[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

5 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Kalogical thinking is making a club predicting the movie would open to $300 million. I didn't join that club. Anyways, I was right. It didn't perform like a typical December release at all. It opened like a summer movie, it 100% dominated the holiday season, only to see a sharp fall in the new year. If it hadn't taken that fall, it's multipler would have been higher. It's one of the most amazing runs in history and part of that is how it was it's own beast independent of its status as a December movie.

 

I wonder if it has to do with TFA being released in December...  All movies fall after New Year...it's not SW-specific. 

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

8 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

So there's a chance SS have a better multiple than Civil War? Who would've thought SS would end up being more well-liked than that movie? Wow

 

Inb4 BKB post about OW, DOM ,WW gross as well as a bunch of GIF of sad Batfleck. 

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

12 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Yeah, really. Once again, I don't treat TFA as a December release. I treat it as a unique case. It's your kind of thinking that led people to mock me when I said that TFA would break the OW in December.

 

First bold part shows some Kalogical thinking.  Second part is a nice use of the strawman fallacy. 

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

4 minutes ago, RandomJC said:

 

If the reverse was true? that if TFA would be released in May, would it get the same gross, but open 350M+?

 

Probably around 300M, I believe it would have gotten the same gross. 

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

3 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

Wait, I have a question for you. What do you think would've been the final gross of Avengers/JW if they had TFA's release date?

 

same gross that they had, with lower OWs for both

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

700M$ expected for TFA in December after a 250M$ OW...really?  2,8X multi in December....really?  Talk about nonsense...

[BOT Top 100 Animated Films of all time - 24hours left to get votes in...]

I'm not into animation, so it will be a short list.

 

1. South Park

2. Shrek

3. Wreck it Ralph

4. The Incredibles

5. Despicable Me

6. Monster Inc.

7. Toy Story 1

8. UP

9. Shrek 2

10. The LEGO movie

11. Wall-E

12. Big Hero 6

13. Titan A.E.

14. The Simpsons Movie

15. Finding Nemo

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

1 hour ago, NuTella Lover of Sky Beams said:

 

You can compare -- as long as you factor in the OW and the inevitable audience bleed-off from that. Despite many, many huge tentpoles opening in the Christmas season, none ever even came close to cracking 100m. The fact that TFA did 2.5x that... and then went on to a 3.7x+ multi on top of that is remarkable. (The only two Christmas releases I think are more impressive -- and they're significantly more impressive -- are TITANIC and AVATAR).

 

If you find it remarkable that TFA didn't drop like a rock after its huge OW, good for you.  I showed  that JW and Avengers didn't drop like rocks like most other May and June movies despite having huge OW.  While having longer legs is easier when you open to below 40M$, setting OW record is not a guarantee of Friday the 13th legs. 

 

Come on guys...the worst December movie has similar legs to Captain America The Winter Soldier.  Was that impressive for The Day The Earth Stood Still? 

 

248M$ OW : remarkable

937M$ DOM : remarkable

3,7X multi : good, but not remarkable

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

11 minutes ago, RandomJC said:

 

But you can't compare TFA to other December openers because of the openening. The multi looks unremarkable if you ignore the OW, and you can't just ignore that it made 3 times the Hobbit opening weekend. If you take the entire run of JW and pin it to TFA's opening, that would be less that TFA's actual total. 

 

All right, if you can't compare to other December openings, what comparison do YOU use to state that TFA's multi is remarkable?  Keeping in mind I just showed you that on average, December movies have a 3,5X multi while May/June movies have a 2,55X multi.  On this basis, shouldn't TFA have a 4X to 4,1X multi to at least match Avengers and JW? 

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

2 minutes ago, NuTella Lover of Sky Beams said:

 

What years are you pulling your data for? I understand what you're saying, but I also think we're starting to split hairs. After TFA's OW, I think most were figuring a 3x multi. The fact it ended up closer to 4x than 3x+ is pretty impressive to me. 

 

JW's legs were stronger-than-expected too, but I'm not sure what that has to do with TFA. 

