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langer

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    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    12 hours ago, DAJK said:

    I love what Bonenash said earlier about JC not even being a filmmaker. He's an explorer and inventor of technology, and his films are a product of that. Cameron is a genius I'll tell ya that. 

     

    May I ask about the calculations? I haven't spent a whole lot of time looking at all the territories but I could see an increase OS compensating for a decrease domestically, resulting in a WW total even with the first one. But honestly my range is anywhere from 1.5-2.8B. This is gonna be one of the hardest to predict movies in a while.

     

    People will start predicting 400-500M DOM for this... then the first teaser will hit and people will grudgingly up their predict to 450-550M, then the first trailer will hit and some people will remember how they felt when they first saw Avatar in 3D and will up their predicts to 500-600M...then the second trailer will be released alongside the full marketing campaign and people will once again up their predict to 600-700M...then sellouts report will start popping alongside reviews and they will finally give in and up their predicts to 750-900M.  Kal will come to this thread and predict 400M OW and 2,1B DOM and we will have a great time. 

     

    Bookmark this and be amazed when this all unfolds two years from now. 

    • Like 4

    2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, trifle said:

    A Beautiful Planet is about to come out. Will it take over those theaters?

     

    http://variety.com/2016/film/reviews/a-beautiful-planet-film-review-1201762335/

     

    Space Station 3D plays in about 3 to 10 theaters on average and I guess it's not the same theaters all the time, most likely a rotation.   But seeing as this is another NASA film, this might cut into the already low theater count.  We'll see.  

    • Like 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

     

    I explained in the post but Domestic is now China. We're talking about December 2018 so Chinese cinema is the domestic by then, everything else is foreign.

     

    I thought NA was US+Canada.

     

    China is China.  DOM is US + Canada.  NA is Mexico, USA & Canada.  Once the yuan becomes the international "safe" currency, we can start counting BO in yuan.  Unless I didn't the memo where Domestic is now China (or will be...W/E).   Until then, stick to the current way of analyzing BO. 

    • Like 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:


    All we need is Domestic to make to make up for a reduced North American intake, if it's lower than North America's 720m that is.

     

    I'm certain that Avatar 2's Domestic plus North America will beat Avatar's Domestic plus North America.

     

     

    This is really confusing...  DOM = US + Canada.  North America = DOM + Mexico. 

     

    I don't understand why you say DOM + North America. 

    How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by langer

    On ‎3‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 2:31 PM, langer said:

    The-Numbers has been catching up on their charts lately, releasing 2 charts per week and are now about 4 weeks behind which is still behind what they used to do in the past (2 weeks).

     

    Movies from September and October (Maze Runner, Martian, SOC, HT2) are popping up on the charts with tepid HV sales that will end up between 20M$ and 40M$ each once all is said and done.

     

    The next few weeks should see bigger movies being released on HV:

    The Peanuts Movie - 40M$ potential

    Spectre - 50M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$ - definitely won't reach QoS's current 61M$)

    Hunger Games MJ2 - 50M$-60M$ potential (could be as low as 40M$)

    The Good Dinosaur - 50M$ potential (should recoup its bad DOM BO on HV...hopefully)

    Alvin 4 - 35M$ potential

    Star Wars - 150M$-200M$ potential (tricky prediction - this should definitely be better than JW's 125M$, but how high can it go?)

     

     

    - Peanuts is currently at 22M and should get at least 35M before dropping out of the top 30.  It will crawl to 40M eventually.

     

    - HG MJ2 opened to 21M$ on Blu Ray which is better than expected.  This should guarantee at least  50M$ in combined sales depending on how strong DVD sales are.  60M$ is not out of the question. 

     

    - Spectre is at 32M at the moment and should also leave the top 30 with about 37-38M.  Will reach 40M in its first year, but most likely won't reach 50M unless it gets some special deals.

     

    - The Good Dinosaur is at 44M at the moment and still selling strong.  50M is locked for this. 

     

    - Alvin 4 will have a hard time reaching 25M (currently at around 8M) , which is less than half of Alvin 3 and less than 20% of the original.  Would be surprised if they move ahead with a fifth entry.   

     

    Numbers for SW should be coming in about 2 weeks.  Week of March 27th was the first week since November 29th (Black Friday week) that a SW boxed set was not in the top 20 Blu Ray sales.  If we ignore the Black Friday week, you have to go back to the week ending April 5th to have a top 20 Blu Ray without any SW box set.  Since then:

     

    The OT box set grossed : 55M$

    The PT box set grossed : 34M$

    The saga box set grossed : 95M$ ! 

    How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    On ‎3‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 3:04 PM, bapi said:

    Rio 2 finished with 52M and Mr. Peabody & Shermanwith 29M. And that was two years ago. So personally don't think The Good Dinosaur will make more than 20-25M. Also would say that Spectre will finish under 40M.

     

    Looks like Spectre will crawl to 40M, but The Good Dinosaur should make it to 50M as it raked 27M in its first week. 

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