Ent
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Posts posted by Ent
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Tuesday, May 5 is Children's Day, a national holiday. That means both Monday and Tuesday numbers will be inflated.
http://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/south-korea/
These are truly nauseating numbers.
It will make up for last monday and tuesday lackluster numbers...
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Yeah the admissions would increase but the effect would be heavily dimNished due to weak exchange rates. And there is no way this will have a multiplier close to Avengers. Its multiplier may be better than FF7's but still no way its going to get higher than 3. Anyways I had predicted 75m (which was very optimistic) for this in mexico prior to its release and right now that seems to be the roof for this and there's almost 0 chance of this passing that unless the Mexican audience is just stunned by this. Even 70m would be beating the previous highest grossing record by 14.75 % in Dollars and even more in local currency. So lower your expectations if you don't wanna be disappointed and just enjoy the fact that its outgrossing TA1 like Fullbuster.
Here is the thing though : there isnt a weak exchange rate between the peso and the dollar.
Slightly weak exchange rate : yes but much weaker that it completely erase or negate both increase in ticket price and admission ? Absolutely NOT ! Not since the mexican currency has been tied to the dollar to limit those exchange rate fluctuations.
Mexico is the south american market with the lowest exchange rate fluctuation compared to the dollar. That's why, from the get go, it was the one south american market where expections of an increase were much more projected compared to Brasil and its money devaluation.
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I can't do anything about what you 'see'. As for me, here's what I 'see' - FF7 broke the OW record with 21.5m and its looking very difficult for it to reach even 55m total as of now. With the same multiplier AOU would reach around 62m, almost exactly what TA1 made. Now i don't see why it will have a much better multiplier than FF7 when its presales, hype and sequel-status all point out to its fronloadedness. As such even 70m in itself seems a little too much for it. Thus even my 60-70m range is actually a lttle high and optimistic. It isn't too bad though, even 63m would mean highest grossing movie in Mexico even after much worse exchange rates than the previous record holder (Avengers 1 with 61.7m).
Isn't FF7 in the same situation ?
A beloved sequel, featuring Paul Walker role in his fetish role for thevery last time ?
Quite frankly the hype for both sequels to me were on par for different reasons. It's pretty obvious as to how much FF7 exploded from FF6 to FF7 from opening weekends to legs. The demand was just suddenly bigger all around.
So to me nothing suggests at this stage that AOU has somewhat asorbed the bulk of demand on its huge opening weekend because of hype and that the demand hasn't increased from TA instead.
Besides, comparing it to TA legs (3.55 multiplier), which is a more suitable comparison would put it at $90.5M with the same TA legs.
So $80M is a good guess between what a movie has done and what a 50% increase of its sequel opening weekend could reach with a lesser multiplier.
Granted inflation, putting it at the same amount as TA or a little higher would suggest that the demand hasn't inreased in the second most popular south american market for that franchise, when most of them especially Brasil show that if not for the overall number the admission one has increased from TA's.
So why would Brasil demand/admission number increase and not Mexico ?
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Funny, and yet sad, to think that there are good chances of this grossing less DOM than even the lowest prediction for DOM here. Really disappointing. I am still optimistic for OS though. Anything between 1 to 1.1B OS is still very possible.
TA hit $62M after a $17.5M opening in 2012.
So i don't see why a 50% opening weekend increase putting AOU at $25.5M could not put it at $80M finished run, at the very least.
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According to johnny it will have less screens making it difficult to make 250m in the first 10-12days. FF7 did in 8 w sunday opener. Itll need to to do that to clear 300 due to screen loss the following weekends
I think regardless of the lesser number of screens, it has its first two weekends with basicly no competition, which to me makes it a contender for the $300M at the end of its run.
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So far, Mexico, South Korea and the UK can all potentially hit $80+ M each, right ?
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Can it hit $100M at the end of its run ?
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BoxOffice @BoxOffice · 15s15 seconds ago
AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON earned an estimated $84.46M on opening day Friday. #Avengers #AgeOfUltron -
BoxOffice @BoxOffice · 1m1 minute ago
THE AGE OF ADALINE earned an estimated $2.21M on Friday. Domestic total is now $19.4M. #TheAgeOfAdaline -
Is that $85M the official OD number ?
If not, when can we expect the official OD number to drop ?
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Gitesh Pandya @giteshpandya · 4m4 minutes ago
Disney just now stating it expects #AvengersAgeOfUltron to top $200M this wknd. Says record is "in sight." #Avengers -
When are we gonna get some numbers ?