 

Yeah I'm splitting hair, I'm saying TFA's multi is above average, but not remarkable.  Semantics.

 

I'm using the  last 10 years basically for data.  

I am Legend did 3,3X

TH1 did 3,6X

TH2 did 3,5X

 

A 3X multi in December is pretty bad - Ocean's 12 (3,23X), Golden Compass (2,8X) and The Day the Earth Stood Still (2,6X) kinda run.  If most people were expecting that, they only had to look at the data too see they were lowballing it. 

 

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

33 minutes ago, RandomJC said:

 

The standard December release isn't 250M opening. The previous record holder was 80M. 3.7 off 80M is an entirely different thing than 3.7 off 250M. You can't just ignore the starting point.

 

To call something remarkable, you have to compare it to something unremarkable.   If you can't compare it to something released in the same period, then you have to compare it to something as big that was released in a different period, but you have to adjust for December holidays to make a good comparison. 

 

There are arguably only 3 movies  that opened on the scale of TFA : JW (June - 3,13X multi), Avengers (May - 3,01X multi) and AoU (May - 2,40X multi). 

 

May mid size blockbuster movies get on average 2,5X multipliers (excluding Wed/thurs release), making  AoU below average, but not bad, while Avengers is considered great.  Remarkable for May is over 3,25X (SM1, ST09).

 

June mid size blockbuster movies get on average  2,6X multi (excluding Wed/Thurs releases) for live action and 3,5X multi for animation.  This makes JW's multi a remarkable one for a live action movie, but average for all movies which we know we shouldn't compare live action to animation, so we won't say JW's multi was average. 

 

December mid size blockbuster movies get on average (excluding Avatar and Wednesday releases) 3,7X multi and 3,5X multi if we exclude also Narnia.  This makes TFA's multi an above average multiplier, but not a remarkable one. 

 

What was remarkable about TFA was the OW, its legs were standard. 

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

3 minutes ago, RandomJC said:

 

It was never going to get a 4.25 off a 250M opening weekend. My point is it's a great multiplier for it's opening. to nearly push 3.8x off a 250M opening is great.

 

For December, it's standard though.  A bad multiplier for  mid-December is 3 - 3,25X. 

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

3 minutes ago, RandomJC said:

 

A standard multiplier off a movie that opened nearly 3 times larger than the previous biggest opener for DEC. It's multiplier looks not as good because the front end is massively larger than anything the release date has seen. TFA made more after it's opening weekend than Titanic made in it's entire run.

 

Exactly. 

[Fanboy Wars Thread: Personal Attacks not allowed | With Digital Fur Technology]

14 hours ago, NuTella Lover of Sky Beams said:

 

I agree with your overall sentiment but not this: TFA had remarkably good legs for such a huge opener. In terms of Friday openers, I think it beats everyone but AVATAR (for, say, legs on OWs over $50m).

 

TFA had a standard mid December multiplier.  Anything over 4,25X would have been remarkable IMO... Semantics I guess. 

[Biggest sequel under performance of 2016 (DOM) January-September]

Biggest drops (either $ or %)

 

Independence Day : From 306M$ to 103M$

Alice in Wonderland : From 334M$ to 77M$

TMNT : From 191M$ to 82M$

Allegiant : From 130M$ to 66M$

NYSM : From 118M$ to 65M$

Ice Age : From 161M$ to 62M$

Neighbors : From 150M4 to 55M$

MBFGW : From 241M$ to 60M$ (don't think anyone was expecting anything close to the original on this though...)

Huntsman : From 155M$ to 48M$

GND : From 61M4 to 21M$

Batman (from TDKR) : From 448M$ to 330M$

[Biggest sequel under performance of 2016 (DOM) January-September]

2016 saw a bunch of sequels/reboot and the majority of them ended up grossing less than their previous entry.  What do you consider is the worst performance for a sequel DOM so far this year? 

[How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS]

By the way, I've kept a monthly chart of most franchise and standalone blockbuster movies going back to September 2015 to see how these movies grow in terms of $ (rounded to the million $) even when they are not making the top 30.  If you guys have any questions about trends, growth and sequel bumps effect, don't hesitate to ask.

