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Gokai Red

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Posts posted by Gokai Red

  1. You must not forget that domestic and much of the OS grosses in July and August (except for Minions) left the BO fans despaired, angry, frustrated or bored. And now the China grosses don't live up to the expectations. I think next year will be, if not as big, probably more fun and interesting to follow. The first half of year with KFP3, Deadool, Zoolander 2, BvS and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will be much more enjoyable than this spring. 

    Good point. I suppose from simply a big numbers point of view, 2015 will be tough to beat. I had actually forgotten how bored I was during the past couple months. 2015 has been extremely feast of famine at the box office, and I would hope that the years to come have more mid-range hits.

  2. ^ Exactly. I was looking through some old numbers and rankings just to put things into perspective.

     

    In 2007 the year ended with AWE, OOTP and SM3 as ranked 5th, 6th, and 10th all time, which was quite the impressive feat. Then 2010 did the same thing with TS3, AIW and DH1 being ranked 5th, 6th and 10th.

     

    2011 came by and we get DH2, DOTM and OST ending the year ranked 3rd, 4th, and 8th, which I thought would probably be the best a single year could do. 2012 wasn't a disappointment though, with Avengers, Skyfall and TDKR reaching 3rd, 7th, and 8th all time.

     

    Then came 2015. Right now, JW, F7 and AAOU are sitting comfortably at rank 3, 5, and 6, with Minions about to enter the Top 10. Then Spectre has a chance (I don't personally think it will, but there is a chance) of toppling Minions and then in December, The Force Awakens will almost certainly enter the top 10, meaning by the end of the year, 5 of the 11 highest grossing movies, and possibly 6 of the Top 12 will be 2015 movies. 2015 has just been far too much fun to follow as a fan of the box office, and it will be very hard for following years to top what this year has been able to accomplish.

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  3. While this will easily outgross the prequels and most other movies this year OS, I think some of these predictions are getting out of hand. Keep in mind that the main driving forces of most of these new mega grossers are China and the new markets, who don't particularly care for the old cast, so while that's a large selling point DOM, it's almost a non factor OS. I think some markets will overperform, but I think in most markets, it'll simply gross reasonably well.

    My prediction for the longest time has been 750 OS, and I'm gonna stick with that. Add in 550 DOM for a total of 1.3B WW. However, I could see the gross (mostly DOM) be about 100M higher, so it might be a close battle between this and AOU WW.

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  4. 1. Captain America: Civil War, 475/925/1400

    2. Finding Dory, 425/900/1325

    3. Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice, 450/750/1200

    4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, 275/750/1025

    5. Rogue One, 350/550/900

    6. X-Men: Apocalypse, 250/600/850

    7. Independence Day: Resurgence, 240/550/790

    8. Moana, 275/450/725

    9. Doctor Strange, 240/470/710

    10. The Secret Life of Pets, 220/400/620

    11. Ghostbusters, 270/330/600

    12. Suicide Squad, 230/350/580

    13. Star Trek Beyond, 250/300/550

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  5. Before the Chinese release was announced, I saw predictions of 400m+ for KFP3, with some predictions going as high as 600. But then someone (probably Olive?) brought attention to the fact that local movies to be released during CNY will devour most of KFP3's screen count, and it seems expectations have been tempered quite a bit. Because of that, I'll go "conservative" and say $300m, until I can understand the situation better.

  6. As we go further and further into the decade, China's grosses are taking up an increasingly large percentage of movies' OS grosses. As far as I know however, it was not until Transformers: Age of Extinction and now Furious 7 broke numerous records in China and exceeded the DOM grosses that the debate to separate China really heated up. Within the next few years, China will have exceeded DOM to be the world's largest movie-going market. Should Box Office sites separate China's grosses from the rest of the Overseas Grosses?

     

    For now, this topic is only in its first edition. As time goes by, I will compile a list of movie's grosses with and without China, as well as possibly edit the post to contain reasons for or against the proposed split.

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  7. I think he meant over the course of a weekend. Obviously $1.091B and $1.098B are basically the same thing, but they were reporting $52.8M for the international weekend. If the true number is around $46M ($7M lower), they overpredicted by about 15%.

     

    I don't know how typical that margin of error is for an overseas gross (especially in week 5), but would be like Disney estimating Age of Ultron's opening at $220M and then getting the $191M actual the next day. People would flip out.

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