Corpse
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(C) 2016「君の名は。」製作委員会Weekend Forecast (09/03-04)
01 (01) ¥819,000,000 ($8.0 million), -12%, ¥3,400,000,000 ($33.4 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥324,000,000 ($3.1 million), -10%, ¥5,950,000,000 ($58.0 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK6
03 (03) ¥176,000,000 ($1.7 million), -41%, ¥3,600,000,000 ($35.4 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK4
04 (04) ¥144,000,000 ($1.4 million), -33%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.8 million), Black Widow Business (Toho) WK2
05 (---) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million), Now You See Me 2 (Kadokawa) NEW
06 (05) ¥103,000,000 ($1.0 million), -34%, ¥1,040,000,000 ($10.1 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) WK3
07 (06) ¥91,000,000 ($880,000), -38%, ¥850,000,000 ($8.3 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) WK3
08 (09) ¥82,000,000 ($790,000), -32%, ¥4,950,000,000 ($48.3 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK7
09 (08) ¥79,000,000 ($765,000), -40%, ¥1,975,000,000 ($19.4 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK4
10 (07) ¥74,000,000 ($720,000), -44%, ¥6,600,000,000 ($63.9 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK8>Director Makoto Shinkai's Your Name. continued its dominance at the box office throughout the week, earning more over its first set of weekdays than its actual opening weekend. Its Saturday pre-sales and morning/afternoon ticket sales are huge once again, and it's poised to deliver a massive second weekend; easily the biggest of the year and one of the biggest second weekends of all-time. . And, its two-week total will also be among the highest of all-time, too.
The film's soundtrack debut at #1 on the charts (74,000 first week), as did the paperback version of the film... all of this is a strong indication that the film is becoming, or has already become, a phenomenon in Japan. I highly doubt anything in September will dethrone it, and fully expect it to remain at #1 for the entire month and well into October as well, so we could be looking at 8 weeks, or more, at #1. I've been wanting to say this since last Saturday, but I really think we have a ¥10 billion+ ($100 million) contender here.
>Shin-Godzilla is going to have another incredible hold, and I might be projecting too harsh of a drop despite going with a 10% drop. This beast remains unfazed by anything. Its biggest drop-to-date has only been 21%, for reference. At this point, it's clear now that it's going to surpass Finding Dory (and soon) and end up comfortably above ¥7 billion ($70 billion), which will give it a multiplier of over 11, possibly even 12. It might even make a run at ¥8 billion ($80 million); that'd be a multiplier of nearly 13.
>Now You See Me 2 will be the top debut this weekend, but due to the strength of the August holdovers, the best it'll manage is simply cracking the Top 5.
>The remaining holdovers will likely experience some sizable drops now that summer is over and school is back in session, especially those that had been skewing younger (such as The Secret Life of Pets). The more adult-driven films (such as Black Widow Business) will survive the change much better.
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Upcoming Release Schedule (Major and Notable Releases Only)
Release Date - [Current Theater Count] - Film Title (Distributor)Theater Count Key:
N/A (No Listed Locations)
100 > Limited Release
100 < Wide Release
200 < Moderate Release
300 < Significant Release
350 < Optimal Release (rare)September
09/01, [244] - Now You See Me 2 (Kadokawa)
09/03, [118] - Dias Police: Dirty Yellow Boys (Toei)
09/09, [303] - Gods of Egypt (Gaga)
09/10, [294] - Your Lie in April (Toho)
09/10, [275] - Samurai Hustle Returns! (Shochiku)
09/10, [154] - Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.)
09/17, [324] - Anger (Toho)
09/17, [125] - The Red Turtle (Toho)
09/17, [121] - A Silent Voice (Shochiku)
09/17, [N/A] - The BFG (Disney)
09/19 - Respect for the Elderly Day (National Holiday)
09/22 - Autumn Equinox Day (National Holiday)
09/22, [314] - Sanada Ten Braves (Shochiku/Nikkatsu)
09/22, [181] - Ushijima the Loan Shark - Part 3 (SPD)
09/22, [x81] - The Beatles: Eight Days a Week (Kadokawa)
09/24, [164] - Sully (Warner Bros.)
