DAJK
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Posts posted by DAJK
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27 minutes ago, AniNate said:
Letterboxd rating surprisingly low for what should be a feel good crowdpleaser blockbuster. Below Civil War's at the moment
Civil War is a A24 movie, it is automatically going to be inflated on Letterboxd.
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Yea I don’t know anymore, walkups for Fall Guy are getting better and better as the evening progresses. Maybe it’s a Canada/BC thing (Ryan Gosling being Canadian?) but my comps would say 3M true Thursday is possible. Hmm.
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I’ll admit walkups are doing pretty well tonight for Fall Guy. Not enough to turn it into a huge breakout, but definitely far from the doom and gloom of yesterday.
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Fall Guy did like half of Civil War in ticket sales for EA at comparable theaters in my area.
Lowering my prediction to 20-22M.
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Not sure if I mentioned this in another thread already, but the music in the second half of the trailer sounds very Titanic-esque. Or at the very least, James Horner-esque. Anyone know where that music is from?
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Watching How To Lose A Guy In 10 Days for the first time. God I want the rom-com to come back, this is good stuff.
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Hate to say it but I agree. Granted, it would be kind of exciting to try this new experiment where a sequel comes out theatrically only a few weeks after its predecessor. But if this really is great, maybe letting it find its audience, both in theaters and streaming, before the second one comes out would be a good idea.
That being said, August is kind of empty I guess, and December is pretty full. Even though literally nobody cares about Kraven lol.
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I actually am starting to think that 2012's 21 Jump Street (unadjusted) might be a good comparison for Fall Guy at the box office. Pair of charming leads, 80s TV series, good reviews, etc.
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39 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
Should have made Challengers with Holland and Chalamet instead. Would have brought the budget up to 100M but would have probably made like 400M.
Not gonna lie, the exact same movie with Holland, Zendaya, and Chalamet would have had MASSIVE social media buzz lol. You might be onto something
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Even if Fall Guy isn’t a massive theatrical hit (say, Bullet Train numbers) I have no doubt it’ll be a massive streaming hit a few months down the line.
Not an ideal situation for someone like me who is a cheerleader for movie theaters. But as long as the studios are happy enough to take high-budget risks on non-IP (or lower-profile IP) I’m happy.
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1 hour ago, Firepower said:
I mean 20 mln would be really solid for this, but 15 mln is ok at best considering it was pushed as a commercial sexy melodrama with a super popular lead actress and tik tok generation appeal, it would actually be below The Beekeeper which is essentially The Mechanic with bees.
It’s also rated R. A lot of the tiktok crowd can’t even see it.
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Not really seeing anything too special for Challengers here in BC. Most of my comps point to 1.4-1.5M today. Not a bad number all things considered, especially since most other comps are a bit higher. I have my doubts of this reaching 20M this weekend, but if it can manage it, bravo!
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I know for a fact Ungentlemanly Warfare would have (at least slightly) over-indexed in Canada. Any British-esque movie, especially those that target an older white crowd, tend to do pretty well here compared to their domestic openings.
The reason I bring this up is, had it opened in Canada, it probably would have opened higher than Abigail. Pretty sure no one saw that one coming.
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Abigail not doing well here at all. Pretty much all of my comps point to around 800k previews. Although one outlier weirdly is telling me 1.5M+ but I’m willing to discard that one for now.
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4 minutes ago, Box Office Hit said:
Great movie. Go see it everyone!
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1 hour ago, filmlover said:
Yeah, I love both Gosling and Blunt as much as the next person, but calling them the "biggest stars on the planet" is definitely...stretching it.
I've actually seen a lot of ads for The Fall Guy in recent weeks, but whether they'll be effective in getting people to buy tickets is remains to be seen. I think expectations on this might've gotten a little carried away after the release date upgrade (which I assume wouldn't have occurred had the strike not impacted the schedule) + inflated expectations from Barbenheimer.
Honestly I would argue that Gosling right now is as big as he ever has been (or ever will be) and is very likely one of the hottest names in Hollywood at the moment.
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17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Fall Guy MTC1
Early Shows - 7520/91619 169143.92 371 shows
Previews - 7409/329914 154230.01 1581 shows
Friday - 6774/592388 133358.50 2790 shows
Again there is almost no pace. There is still time but unless the pace picks up dramatically, we are looking at a disappointment.
Honestly sometimes I can have toxic positivity when it comes to the box office ("oh it'll all be fine!") but seriously, if this movie disappoints in a big way I'm going to go on a big "original movies are dead" rant.
Yes, I know this isn't technically "original" but for all intents and purposes, for 99% of the GA it is. Great reviews, the biggest stars on the planet, a great hook/concept and fun trailers.
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Really upset I won’t get to see this. Release it, Amazon!
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3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
assuming he was serious, why did jatinder's prediction that gvk could come close to dunc 2 domestically and was very likely to beat it ww not come to pass?
Maybe I misread, but I assumed he was talking about OW. That it was going to come close to Dune's 82M and its WW opening (180M ish?).
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38 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:
Garfield is the real wild card. Right now I’m feeling it’ll be like the Angry Birds movie back in 2016 where it gets overshadowed by the way bigger animated movie competition later that summer, but still gets a respectable 125+. But it could also do Wonka numbers and it wouldn’t surprise me.
I love that I'm not the only one getting Angry Birds vibes from Garfield.
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Anecdotal, but Civil War walkups tonight are not as strong as they were yesterday in BC. Weather is beautiful so maybe it’s just a one-off, but I should probably temper any expectations.
If I had to guess, 8.5-9 Friday including previews? But that’s a very very rough guess. I’ll know a bit more in a few hours.
Anyways, Civil War time
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Agree with @keysersoze123 here. Every single one of my comps is pointing to 3M+ today. Wouldn’t be surprised if Thursday is reported at 3.5.
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8 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:
Crisis averted y'all. Thanks for showing support to Garland. 🙏
Not so fast
Here’s what my crystal ball predicts:
Conventional tracking had this in mid-to-high teens. BOT tracking said low-20’s was possible. Thursday numbers come in, pretty good. Early Friday numbers come in. Could 30M be possible? Heck, 35? Expectations go up and up.
The film is a bit frontloaded. Weekend estimate comes in at 31M. Actual comes in at 29.91M. Cue @CJohn proclaiming that movie theaters are dead, and the usual doom-and-gloom back-and-forth.
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Not gonna lie I am getting a little worried about this. But as a resident of British Columbia, I cannot speak negative of anything Ryan Reynolds lest I be banned from my homeland.
Weekend Numbers | Thu Previews | 3.15M THE FALL GUY | 0.715M TAROT
in Box Office Discussion
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Florence Pugh would disagree with that.
And if she can keep up the momentum, Sydney Sweeney as well. She’s been everywhere pop culture wise, all she needs is to appear in some good, hit movies.
Hell, if Twisters is big this summer, and Hitman catches on, I’ll add Glenn Powell to that list.
And are we forgetting Timothee Chalamet, from the biggest movie of the year? And excuse me but Zendaya was also in that AND just opened a freaking tennis movie from a not-super-general-audience-friendly director to 15M.
Should I continue?