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I'm thinking 25 mil previews.
I am thinking $35M
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Seems its holding up in SK so the doom and gloom was the pessimists.
It was always too premature to panic one way or another.
You need at the very least two weekends of collecting data to track any kind of firm tendencies
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There are no guarantees it will have a 2.5 multiplier. IM3 opened on the same weekend and had a 2.35 multiplier. THAT is the floor multiplier to me.
True, NOTHING is guaranteed.
But let see, if it opens at $220M then lowballing all the rest. It can add $70M on the next weekdays and $85M on the second weekend putting it at $375M on May the 10th.
It will then have exactly three whole weeks, Memorial weekend included to add another $125M or at least approach it and reach $500M.
So to me reaching $500M while entering June or even hitting it in the first week of June, make it nearly impossible to not add another $50M during the rest of its run.
To me either it collapses from the get go during the first half of May or it continue doing decent job to reach that number.
After all if TA had a 3X multiplier, its sequel can very much have a 2.5 one, which is much lower than the first movie anyway.
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Great analysis but you lost me when you said 550m was the floor domestically.
If it open around $220M, i just don't see it missing it.
TA reached and passed $500M in 23 days, three weeks and one day.
It opened on May the 4th, 3 days earlier than AOU and before entering June where it added another $100M during that second month.
Again, if it open around $220M, 3 days before TA did in May 2012, and with Memorial Day, i dont see it entering june with less than $500M (at least north of it).
That would mean reaching $500M a week after TA did (perfectly doable with that type of opening and being a sequel, hence frontloaded) and then, doing half the job TA did in June for the rest of its whole run, during the next three months.
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How much can it hit at the end of this weekend ?
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In 2012, TA without China made $800M.
I expect a rise between $50M and $75M from those markets for AOU, taking into account exchange rate, inflation and market expansions. Plus Marvel sequels tend to increase as a whole on the foreign front even without China. I don't see AOU being the first one to stay flat.
TA made around $90M in China three years ago, i expect a rise between $150M and $200M from that market for AOU.
I expect it to at least double IM3's $122M, two years after it, regardless of competition and bad release date.
So ultimately i expect a foreign increase of $200 to $275M on the foreign front from the $895M of TA....so roughly ending betwen $1.1B and 1.15B international revennues.
If domestically, it open north of $220M, i don't see it missing $550M.
So to me the floor is $550M domesticaly and $1.1B foreign Wise, meaning, $1.65B ww.
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So if TA made $30mil on it's first Monday OS and this made $18mil that is not good right?
They didn't open in the same number of markets.
I think a good comparison is markets vs same markets
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1 billion OS will happen, but beating Fast 7 OS and maybe even WW is in jeopardy, who would of thought.
Not singe chance.
Plus i still tink AOU will end up outgrossing FF7 foreign Wise.
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I hate dubbed films, I realy do. They take away so much from the movie, even if it are talented acters of your own county you still miss a lof of fun jokes, well placed moment because they dubbed it. That why i am happy Belgium doesn't realy dub that much.
You and me both.
But Belgium made a lot of dubbed versions for Walloons. In Flanders and in Brussels, you have access to original versions.
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If I know back row Imax tickets for AOU are going to be popular. I buy 10 of them for 12 dollars each and then sell them outside cinemas (in the past) or on online auction sites (nowadays) for maybe $20 or even more.
It happens a lot in Korea, especially for internation artists doing 1 concert in Seoul on a world tour, or trian tickets during major holidays.
Ah, i see what you mean !
Thanks for the explanation Chasmi !
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I read that there are released warnings against scalping tickets for AOU. I think this also happened with Interstellar. Is this common in SK with blockbusters?
What does "scalping tickets" means ?
Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by Ent
12 % is a weak exchange rate in terms of financial impact. Three year of inflation and ticket price increase is likely to nullify and even outprice the drop of the currency value. It's not a 40%+ drop like Brasil that wouldn't be compensate by inflation.
With such a small drop and three years of inflation, any demand increase should have an impact o the revenue, especally when it's about the second most popular country of the latine american region for this franchise.
Basicly if Brasil show that the demand has increased through admission numbers, Mexico is liKely to experience the same and have a higher admission numbers for AOU compared to TA.
And since the impact of the weaker exchange rate in that country is much lower and certainly lower than 3 years of inflation and ticket price rise, the drop of currency value can't impact negatively the increase of the demand...revenue should increase higher than your projected numbers.