09/24, [x84] - Mechanic: Resurrection (Showgate)October
10/01, [300] - The Angry Birds Movie (Sony)
10/01, [247] - Scoop! (Toho)
10/01, [x87] - Cutie Honey: Tears (Toei)
10/07, [323] - Jason Bourne (Toho-Towa)
10/08, [313] - High & Low: The Red Rain (Shochiku)
10/08, [278] - Good Morning Show (Toho)
10/08, [225] - Night's Tightrope (Toei)
10/10 - Health-Sports Day (National Holiday)
10/14, [151] - Gantz:O (Toho Video Division)
10/14, [x86] - The Long Excuse (Asmik Ace)
10/15, [N/A] - Somebody (Toho)
10/21, [N/A] - Star Trek Beyond (Toho-Towa)
10/22, [181] - Ushijima the Loan Shark - The Final (SPD)
10/22, [x80] - Super Kabuki Theater: One Piece (Shochiku)
10/22, [N/A] - Man of the Gold Medal (Showgate)
10/22, [N/A] - Birthday Card (Toei)
10/28, [N/A] - Inferno (Sony)
10/29, [329] - Death Note: Light Up the New World (Warner Bros.)
10/29, [x89] - Her Love Boils Bathwater (Clockworks)
10/29, [N/A] - Precure All Stars: Cure Miracle and Mofurun's Magic Lesson! (Toei)*Listed Theater Counts may be subject to change but are typically final.
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Yep, Summer Vacation is over and School is back in session. Shin Godzilla is firmly appealing to an adult audience, so it's remained unfazed by the time-of-year change and will continue to have strong weekdays.
Your Name. is definitely a beast; it's been making a killing since Day 1. I figured it'd have a "slower" Thursday since Summer Vacation is over but that certainly wasn't the case, and is another strong indicator that it's appealing to a very broad audience. It's also receiving a very, very rare "expansion" (picking up the biggest screens at some locations that it wasn't given last weekend) this weekend.
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21 hours ago, chrisman0606 said:
@Corpse I discovered on the IMDB release info for movies going to be release in Japan, I found out that Spider-Man Homecoming is going to be released on the August 11 holiday, and as you mentioned he is a popular American superhero in Japan. I known it is years away, but do you think it will gross okay next year in Japan?
Spider-Man is the only superhero whom's films will always do well in Japan. He's the most well-known superhero in the market, by a huge margin, who also has domestic roots in the market with a live-action tv show dating back to the 1970s.
I don't think any future release will manage to match the success of the original Spider-Man trilogy, but solid/strong box office returns should always be guaranteed for the character. The Andrew Garfield films both exceeded 3 billion ($39 and 31 million, respectively), and they did so despite attempting to follow up on the blockbuster original trilogy, and by suffering from a lukewarm reception upon release. As long as Spider-Man: Homecoming is good, I'd say 3 billion ($30 million) is the floor, and I wouldn't be surprised by a 4/5 billion ($40/50 million) result.
Note: USD totals are based on today's exchange rate.
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Yes, definitely. There was a report back in July, I believe, that had the year up a comfortably margin over 2015. I was very busy in July and never got around to posting it, but I'll try to look it up again. And the second half of the year has been performing very well, too.
2016 will make for the fourth-consecutive year that yearly admissions are up.
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About 4.8 million. To reach 5 million admissions, it'd need to earn 7.2/7.3 billion ($71/72 million).
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29 minutes ago, Cookson said:
Is it crazy to think Shin-Godzilla could reach 70m?
Nope, it's more likely than not now. Its chances at 7 billion (about $70 million) are pretty good.
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I actually forgot one, and it has a pretty good chance: Resident Evil: The Final Chapter.
Japan will be the first, and only, country getting it in 2016. It opens on December 23rd, and the last two films each earned over 4 billion. I figure it's still a popular series, and the "final" angle will certainly help sell it. It's no lock at earning over 5 billion, but it's certainly possible.
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Hmm... if we're talking through November (box office year), I'd say these films have a chance:
>Your Lie in April (September 10th) - A shojo-manga live-action adaptation from a respected director and popular cast. The most successful Shojo adaptations usually top out around 3 billion, but there have been a couple reach 4 billion. However, only one has ever earned over 5 billion (Boys Over Flowers). I highly doubt this one reaches 5 billion, but online signals appear strong so don't totally rule it out.
>Death Note: Light Up the New World (October 29th) - I'd give this one a 50/50 chance; the highest among the Fall candidates. The recent well-received TV drama gave the franchise some renewed interest, and one film in the series grossed over 5 billion in the past. I think as long as reviews are good, it could get there.
>Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (November 23rd) - This one boils down to the Harry Potter faithful. There's a lot of examples of spin-offs, or loose pre-quels/sequls disappointing in Japan, so I'm weary of its chances. But as I mentioned, if the Harry Potter fans come out, it has a decent chance at 5 billion.
I think that's it, but if we look at December:
>Takashi Yamazaki's new film, A Man Called Pirate, opens on December 10th. The film is a World War II story about a man who lost everything in the war, who would later find success in the oil industry. The film reunites him with actor Junichi Okada, and together they delivered the 2013 blockbuster hit The Eternal Zero, which grossed 8.74 billion. I doubt it's as successful as their previous effort, but if reviews are strong, I wouldn't rule out potential at 5 billion.
>Rogue One opens on December 16th and has a fair shot, I suppose. I have some doubts since it's not a proper Star Wars film, and has no recognizable names attached to it, but the Star Wars brand is strong enough that 5 billion can be attained.
>There's also Yo-Kai Watch 3, the first live-action/animated hybrid film in the series, opening on December 17th. The Yo-Kai Watch series has definitely peaked, but the live-action angle might be enough to keep the franchise above the 5 billion milestone.
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2016 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor)¥11.58 billion ($96.0 million) / 7.45 million [F] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) #19 All-Time
¥10 billion ↨
¥7.61 billion ($70.5 million) / 5.90 million [F] - Zootopia (Disney) #67 All-Time
¥6.43 billion ($62.3 million) / 5.27 million [44] - Finding Dory (Disney) #93 All-Time
¥6.31 billion ($57.9 million) / 4.93 million [F] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) #94 All-Time
¥5.53 billion ($46.5 million) / 5.01 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho)
¥5.30 billion ($51.7 million) / 3.63 million [31] - Shin Godzilla (Toho)
¥5 billion ↨
¥4.78 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.58 million [37] - One Piece Film Gold (Toei)
¥4.61 billion ($39.6 million) / 3.60 million [F] - Nobunaga Concerto (Toho)
¥4.12 billion ($36.7 million) / 3.63 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho)
¥3.51 billion ($31.4 million) / 3.11 million [F] - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho)
¥3.51 billion ($30.9 million) / 2.42 million [F] - The Martian (Fox)
¥3.22 billion ($26.8 million) / 2.72 million [E] - Orange (Toho)
¥3.14 billion ($31.0 million) / 2.57 million [18] - The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2.85 billion ($23.8 million) / 2.18 million [E] - Spectre (Sony)
¥2.63 billion ($25.3 million) / 1.77 million [E] - Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney)
¥2.59 billion ($23.8 million) / 1.71 million [E] - Captain America: Civil War (Disney)
¥2.54 billion ($24.3 million) / 1.74 million [E] - Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox)
¥2.16 billion ($20.6 million) / 1.72 million [E] - Evergreen Love (Shochiku)
¥2.13 billion ($19.7 million) / 1.82 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho)
¥2.03 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.40 million [E] - Deadpool (Fox
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.95 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.78 million [44] - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho)
¥1.93 billion ($17.9 million) / 1.56 million [F] - 64: Part 1 (Toho)
¥1.86 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.21 million [F] - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.)
¥1.80 billion ($15.1 million) / 1.52 million [E] - Living With My Mother (Shochiku)
¥1.77 billion ($17.6 million) / 1.29 million [18] - The Jungle Book (Disney)
¥1.69 billion ($15.9 million) / 1.40 million [E] - 64: Part 2 (Toho)
¥1.69 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.35 million [E] - The Good Dinosaur (Disney)
¥1.67 billion ($16.0 million) / 1.27 million [44] - High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku)
¥1.62 billion ($14.8 million) / 1.20 million [F] - I Am a Hero (Toho)
¥1.52 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.21 million [E] - Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei)
¥1.50 billion ($13.8 million) / 1.26 million [E] - Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho)
¥1.45 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.10 million [E] - Too Young to Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace)
¥1.42 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.14 million [E] - The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.)
¥1.27 billion ($12.6 million) / 0.96 million [03] - Your Name. (Toho)
¥1.25 billion ($11.2 million) / 1.11 million [E] - What a Wonderful Family (Shochiku)
¥1.23 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku)
¥1.22 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.02 million [23] - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho)
¥1.21 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.99 million [E] - Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.)