[How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS]

21 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Even with Netflix streaming?

 

I think so yeah, at least matching them.  Minions and IO are at 108-109M$ at the moment 6 months after their release, while Lego stands at 124M$, 2 years after its release.   Lego was at 105M$ 6 months into its release after both Black Friday and Christmas boosts.  Lego also received a BF boost in its 2nd year of release.  Zootopia is running slightly ahead of Lego on Blu Ray but has a 30%+ lead on DVD (64M$ combined for Zoo vs 57M$ for Lego after 3 weeks).  It should stay in the top 30 charts until BF and Christmas and I don't think competition (FD - SLOP) will hurt it too much.   Minions will receive a sequel boost next year with DM3.  Zootopia has to pass it before then. 

 

I believe Zootopia, IO and Minions will all be around 115M$ after Christmas. 

[How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS]

3 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

It is still the 2nd highest selling DVD of 2015. Holidays or not.

After Jurassic World.

Also most dvd sales crashed on Chrismtas week by 70-90%. Not just Minions.

 

Just saying that the week to week comparison will not work until the 4th week for Minions.  Inside Out also had Black Friday on its 4th week and Christmas boost on its 7th end 8th week.  Comparisons with these movies for total units after 10+ weeks makes sense while doing week-to-week will not show the true story because of the different release dates.  Chances are good that Zootopia will have a BF boost in November too, 5 months into its HV run.  I believe Zootopia will end up beating these two movies in terms of $. 

[How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS]

21 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

ZOO sales compared to 1st 2 weeks of Minions and IO:

 

ZOO after 2 weeks: 2.8 million copies (blu+dvd)

MINIONS after 2 weeks: 4 million copies sold (blu+dvd)

IO: 2.5 million copies sold (blu+dvd)

Source: THE NUMBERS

CC: @cannastop@Jason

 

Just note that Minions first two weeks were the last two weeks leading to Christmas.  It crashed 84-87% on its 4th week. 

[How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS]

Looks like Zootopia is following The Lego Movie on the Blu Ray sales in terms of $, but it's currently 70% ahead in terms of units.  This means Lego Blu rays sold for 35 $ / unit while Zootopia is around 21 $ / unit.  On  the other hand, Lego's DVD were sold at 15 $ / unit while Zootopia are being sold at 20$ / unit on average according to The Numbers. 

 

While the sequel to TMNT has been very soft compared to the reboot, it has had an impact on the HV sales of the latter, pushing it from 95M$ in combined sales to 98M$ as of June 26th.  Should probably be enough to tip it over to 100M$ by the end of the year.   With 82M$ DOM in its theatrical release, a 3rd movie is unlikely though. 

[Mechanic: Resurrection | August 26, 2016 | Trailer on page 2]

Saw it yesterday with a huge crowd of 5 at a 9:45 showing.  Definitely weaker than the first which was a solid B+ for me. 

 

The hitman portion of the movie is good and "believable".  The love story and the plot about tricking him into doing these hits is simply not working.  This makes it a C movie for me. 

 

Tommy Lee Jones has a weird role in this.  Still not sure if I like it or not. 

 

Would be surprised if they ever do a third one. 

[Birth of a Nation | Fox Searchlight | Sundance Grand Jury Prize. ONLY DISCUSS THE MOVIE AND BOX OFFICE IN THIS THREAD.]

The real question is : does William Hurt have a cameo in this as General Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross? 

 

Please keep this on topic guys. 

[The Upside (Intouchables Remake) | Jan 11 2019 | STX picks it up | Bryan Cranston and Kevin Hart. Neil Burger to direct.]

2 hours ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

Why does it bother some of you if it is remade?  It doesn't take anything away from the original.  And this gives a whole bunch of people the chance to see another version of it and then maybe check out the original.  Seems like a good deal to me.

 

It could turn out like Dinner for Schmuks though... 

[How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS]

Nice to see Star Wars still in the top 10 nearly half a year after its release.