BadAtGender

"People" is kinda vague... I mean, you could mean that weneedtotalkaboutkevin will like the number, which means many other people will hate it.

Watch it pull a 180% increase and end up just barely below 175.

If it can have a Sunday drop of about 15%, it'll mean that all DCEU films managed at least $30m for each of their opening weekend days.

Well, it didn't get the 100% Saturday bump that was needed for my club to have a chance, so I think 175m is now dead. Sorry, guys, WW is a failure.

Not sure what the first superhero movie I saw in theaters was. I don't think it was Batman. And it might not have been Batman Returns, either, since I didn't really go to see movies by myself before 1994. That might mean it was Batman Forever, which is kinda horrifying to consider. I know I saw the original Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, but that's not quite superhero. Oh, wait... I saw Howard the Duck in the theater.

Dressed like a 'stache. I dig it.

It's facing a bit of a larger drop than recent superhero summer starters do for the post-Memorial Day frame, but not egregiously so. Instead of falling ~45%, it's going to be ~55%. It's not as if it's suddenly facing a 60-70% drop because of the competition.

That's a much better hold for Baywatch than I expected. Also, nearly 39m for Friday is pretty dang great!

Finally a woman gets to direct the sequel to her own blockbuster.

I forgot Alien Covenant was released on the Thursday it had its previews.

I dunno. It really depends on a lot of things that can affect how strong the legs are going to be. Still, anything that's a blockbuster with a Friday opening and manages a 3x is pretty damn great. 2.5x is good. Not great, but not bad, either.

Do you mean the OW to DOM ratio? Looking down the list for anything that grossed under 40% of the total in its OW and earned at least $100m DOM total: The Avengers The Dark Knight The Dark Knight Rises Spider-Man Spider-Man 2 (non-Friday release) Deadpool Guardians of the Galaxy Iron Man The Amazing Spider-Man (non-Friday release) The Incredibles Captain America: The Winter Soldier Batman X-Men: Days of Future Past Doctor Strange Hancock Logan Big Hero 6 X2: X-Men United Batman Begins (non-Friday release) Superman Returns (non-Friday release) Batman Forever Thor Captain America: The First Avenger Batman Returns X-Men Fantastic Four Megamind X-Men: First Class Superman Ghost Rider Superman II Batman and Robin Daredevil

rth is generally the most reliable source you can get for early numbers. He has magical access to the data that flows in. Gitesh, as well as any of the trades (Deadline, Variety, etc) are just passing along the information they get from the studios, I believe. This isn't to say that such information is bad, but rth has access to it earlier in the chain and can actually see how things are trending and such.

It's possible Spider-Man might have gotten a good response, but the Cinerama only plays trailers for films it's definitely going to get, and at this point it's Wonder Woman, then Baby Driver, then Dunkirk. They sometimes add late in the game, but it seems to usually only happen if something else is disappointing, they don't have any special presentations scheduled, and they don't need to guarantee it for two weeks. Since HC is opening a week after Baby Driver, and Dunkirk is two weeks later, I'd say the only chance is if Baby Driver really disappoints for them and Spidey looks like it'll have a good second week that they can get without requiring more. IIRC, that's what happened with Fast & Furious 6. They had STID, but it didn't seem to be doing enough, so they got FF6 for one week before switching to Man of Steel.

Some notable things that got cheers at my showing: WW's first appearance in costume. All the big action beats. And most of the minor ones. The trailer for Dunkirk. The trailer for BladeRunner 2049 The trailer for Justice League Anecdotally, not only were there cheers for JL, but several of the women in the audience vocally praised Jason Momoa. And maybe some men, too.

I'm not giving up on my club just yet. If WW follows Maleficent, it'll get... $180m.

If the audience in my showing is any example, this should have great word of mouth. It's been a long time since an audience was this engaged. Lots of laughs, applause, and cheers.

Anecdotal, but there seem to be a lot of women at this Wonder Woman showing. It's also very full, for a showing that starts after 10:30

Could be. Don't care.