¥1.19 billion ($11.0 million) / 1.00 million [E] - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho)
¥1.19 billion ($10.8 million) / 0.92 million [E] - If Cats Disappeared From the World (Toho)
¥1.18 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Summit of the Gods (Toho)
¥1.16 billion ($10.3 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Black Devil and the White Prince (Showgate)
¥1.15 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.97 million [E] - Persona Non Grata (Toho)
¥1 billion ↑Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)-
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2016 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)¥1.245 billion ($10.3 million) / 800,258 [958] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney)
¥1.209 billion ($11.1 million) / 933,781 [348] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho)
¥1.155 billion ($10.9 million) / 820,830 [739] - One Piece Film Gold (Toei)
¥1.058 billion ($8.7 million) / 974,557 [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho)
¥1 billion ↨
¥930.0 million ($9.2 million) / 688,079 [301] - Your Name. (Toho)
¥745.5 million ($7.1 million) / 553,066 [511] - Finding Dory (Disney)
¥639.1 million ($5.7 million) / 544,641 [319] - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho)
¥637.0 million ($5.6 million) / 544,816 [374] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho)
¥624.6 million ($6.1 million) / 412,302 [441] - Shin Godzilla (Toho)
¥615.9 million ($5.2 million) / 465,956 [325] - Nobunaga Concerto (Toho)
¥570.2 million ($5.6 million) / 381,521 [963] - Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox)
¥500 million ↨
¥496.0 million ($4.2 million) / 330,223 [841] - The Martian (Fox)
¥467.4 million ($4.6 million) / 370,046 [363] - The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa)
¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) / 322,943 [625] - Captain America: Civil War (Disney)
¥445.8 million ($4.0 million) / 329,513 [471] - Zootopia (Disney)
¥427.3 million ($4.1 million) / 323,030 [312] - High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku)
¥425.4 million ($4.2 million) / 273,209 [979] - Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney)
¥400.5 million ($3.7 million) / 337,108 [334] - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho)
¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) / 248,473 [724] - Deadpool (Fox)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) / 231,377 [717] - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.)
¥362.2 million ($3.0 million) / 262,663 [591] - Spectre (Sony)
¥354.1 million ($3.3 million) / 282,693 [321] - 64: Part 2 (Toho)
¥342.0 million ($3.1 million) / 264,270 [307] - Evergreen Love (Shochiku)
¥323.9 million ($3.1 million) / 289,971 [366] - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho)
¥311.8 million ($2.6 million) / 261,179 [303] - Orange (Toho)
¥302.1 million ($3.0 million) / 209,916 [676] - The Jungle Book (Disney)
¥300 million ↨
¥291.2 million ($2.4 million) / 217,273 [252] - Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei)
¥258.1 million ($2.5 million) / 188,028 [288] - Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace)
¥257.2 million ($2.4 million) / 203,703 [319] - 64: Part 1 (Toho)
¥244.4 million ($2.1 million) / 197,460 [336] - Living With My Mother (Shochiku)
¥237.1 million ($2.3 million) / 160,260 [701] - Ghostbusters (Sony)
¥237.1 million ($2.1 million) / 191,696 [380] - The Good Dinosaur (Disney)
¥233.6 million ($2.1 million) / 192,506 [285] - Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.)
¥225.7 million ($2.0 million) / 159,964 [284] - I Am a Hero (Toho)
¥222.8 million ($1.8 million) / 181,551 [292] - Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei)
¥221.7 million ($2.0 million) / 169,500 [329] - The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.)
¥216.3 million ($2.0 million) / 193,226 [294] - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho)
¥211.0 million ($2.1 million) / 174,438 [301] - Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei)
¥209.5 million ($1.8 million) / 165,220 [322] - The Summit of the Gods (Toho)
¥200 million ↨
¥198.5 million ($1.9 million) / 140,581 [352] - Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa)
¥196.6 million ($1.9 million) / 163,736 [281] - Yell to the Blue Sky (Toho)
¥194.9 million ($1.8 million) / 159,960 [308] - The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku)
¥190.7 million ($1.7 million) / 157,680 [160] - The Black Devil and the White Prince (Showgate)
¥187.3 million ($1.8 million) / 147,179 [346] - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho)
¥184.7 million ($1.7 million) / 141,691 [290] - If Cats Disappeared From the World (Toho)
¥179.5 million ($1.6 million) / 132,848 [366] - The Revenant (Fox)
¥179.0 million ($1.6 million) / 146,299 [298] - Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho)
¥177.1 million ($1.5 million) / 131,973 [108] - Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division)
¥173.0 million ($1.5 million) / 151,422 [320] - What a Wonderful Family (Shochiku)
¥160.7 million ($1.6 million) / 123,734 [496] - The Legend of Tarzan (Warner Bros.)
