all time" honour is not something anyone is going to let go of that easily, especially when it is so close.
  7. Endgame will be at 2540M before the start of next weekend (Weekdays - 19M domestic, 6M China, 29M OS-C). So that leaves around 250M to beat Avatar. China should add another 15M after next Thursday, so WW-C needs to do further 235M. Lets' have a comparison b/w IW and EG from 3rd weekend onwards: IW DOM IW OS-C EG DOM EG OS-C 3rd weekend 62M 81M 63M 84M weekdays 18.3M 28M 19M 29M 4th weekend 29.5M 32M further gross 83M 75M Multi frm 4th wknd 3.82x 3.34x IW had 3.56x multiplier from its WW-C weekend. EG probably won't get it that high, but 3.2x seems probable. Which means that if it can get 75M WW-C next weekend, it will gross further 165M. Current projections: EG DOM EG OS-C China Worldwide Gross b/f 4th wknd 742M 1181.5M 616.5M 2540M 4th weekend 33M (-47.5%) 42M (-50%) 7M (-60%) 82M further gross 80M (3.4X) 86M (3.05X) 7M* 173M Multi frm 4th wknd 855M 1310M 630M 2795M *without extension. If China gets extension, it will add further ~5M. Thus, it is going to be very very close, but I am still favoring EG to surpass Avatar.
  8. Damn! Now domestic looking to finish with 850-855M. China will wrap up with 630M or so. So OS-C needs to do 1310M to beat Avatar. For that, OS-C Friday needs to be over 20M.
  9. Yeah. For DOM, I'd say 17-18M. Harsh Thu drop will be somewhat corrected by large Friday jump.
  10. In 52-53M range. This Friday, should do 20M+. China is doing 4M+. Overall should be over 24M.
  11. This Friday number is the key. Whatever amount it grosses on Friday, it will do 12x of that during the rest of the run. For example, if it does 40M today, it will gross 480M or so including Friday (4x IM for 160M Fri-Sun and 3x multiplier from Fri-Sun). EG is 2328.2M as of Thursday. Another 480M will take its gross past 2.8B. However, if it comes 38M or lower, I would concede that it might miss Avatar.
  12. Lol @ the overreactions on this forum. One good number and $3B talks start and onr not-so-good number and it's gonaa miss Avatar! The question isn't whether it is gonna surpass Avatar, but when. Looking at the current trend, the prediction of overtaking Avatar by Memorial weekend is far too optimistic, and the earliest it could get there seems to be 1st weekend of June. It may take another couple of weeks to get there if drops are not as good as hoped, but it will get there for sure.
  13. Yeah... edited original post... all OS figures were inadvertently typed 200m lower, WW figures were correct though. And I have projected only till 2nd June. Its runs will continue thereafter.
  14. It will beat Avatar for sure, though it may take some time. Projected grosses for EG 12/5 - 735 + 1770 = 2505 19/5 - 795 + 1860 = 2655 26/5 - 830 + 1910 = 2740 2/6 - 855 + 1935 = 2790 Should add another 60M+ from here.
  15. Seems like this week Mon-Thu will do around 100M, and Fri-Sun will do another 100M (-60%) Mon: 34M Tue: 24M Wed: 21M Thu: 19M (CUME: 1.67B) Fri: 25M Sat+Sun: 75M (CUME: 1.77B) DOM is looking to reach 730-735M by Sunday, so the tally should just about cross 2.5B by next Sunday.
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