1. What will Guardians' total be at the end of the game? 360m 2. What will Baywatch's total be by the end of the game? 40m 3. What will 47 Meters Down's 3 day OW be? 5m 4. What will Wonder Woman's Second weekend percentage drop be? 30% 5. What will be the difference in gross between Alien Covenant and Power Rangers by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? 5m 6. What will transformers' multiplier be from it's opening Wednesday (So total gross by end of game divided by Wednesday gross)? 5x 7. What will Despicable Me 3's 12 day total be (The end of its second Sunday)? 160m 8. How many days will Spiderman make more than $1M? 24 9. What will Pirates 4th weekend gross be? 3m 10. How close will Spiderman, Wonder Woman, Apes and The Mummy's combined midnight preview totals come to $100M? 30m Here is the scoring: Be lower than the final total - 500 points Be within 50% of the final total - 1000 points Be within 40% of the final total - 3000 points Be within 30% of the final total - 5000 points Be within 25% of the final total - 7000 points Be within 20% of the final total - 10000 points Be within 15% of the final total - 16000 points Be within 10% of the final total - 24000 points Be within 7.5% of the final total - 32000 points Be within 5% of the final total - 40000 points Be within 2.5% of the final total - 50000 points Be over the final total by even $1 and you lose 8000 points for that question. If you score a positive score in all 10 questions, your score is doubled. If you score a positive score in 8 or 9 out of 10 questions, your score is increased by 50%. If you score a positive score in 6 or 7 out of 10 questions, your score is increased by 25%. Your score will also be rounded up to the nearest 1000 points for ease of scoring. So technically you can score 1,000,000 points from this question, but it does require you to be god and our current rate of return for predictions suggests that I Mil is not in danger Deadline is Thursday June 1st at 11:59pm There is no abstaining, just put a dollar for everything if you must

Part A: 1. Will Wonder Woman Open to more than $120M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Captain underpants Open to more than $35M? 2000 No 3. Will Will Captain Underpants open to more than Wonder Woman's Sunday? 3000 No 4. Will the two main openers combine to more than $150M? 4000 Yes 5. Will 3 Idiotas open to more than $1M? 5000 No 6. Will Pirates drop more than 60% 1000 Yes 7. Will Baywatch drop more than 65% 2000 Yes 8. Will Alien drop more than 70%? 3000 Yes 9. Will Snatched have a lower percentage drop than King Arthur? 4000 Yes 10. Will guardians cross $350M by the end of Saturday? 5000 Yes 11. Will the Smurfs stay above Get Out? 1000 Yes 12. Will God of War have a PTA above $2,500? 2000 Yes 13. Will Beauty and the Beast have a PTA above $1,100? 3000 No 14. Will Baywatch's domestic total overtake Snatched's Domestic Total by the end of the weekend? 4000 No 15. Will a successful OW for Wonder Woman lead to the end of civilization as we know it on the streets of Sweden? 5000 Not Sweden, but perhaps in... actually where is the highest concentration of MRAs in the world? Because that place may spontaneously combust. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Wonder Woman make for its 3 day OW? 136.23m 2. What will be the difference between Wonder Woman and Captain Underpants' Saturday grosses? 33.3m 3. What will King Arthur's PTA be this weekend? $918 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales 6. Everything, Everything 8. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul 12. The Boss Baby 15. Paris Can Wait 17. How to be a Latin Lover Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Week 5: Yes.

I think WB is being deliberately conservative in their OW expectations. They'd prefer to be wrong on the low side than wrong on the high. It sets up the narrative that it's a breakout rather than failing to meet expectations. I think people may be severely underestimating how the legs may go. To draw a point of comparison: Maleficent opened in the same post-Memorial Day weekend in 2014. It managed nearly a 3.5 multiplier from the 69m OW. And it was a film that was divisive, with middling critical response (50% RT, 5.7 average), but still had some cachet as a "feminist film". Wonder Woman doesn't have the negative critical baggage and won't be facing nearly as direct competition in the following weekend. It could probably hold on fairly strongly until Spider-Man. That isn't to say it'll do 3.5x (unless WB's expectations are accurate, in which case it'll probably do at least that), but it could certainly edge close to a 3x.

Well... points for consistency, I suppose.

Even if the DOM performance is slightly disappointing, this is a phenomenally successful film no matter how you slice it. It's also pretty amazing how strong it is overseas. Only two other films have earned $500m or more worldwide and gotten at least 80% of their gross OS. One is The Mermaid. The other is Ice Age: Continental Drift. Even if you drop the bar to $400m, you only add The Intouchables, Ice Age: Collision Course, and Warcraft.