¥155.3 million ($1.4 million) / 123,702 [307] - Kamen Rider 1 (Toei)
¥153.9 million ($1.3 million) / 114,709 [653] - The Peanuts Movie (Fox)
¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) / 108,907 [549] - X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox)
¥150.6 million ($1.4 million) / 128,730 [327] - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.)
¥145.4 million ($1.2 million) / 118,453 [329] - Persona Non Grata (Toho)
¥144.1 million ($1.3 million) / 107,058 [538] - Point Break (Warner Bros.)
¥141.9 million ($1.2 million) / 112,937 [348] - Bridge of Spies (Fox)
¥133.5 million ($1.2 million) / 116,015 [213] - Precure All Stars: Sung by Everyone♪ Miracle Magic! (Toei)
¥133.0 million ($1.2 million) / 92,396 [137] - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimenstions (Toei)
¥131.0 million ($1.3 million) / 96,000 [304] - Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku)
¥129.4 million ($1.1 million) / 99,913 [315] - Paddington (Kino Films)
¥127.2 million ($1.2 million) / 96,394 [256] - Creepy (Shochiku)
¥123.2 million ($1.2 million) / 92,757 [141] - Road to High & Low (Shochiku)
¥115.8 million ($1.0 million) / 84,008 [214] - The Big Short (Toho-Towa)
¥115.6 million ($1.0 million) / 87,958 [587] - The Huntsman: Winter's War (Toho-Towa)
¥113.5 million ($1.0 million) / 86,195 [265] - Black Mass (Warner Bros.)
¥110.6 million ($0.9 million) / 82,182 [221] - The Inerasable (Shochiku)
¥108.8 million ($1.0 million) / 89,510 [244] - After the Storm (Gaga)
¥106.5 million ($0.9 million) / 105,911 [317] - Shuriken Ninninger vs. Ressha ToQger: Ninja in Wonderland (Toei)
¥105.3 million ($0.9 million) / 88,295 [309] - Kainan 1890 (Toei)
¥103.7 million ($0.9 million) / 83,695 [316] - Les Saisons (Gaga)
¥102.1 million ($0.9 million) / 77,769 [96] - Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace)
¥101.1 million ($0.9 million) / 76,114 [150] - Born in the EXILE (Toho Video Division)
¥100.5 million ($0.9 million) / 81,868 [291] - Life's Promise (Toho)
¥100.2 million ($0.9 million) / 75,976 [308] - The Kodai Family (Toho)
¥100 million ↑Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)-
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(C) 2016「君の名は。」製作委員会Weekend Actuals (08/27-28)
01 (---) ¥930,058,800 ($9.2 million), 0, ¥1,277,958,800 ($12.6 million), Your Name. (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥360,182,100 ($3.6 million), -06%, ¥5,302,014,700 ($51.7 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK5
03 (02) ¥299,150,700 ($2.9 million), -18%, ¥3,145,938,300 ($31.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK3
04 (---) ¥214,965,500 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥214,965,500 ($2.1 million), Black Widow Business (Toho) NEW
05 (03) ¥155,497,800 ($1.5 million), -35%, ¥815,666,500 ($8.0 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) WK2
06 (05) ¥147,964,200 ($1.4 million), -25%, ¥607,717,600 ($6.0 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) WK2
07 (06) ¥132,717,000 ($1.3 million), -31%, ¥6,428,128,000 ($62.3 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK7
08 (04) ¥131,005,400 ($1.3 million), -37%, ¥1,775,075,800 ($17.6 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK3
09 (07) ¥120,079,300 ($1.2 million), -23%, ¥4,778,855,700 ($46.0 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK6
10 (---) ¥119,989,500 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥162,241,700 ($1.6 million), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (Paramount) NEW>Your Name. experiences a blockbuster opening weekend, nearly an uber-blockbuster start, eclipsing even the highest of expectations prior to the weekend, delivering what I consider possibly the most impressive opening weekend of all-time in the market. There was zero precedent for this film to debut with such impressive results.
