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dxmatrixdt

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  1. Maleficent: 128 million in 10 days. 142 after 14 days. 16.5 3rd weekend? It would need 58 million more after being out 2 full weeks to hit 200M. It would need 65 more after 2 weeks to reach a 3.0 multiplier. I do not think HTTY2 will hurt it other than another 50% drop. I think it gets to 160 after its 3rd weekend and a 17M weekend. 179 after the 4th weekend. 190 after 5th weekend. 197 after 6th weekend (4th of July) 2.4 7th weekend - 201 total 1.4 8th weekend - 203.5 total 0.8 9th weekend - 205 total 209.2 finish.
  2. X-Men - 94 Captain - 92 Godzilla - 85 Neighbors - 87.5 Spider-Man - 83.5 Transcendence - 75 Quiet Ones - 74 Oculus - 80 I, Frankenstein - 62 Devil's Due - 73 Paranormal 4.5 - 75 Pompeii - 79 Robocop - 76 That Awkward Moment - 79 The Monument's Men - 79 Ride Along - 68
  3. good # for Fault in our Stars. do not understand the segregation with the teenage girl thing. who cares? last time a checked, a movie theater is a venue. I think its real Friday # should hold on Saturday. The real Friday# to Saturday increase with Godzilla was about 10%. How will Fault in Our Stars be any different? 18M Friday + 8M Previews + 19 Saturday + 13 Sunday. 58M Weekend. boom!
  4. what does May mean to June? June of last year: 1. Man of Steel - 291 2. Monsters U - 268 3. WWZ - 202 4. The Heat - 160 5. This is the End - 101 6. White house Down - 73 7. The Purge - 64 8. The Internship - 45 Bling Ring 6 This year: Edge of Tomorrow, Fault in our Stars, 22 Jump Street, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Think Like a Man Too, Jersey Boys, The Rover, Transformers 1. Transformers - 300 2. HTTYD2 - 290 3. 22 Jump Street - 160 4. Edge of Tomorrow - 150 5. Fault in Our Stars - 100 6. Think Like A Man Too - 100 Jersey Boys - 50 The Rover - 35
  5. In a different, worst case, what-if scenario, who would have thought May ends like this? 1, X-Men 220 2. Maleficent 205 3. Spider-man 201 4. Godzilla 195 5. Neighbors 150 Million Ways to Die in the West - 45 Blended - 40 I guess Captain does deserve to be in the top 5 of the year
  6. next weekend Edge of Tomorrow - (3520 location)($11550/location) = $40,660,000 Fault in our Stars - (3203 location)($12550/location) = $40,200,000 Maleficent - (-52%) 32.80 - 120.91
  7. worked out some #'s! Maleficent opens with 68.3. A 25.0 opening day with 4.2 from Thursday. The real Friday number is 20.8. Audiences have a lukewarm response as alot of teenagers and adults saw this Friday, but the kids and families will still be in full force to catch this Saturday. A great 30% increase for the hyped Jole feature gives the Saturday # at 26.39. Since Sunday shall be big too, a 32% drop could happen. A 17.94 Sunday happen giving Maleficent an impressive PSA at almost $17,500. Without the previews, the PSA would be at 16,236. I am guessing the second weekend will have a PSA at $8300. Spider-man had a PSA of 8210 in its second weekend, X-men had 8000, and Godzilla had 7831. Therefore i predict Maleficent will fall 52 percent and be at 120.91 after week 2 and going on to gross 180-190. X-Men took a hit. A Friday per screen average of 2350 it has. In its second Friday, Spider-man had 2318 and Godzilla did 2227. Spidey had quite a Saturday jump, and i do not think X-Men will reach that height, but it should hit 8000 for the week, a tad under spidey. In Spideys third weekend, it averaged 4215, an under 50% drop against Godzilla. Look for X-Men to match that. $4250 per location at 3721 locations will give it 52% drop to 15.81, a total of 188.49 and a total of 220-225M. Million Ways to Die in the West will enjoy at least moderate success. At least it is pacing a little bit above The Internship showing that the marketplace still has some strength if you want to compare with last year. The theater count of 3158 is lower than usual so a average of $5702 gives it a weekend of 18.01. I expect the Saturday # to barely inch up from the REAL friday #. Why? I think there may be a little life to this movie, and alot of the target audience does exist in the middle of this country. Next weekend, maybe it drops 53 percent to 8.45 and a total of 33.46. There is no competition keeping the drop at half. Look for a total of 45-55. Million Dollar Arm has safely brought in some cash. It will average $1614 per location, a little under last weekend. Remember, this lost alot of theaters this weekend. Next weekend, if it averages $1250 with another big theater loss, it will drop 52% to 1.79 million and a new total of 31.21. With a budget of 25 million, this should finish at 35 million and pay off its advertising budget with the theatrical run and find a small profit on home video. Godzilla has its third Friday at a PSA of $914. Spideys was $1140. Compared to the Friday before, the PSA drop was a bad 59%. A Saturday increase of about 45%, a Sunday drop of 35% is respectable, and fudge the PSA up a tad and it gets $3151. This is nearly a quarter off from Spiderman and my projection of X-men. Perhaps X-men will do in between Godzilla and Spider with a 3rd weekend PSA of 3750? Anyways, I just do not see this making much more with the straight cometition from all ends. Giving it a 4th weekend PSA of 1700 would equate to a 42 percent loss from locations when Eot and Fault in Our Stars come out. Add in a gooz size theater loss of 701 locations gives it 2800 locations. (2800 locations)(1700/location) = 4.76s, or another drop of 57%. And a total of 183,54. Look for it to have its 4th weekend at 2000 locations and a better average of 