Gokai Red
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Posts posted by Gokai Red
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Avengers 2-1.75B
Avatar 2-2.2B
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Were you that bad?I made someone cry during sex but I think that's a little too much information
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Yesterday at work, I saw a little girl, no more than 3 or 4, come to see Frozen with her parents. She was wearing a Princess Anna costume and had her hair in Anna's pigtails. It was the cutest thing ever, I swear.
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Don't forget that today, Catching Fire passed 400m!
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Any estimates for Catching Fire for the weekend?
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Why do they need to film in New Zealand? They couldn't find any of these anywhere else?
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That's the wrong song! D:<Just hold on, we're going home
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And good luck on your exams!
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That was fast. Thanks!
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The thread title should be updated to show where the movie's at, or does nobody care about CF's OS grosses anymore?
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Lol, well that's very mean on Baumer's part, because I'm sure a lot of people believed him. XDBaumer made it up, we've no numbers other than Rth saying it's bigger than Thor 2's 7M+. We won't see Nikkifinke.com until next year.
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I never really kept up with Nikki, but that's just tragic.
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Obligatory "look at how well Despicable Me 2 is still doing" comment.
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Based on what? They didn't "do everything in their power" to push it past TDK OW total now did they?"
They made that 161.1 estimate to steal some headlines though. By everything in their power, I mostly meant they'll keep absolutely as many theaters as possible, maybe re-expand in late Jan/early Feb, and maybe do a little bit of fudging.
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I really can't see these numbers happening.
Because too high or too low?
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But if it gets as close to THG and IM3 as Hiccup suggests, I'm sure LG would do everything in their power to get it over those two.
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DH1 was able to do $51m after a third weekend of $17m.
CF is going to be able to do $64m after a third weekend of $27m.
Okay, I think this really puts things in perspective for me. As much as I love Potter, Hunger Games is on a completely different level Domestic Box Office Wise. Thanks Noctis.
400m is damn near certain. Beating THG and IM3 is what the real challenge will be, yes?
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Explain his films Aliens( its still the biggest film of the franchise), Explain the mega jump of T2 from T1....
Did I mention James Cameron is the only director in history to have back to back all time biggest grossing films in history.
He is also the only person to garner such attention in film history and accolades that even studios decided Avatar is so epic we need to build new theaters to accomodate this thing. .James Cameron can and always has defied typical movie performance. To doubt him being able to repeat it with the Juggernaut 2015/2016 is to court destruction
LOLThe Alien franchise isn't nearly as big as Titanic/Avatar. And adjusted, Alien made more than Aliens. I don't know what the point of bringing this up was though. And I don't understand what you brought up Terminator for either. They're both by Cameron, so that just proves he can make low grossing movies too. But still, T1's adjusted 91m is extremely easy to improve on.
If you really expect him to pull off another biggest of all time movie, you're setting yourself up to be disappointed. I''m not saying it can't happen, I'm saying you shouldn't expect it to happen. If you don't expect it to happen, and it does happen, then that's a pleasant surprise. If you don't expect it to happen, and it doesn't, then oh well, that's what you expected.
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Some people here have been mentioning that 400m is no longer a lock for CF. Does this seem true? I figured it can still beat IM3 due to Holiday legs, but what do you guys think?
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Why is 75% of this topic Superman0001 fanboying? Also, why do you call it Juggernaut?
I would hate to doubt Cameron, and it would be amazing if he could pull off biggest movie of all time 3 or 4 or 5 times in a row, but I just can't see it happening. Other record breaking movies are record breaking because they do something never before seen, or completely redefine a genre. Avatar 1, as many have already said, was sold on its groundbreaking and amazing VFX and usage of 3D, fully bringing the audience into the world of Pandora. The sequels have Avatar's and Cameron's goodwill going for them, but I doubt that they will offer something groundbreaking or redefining.
Speaking of the 3D, Avatar was the first movie in this 3D craze that we're going through. IIRC, without 3D, Avatar would sit around where TDK is, but that wasn't my math, so that could be wrong. The 3D thing is basically dead in North America, and by 2015, the rest of the world will probably be tired of it as well. As such, there will be a much smaller 3D share for Avatar 2, and thus, lower grosses.
Another thing worth mentioning that I haven't seen mentioned is pop culture. Despite being the biggest movie of all time, I don't see references to it in other media or pop culture like I see with other movies like Titanic, Harry Potter, Star Wars, Batman, etc. I almost feel as if the first movie just made a GIGANTIC splash and then just disappeared.
Lastly, the gigantic sequel expansion rule. Almost all movies that have made more than 400m DOM adjusted never see their sequel improve upon it. Dead Man's Chest, The Twin Towers, Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, Return of the Jedi, and soon Catching Fire are the only exceptions to the rule, and even then, 400m is a lot easier to improve on than 750m. But like others have already said, biggest movies of all time have never seen their sequels increase either. OS, I see potential for this increasing due to overseas expansion since 2009, but probably not by much.
TLDR- Avatar 1 was a box office anomaly. To repeat that amount of success is extremely unlikely, if not impossible.
My prediction 3+ years out. 140 OW, 600 DOM, 1600 OS, 2200 WW.
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575, although I wouldn't be surprised if it went as low as 500 or as high as 700
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Yep. When BOM shut down, he started up a temporary forum called Mojo Refugees... that became a forum called Box Office Theory, and eventually that forum merged/was incorporated into boxoffice.com and became the forums here.
Wow. I never knew that. It really makes sense though, considering how well most of you get along and how you guys seem to really know each other personally. One day, I'll get on that level ;D
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I still don't know exactly what happened, but the site got really messed up in October 2011, and Shawn created this new forum, which really grew in a matter of time.
And so is Shawn the big dog/owner of this site?
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What happened to BOM? Why did they shut it down?
Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Your gigantic ranges are annoying, and I'd appreciate it if you didn't talk down on me as if I were a child. And I'd love to see where you got that 300+% 3D screens thing.
Let's see some predictions from you, and some reasoning behind it.
I predict Age of Ultron will do about 580/1200/1780 for the following reasons:
-sequels to movies that grossed over 400m have never grossed more than their immediate predecessor, with one exception, six if you adjust (Catching Fire, Dead Man's Chest, The Two Towers, The Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, and Return of the Jedi). Even then, most of those movies grossed in the 400-500 range, which is much easier to improve upon than 620
-a larger OW than seems likely, although with slightly weaker legs
-now that the OS audience has been hooked on Marvel (look at IM3's 806 compared to Avengers' 895), I see at least a slight decrease in developed markets (similar to DOM), although a larger increase in developing markets that will make up for it
I predict Avatar 2 will do about 600/1600/2200 for the following reasons:
-Cameron
-sequels to movies that grossed over 400m have never grossed more than their immediate predecessor, with one exception, six if you adjust (Catching Fire, Dead Man's Chest, The Two Towers, The Return of the King, Revenge of the Sith, and Return of the Jedi). Even then, most of those movies grossed in the 400-500 range, which is much easier to improve upon than 760
-there has never been a sequel to a biggest of all time movie that increased in a developed market, so I predict ~20% decreases in most major markets, and although the developing markets will increase, the 3D shares will be lower
-building on that, the 3D craze that the original Avatar started is slowly dying, and by the time the sequel comes out (7 years), 3D may be even less appealing
-building on that, the bigger the gap between installments, usually, the harder it is to match or surpass the original, unadjusted
This isn't about one movie doing better than the other. I accessed both movies individually, and this is what I came up with. So I think your A2 beating AOU by 2.2B thing is bullshit.
Let's see your argument.