Acclaimed director Makoto Shinkai's first wide release sold a staggering 688,079 admissions over the weekend frame on 301 screens. And since opening on Friday, it sold an even more impressive 959,834 admissions after three days in release. Shinkai is viewed as a candidate to succeed Hayao Miyazaki's in Japan as the country's top film director, and he delivered in every way imaginable with his first wide release this weekend. He is no stranger to critically-acclaimed films; he's been releasing acclaimed limited releases since 2004. But well-received, award-winning films are only half of the battle to achieving the title critics and audiences are bestowing upon him. And through the immense reputation he's built with his limited releases, he hit it out of the park at the box office this weekend with his first wide release this weekend.
The critically-acclaimed film shattered the August opening weekend record, and eclipsed the opening record for an original animated title from a non-established studio. And, it also came in above almost every Studio Ghibli film and Disney/Pixar film. In terms of admissions, it only trailed Miyazaki's last four films and Finding Nemo. And it achieved this feat on far fewer screens, too, on just 301 versus the typical 400/500+ that established studio releases receive.
Toho is projecting the film will reach a total of ¥6 billion ($60 million), a projection that's already almost 100% certain. However, when you factor in that it sold through nearly 50% of its weekend admissions (helping to boost the holdovers in the process via sellouts), and just how well-received it's been so far, I highly doubt it finishes below ¥7 billion ($70 million). And if audiences truly recognize Shinkai as Miyazaki's true successor, and this weekend is a strong indication that they have, then we could be looking at a potential run of much more than ¥7 billion ($70 million).
In holdover news...
>Shin-Godzilla experiences another incredible hold, and earned its best hold-to-date - barely dropping at all compared to last weekend. It has easily exceeded the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone after just five weeks in release, and is also going to cruise right past the ¥6 billion ($60 million) mark as well - and when it does, it'll likely have sold enough admissions to have become the most-attended Godzilla film since 1966! There seems to be no slowing down for this WOM monster, so don't be surprised if it's still in the top 10 when we head into October.
>Black Widow Business managed a solid fourth place debut, selling 182,555 admissions across 318 screens over the weekend. Prior to going into the weekend, pre-sales were suggesting it may only sell just over 100,000 admissions, and it outperformed that figure decidedly well.
>Finding Dory continues to its struggle to post great/excellent holds, and not simply "good" holds. It's fallen further behind Monsters University after seven weeks in release, and is now trailing it by 17%. There's really no chance it'll make a recovery at this stage of its release, so it's going to finish just over the ¥7 billion ($70 million) milestone. That's an impressive result, sure, but fairly disappointing for Pixar and it's down a hefty 35% compared to its predecessor.
>One Piece Film Gold enjoys a healthy weekend hold in its sixth weekend, and is just shy of outgrossing 2009's One Piece Film Strong World (¥4.8 billion). It likely surpassed it on Monday, and should either be very, very close to the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone after next weekend, or just over it. It's going to end up down around 25% compared to its predecessor, 2012's One Piece Film Z, though.
>Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is a bomb, faily to even reach 100,000 admissions over the weekend frame. Although, it did crawl past that number since opening on Friday, selling 107,483 admissions after three days in relase on 542 screens. It's down a significant 53% compared to its predecessor.
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2 minutes ago, cannastop said:
Why would you think that Your Name could have a ticket price under ¥1,300? Didn't even Finding Dory do better than that?
Dory had premium format screenings (such as 3D). Your Name. is just in 2D.
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One of the biggest takeaways for me was its avg. ticket price - 1,351. That number suggests it's appealing to a very diverse crowd, which is key for it to sustain its momentum going forward. If it had been under 1,300, we'd know that teens/young adults were the driving force behind its success, and that legs would probably only be average/slighly above average with school starting back this week. But since it's comfortably above 1,300, that means it's attracting a lot of adults as well.
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It was corrected, @Cookson
I believe Your Name. may have just delivered the most impressive opening weekend ever. It's very hard to find a film that's comparable to it. It's bigger than any Ghibli film, except for Miyazaki's last four films, and every Pixar film as well (though second to Nemo in admissions).
However, it earned its huge opening on fewer screens (301 versus the typical 400+) and came from a studio and director that has never had a box office success, so to speak, since they were always limited releases. Makato Shinkai is a well-known name, no doubt, and people have been looking to him to succeed Miyazaki, but he went into the weekend with no past box office hits. And let's not forget about the release date; late-August is generally not a strong period, while basically every other major opener had the luxury of a prime Spring/Summer/Winter slot.