1400. A lighter drop of 41% to 2.8 million and a total of 189.05 shows 200M is reachable. Or just think it will be above 188 after next weekend. The weekend before Transformers comes out, another 1.5 million puts it at a total of 192. Most likely this will be at 196,588,555 and get a push on labor day weekend getting it at 198 until dollar theaters finally fudge it to 200. That is my best case scenario. It is a giant lizard film so legs are tough. Good thing they kept the budget at 160. Look for the sequel to improve in many ways. Blended did welll. An openeng PSA of 4,000 and dropping to 2169 shows Sandler is not done. The studio may have taken a hit, but not Sandler. As it sheds 800 screens next weekend, look for the average to be at 1550 and Blended to fall another 45%. It will do 4.27 that weekend with a grand total of 35,54. A dollar theater run consisting of weekends of $1,000PSA may prolong its total to 44.5 million. Not bad after its 4 million opening day. Neighbors held. Last weekend it averaged $4,295 with a bigger Sunday making a deflated average of 4k more likely to relate with. It is in line to average $2471 this weekend and it also did not loose too many screens. If it looses twice as many screens next weekend as it did from this weekend, and looses 1/4 of its business and averages 1825, it will drop 40% to 4..38 and hit a total of 135.48. Something above 135 should be in line the week before 22 Jump Street. With weekdays, it will be past 137 before Jump Street, and should finish with 145-155. Last is Spider-man. With the friday estrimate it has, a 60% Saturday increase and a 35% Sunday decrease will get it at 4.01 for the weeekdn. I am glad it might clear 4. That gives a new total of 192.97. Its PSA is a bit under last week, so it held some business. $1864. It should loose a minimum of 800 locations next weekdn putting it at 1352 locations. $1450 of business gives it a minumum of 1.96 for that weekend and a 51% drop. If it looses more theaters, its PSA will bump up a little. look for a PSA above 1k for a while now. 196.22 total the weekend before HTTYD2. maybe 198 after that weekend hedging it to 200M before 4th of July. Dollar theaters should get this thing at 203.5
  8. those numbers helped show the behavior of how different movies perform. The bright side is, Maleficent cleared 60M. Paves the way for Edge and 22 Jump
  9. TASM2 will hit 200M but Godzilla will not .... X-Men will hold up better than Godzilla Good # for Blended taking it as a romcom Neighbors may reach 150M!! the only hope is that the Satuurday increases are not as small as they have been the last 2 weeks
  10. i want a crack at this. so in between sleep cycles is a persons day. each day is a quest and throughout this day one ponders something. maybe it is a distraction but it ultimately becomes a question and a continuous struggle. then we all must attest to it because from ones point of view, all the rest of us will become projections of our own mind and other people will answer the question for you. since it all stems from our mind and causes insanity, it becomes the bane of our mortal existence. bane = misery, therefore we create our own monsters and cannot escape our mind and human nature.
  11. xmen will make 35 million for a complimentary 62 percent drop. 165 after this weekend, and who knows how close it will be to x3. if this week it averages 8,800 per location, and then looses 300 screens next weekend... 3700 screens times $4,250 per screen average against EoT and Fault in our Stars = almost 16 million. also 3 million per weekday next week. xmen after its third weekend could end at 16 mil, another 55 percent drop, and a total of 193. from there, EoT will be a must see during the weekdays, X-men will probably drop to 1.65/day. give that 6.6 for the week. Facing competition with 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon will give it another 50% drop most likely. seeing as it this movie has goodwill, a decline in the per screen average from 4400 to 2500 seems logical. I think Wolverine did 2400 as it shed more screens. HTTYD2 and 22 Jump Street will fill up 7500 theaters at least. X-men should loose 600 and be at 3000 for that week with the 2400 dollar average/location. 7.2 million. 7.2 + 6.6 + 193 = 206.8by then, the marketplace will become more saturated. a nicer 1.1/day may result until it looses another 600 theaters. 2400 theaters, Think Like a Man Too and Jersey Boys saturating more marketplace, and X-Men resting on word of mouth and those who still need to see it/see it once more campaign, i think it will hold up in the per screen average department. 1700/screen times 2400 theaters = 4.1 million. 4.1 + 4.4 + 206.8 = 215.3 million us total.then comes Transformers. Captain America seemed to hold well. Give X-Men another 600 theater loss and a per screen average of 1250 dollars per theater at 1800 theaters is 2.3 million. with recieving .65/day weekday before that, the new total becomes 2.6 + 2.3 + 220.2So if X-Men wants to get to 240, it is going to need WOM and a more booming marketplace to do so.
  12. I bet William H. Macy (in Jurassic Park 3) will bet anything in his left back pocket that B&R got good reviews
  13. Jurassic Park 3 was a family film and was no walk in the park, Any idea if there will be late Sunday night numbers for this specific weekend?
  14. Godzilla did take a fall, but like what George Clooney would say in Gravity is that it depends on what Godzilla does now. maybe a weekend of 8 million followed by a weekend of 7 million with 1 million weekdays in between?
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