I'll post the Weekend Actuals shortly.
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5 minutes ago, CelestialFairyIX said:
Yes!!! Possible ¥10 billion player? Would be the first animated film since Frozen two years ago I believe and the only animated film to pass that mark that is not associated with Disney/Pixar/Ghibli. I truly hope so since it would truly mark the beginning of a new golden age for director Shinkai.
I've been wanting to say ¥10 billion ($100 million) contender all day, but I'm going to hold off. An ~11.5 multiplier, while not impossible, will be very, very difficult to achieve with a late-August release. Once the third weekend of September finishes (holiday weekend), the box office is usually in a dead period until December. Now, that doesn't mean a film can't still pull in stellar numbers in the Fall, but it is the weakest time of the year.
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Here's a record that slipped my mind over the weekend:
Biggest August Opening Weekends (1998-)
01. ¥875.0 million ($8.7 million) - Your Name. (2016) *Est.
02. ¥845.1 million ($6.8 million) - Jurassic World (2015)
03. ¥805.0 million ($6.7 million) - Jurassic Park III (2001)
04. ¥767.2 million ($7.5 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
05. ¥766.3 million ($7.1 million) - The Mummy 3: The Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (2008)
06. ¥748.0 million ($6.2 million) - Planet of the Apes (2001)
07. ¥644.5 million ($5.7 million) - The Suspect: Muroi Shinji (2005)
08. ¥631.4 million ($5.3 million) - Transformers (2007)
09. ¥625.6 million ($5.8 million) - 20th Century Boys (2008)
10. ¥603.5 million ($4.9 million) - Attack on Titan - Part 1 (2015)
11. ¥601.3 million ($5.1 million) - Ocean's Thirteen (2007)
12. ¥592.2 million ($5.8 million) - Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno (2014)
13. ¥573.5 million ($4.6 million) - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (2015)
14. ¥546.0 million ($4.4 million) - Minions (2015)
15. ¥545.9 million ($4.5 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)
16. ¥500.9 million ($6.4 million) - The Avengers (2012)
17. ¥485.3 million ($4.7 million) - Transformers: Age of Extinction (2014)
18. ¥477.5 million ($5.0 million) - Kamen Rider Decade: All Riders vs. Dai-Shocker (2009)
19. ¥467.4 million ($4.6 million) - The Secret Life of Pets (2016)
20. ¥409.6 million ($3.3 million) - Boruto: Naruto the Movie (2015)It could end up barely below Jurassic World with actuals, but it's unlikely.
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It'll probably earn around 1 billion (or ~$10 million). And that's perfectly fine; most superhero movies don't reach that mark. It's always important to remember that superhero/comic book films, Marvel/DC, just aren't popular in Japan. Unless it involves Spider-Man, and to a much lesser degree, Iron Man (he's gained some popularity).
The Japanese don't really factor in any Japanese characters as a means of appeal. The Wolverine was a dud, for example, and it took place in Japan with several Japanese actors.
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2 hours ago, James said:
@Corpse any chance for Suicide Squad to break out (20m+) in Japan? The crazy style at least seems to be in line with the taste of Japanese audiences.
I doubt it. I don't think the characters are really known, and besides Will Smith, the film has no recognizable names for Japanese audiences. Also, the poor reviews will likely impact it as well.
26 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:So, what happened to X-Men Apocalypse's numbers?
Isn't the movie being screened anymore?
Yeah, it was 10th last weekend in its second weekend. It's since fallen out of the Top 10. It's going to finish with about 800 million ($8 million); down about 25% compared to Days of Futures Past, but it would finish above First Class by 5%.
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Turtles could come in a little higher. It was given a wide 3D/4D release (a total waste of 4D screens), which could drive the avg. ticket price up substantially. I went with a slightly lower price though, assuming that it attracted a fair number of kids. If it comes in any higher, it shouldn't be by much though.
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(C)2016「君の名は。」製作委員会Weekend Estimates (08/27-28)
01 (---) ¥875,000,000 ($8.7 million), 0, ¥1,225,000,000 ($12.1 million), Your Name. (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥342,000,000 ($3.4 million), -10%, ¥5,200,000,000 ($50.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK5
03 (02) ¥304,000,000 ($3.0 million), -17%, ¥3,125,000,000 ($30.9 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK3
04 (---) ¥200,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($2.0 million), Black Widow Business (Toho) NEW
05 (03) ¥147,000,000 ($1.4 million), -38%, ¥800,000,000 ($7.9 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) WK2
06 (05) ¥143,000,000 ($1.4 million), -27%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.9 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) WK2
07 (06) ¥130,000,000 ($1.3 million), -31%, ¥6,400,000,000 ($62.1 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK7
08 (04) ¥124,000,000 ($1.2 million), -39%, ¥1,750,000,000 ($17.4 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK3
09 (---) ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (Paramount) NEW
10 (07) ¥109,000,000 ($1.0 million), -29%, ¥4,750,000,000 ($45.8 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK6Your Name. experiences a blockbuster opening weekend, eclipsing even the highest of expectations prior to the weekend.
Acclaimed director, Makoto Shinkai, is viewed as a candidate to succeed Hayao Miyazaki's in Japan as the country's top film director, and he delivered in every way imaginable with his first wide release this weekend. Shinkai is no stranger to critically-acclaimed films; he's been releasing films since 2004, though only in limited release. But well-received, award-winning films are only half of the battle to achieving the title critics and audiences are bestowing upon him. And through the immense reputation he's built with his limited releases, he's hit it out of the park at the box office with his first wide release this weekend.
Your Name., based on weekend estimates (and only Sunday is an estimate, Toho was quick at releasing the numbers for Friday and Saturday), is without a doubt one of the biggest and most surprising opening weekends that I can remember. There's no precedent for an opening of this level for an original film, animated or not, that wasn't assisted by an established director and/or studio at the box office.
Toho is projecting the film will reach a total of ¥6 billion ($60 million), a projection that's already almost 100% certain. When you factor in that it sold through nearly 50% of its weekend admissions (helping to boost the holdovers in the process via sellouts), and just how well-received it's been so far, I highly doubt it finishes below ¥7 billion ($70 million). And if audiences truly recognize Shinkai as Miyazaki's true successor, and this weekend is a strong indication that they have, then we could be looking at a potential run much more than ¥7 billion ($70 million).
I'll provide some lists later today showcasing just how substantial this opening weekend really is.
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Very likely.
I'll post Weekend Estimates soon (an hour, two max)
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Makoto Shinkai's latest, and first wide release, Your Name. is off to a blockbuster start at the box office before the weekend even finishes, earning ¥770 million ($7.6 million) with over 590,000 admissions after just two days in release (Friday and Saturday).
On Friday, it grossed ¥348 million ($3.4 million) on 270,000 admissions
On Saturday, it grossed ¥422 million ($4.2 million) on 320,000 admissions.And Sunday is even bigger than Friday or Saturday, so once it's recorded, its opening weekend frame (Sat. and Sun.) could end up near ¥900 million ($9 million) with over 650,000 admissions, bringing its first three days in above ¥1.2 billion ($12 million) with over 900,000 admissions.
Toho is projecting a total of ¥6 billion ($60 million) before the weekend even concludes, but that's almost certainly low-balling given the outstanding reviews and audience reception. We're probably looking at possibly ¥7 or 8 billion ($70-80 million), or possibly more.
This opening is so massive, that it easily shatter the record for biggest opening weekend for an original animated film, excluding Disney/Pixar and Studio Ghibli entries... but while we're talking about them, the opening here could be higher than any Disney/Pixar film and non-Miyazaki Ghibli film as well!
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It reached a capacity comfortably over 50% at the usual locations for Sunday. An opening over 800 million ($8 million) might just be possible, allowing it to easily exceed the 1 billion milestone after three days in release; probably looking at 1.1/1.2 billion ($11/12 million) even.
This film is a true beast, and may have opened higher than any Disney/Pixar or non-Miyazaki Ghibli animated film in terms of admissions. And legs are likely to be incredible judging by its outstanding reviews and audience scores.
Toho is already projecting a total of 6 billion ($60 million), but that's probably low-balling it.
I'll have some Weekend Estimates up in a couple hours.
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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW
in International Box Office
Posted
It's hard to project a finish while it's still performing so well. It's going to exceed 7 billion, though, which will earn it at least 4.8 million admissions. It could make a run at 7.5-8 billion+, though, so it could even reach 5.2-5.5 million admissions.