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About keysersoze123

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    Summer Tentpole

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  1. I am find it difficult to see it go that high. but @Menor has been on the point and so better to believe him. it needs to hit at least 50K by sunday. Friday/Saturday will not have the pace movies normally have in final week. So that is 20K opening day tickets over next 4 days and change. Overall ticket sales have to hit 40K for that to happen. So it needs at least 20K over next 2 days while maintaining ok pace on fri/sat for that to happen. Tough but not impossible. its definitely accelerating as expecting from yesterday.
  2. Today its discount tuesday and so TS4 will pull in huge numbers. But tomorrow you should see PS going down 30% for TS4 and so Spidey has to pick up the slack. Especially if reviews are out tomorrow.
  3. great point. Last week it was barely selling anything for the weekend. But back then there were very few showtimes listed for Endgame weekend. I looked at NY, SF and LA and most theaters have 2 or 3 shows listed except Pacific Lakewood center(near LA) where endgame has 8 shows listed for friday. There is definitely going to be a boost on friday but its going to be short-lived one. Plus i don’t see any PLF shows for Endgame.
  4. Spidey OW PS(PS over past 3 hours) 4527 2019-07-01 MON Spider-Man Far From Home (59) 29994 2019-07-02 TUE Spider-Man Far From Home (469) 6588 2019-07-03 WED Spider-Man Far From Home (129) 4222 2019-07-04 THU Spider-Man Far From Home (61) 4302 2019-07-05 FRI Spider-Man Far From Home (70) 4683 2019-07-06 SAT Spider-Man Far From Home (37) 1990 2019-07-07 SUN Spider-Man Far From Home (24) Quick thoughts as I am keeping an eye on Spidey PS. The run rate is around 300 per hour which is over 7K per day(though it will slow down at night and so its more like 6K). Its ahead of Cap Marvel on similar days( T-7th) as that was a friday for Marvel. So today and tomorrow it should have lot stronger PS. Starting day after CM went on a tear. Spidey will slow down on fri/sat which is T-3/4. Then the PS picks up on sunday. OD is slightly more than half the ticket sales( 469/894 looking at opening week for 3 hours). it needs to hit 10K per day next 2 days to make up for slow down on fri/sat. Strong reviews should help drive PS.
  5. just under 20m(19.91) at 2PM. Is this a strong start. Looking like finishing around 24m today. Looks normal day around 30-35% increase. Headed towards 55m finish at this rate. 60m would be great and still in play with a strong last day.
  6. So Avengers did not get much boost from Toy Story. Aladdin got all the benefits from double screenings. So Lion King should help Toy Story more than other disney movies as well. for Avengers the theater count should tell us how aggressive Disney is with this expansion. Its definitely earlier that what I expected(August) to get PLF screenings. So far there are hardly any listings for this weekend shows.
  7. @salvador-232 can TS4 beat the Minions in admissions in Argentina. That was a Huge monster.
  8. I think OW has shown great trends. Great Saturday and Sunday and looking at Pulse hour numbers, its going to have a HUGE Monday as well. I think target is TS3 domestic and that looks probable to me.
  9. Just over a week for Spidey midnights to open, trend I am seeing is 1. Midnights shows are still limited. Almost most theaters just have one show while big Plex like AMC Empire 25 has multiple 2d shows listed. Unless there is huge surge in last couple of days its looking like limited preview of around 3m. 2. Overall Pulse PS is still heaving skewed around OD. but at least today the ration of OD to rest of the week PS is around 40% as opposed to 60% few days back. @Menor is thinking of OD hitting 120K tickets sold on Pulse( 27456 at 1PM PST). Seems extremely ambitious with Toy Story and Lion King also taking significant traffic. CM Pulse to OD BO was quite a bit less than BP or Ant-man 2. Spidey should do better than CM but probably closer to BP than Ant-man. So for 50m OD it will need close to 100-105K PS. I am feeling more like 40m OD(without midnights) with 80-85K Pulse sales. This is because as we get close to release, OD PS will be a smaller part of overall PS. There is no incentive to rush out on OD tuesday when we have a long week ahead. I will still stick with 170m till Sunday and around double that Domestic. With a robust OS run, it still has 1B WW in play though if China falls short of 200m we could see it miss the landmark though its in prime position to be highest Spiderman movie WW of all time. Lion King PS started like how most expected. I am hopeful on 200m OW but would like to see the trend for few days before feeling comfortable. Toy Story had a great start but slowed down well below I2 and was trending around 2/3 I2 OW for a while(almost where it ended up). I am not sure what is the best comparison for it. Beast was a while ago but this has to hit PS well ahead of beast to keep 200m+ OW in play.
  10. OK. That would be a target to watch. So last 2 days around 60K of presales? So will need to hit 60K by this sunday.
  11. I would look at full hour data 019-06-24 11:00:00 1604 Toy Story 4 2019-06-24 11:00:00 666 The Lion King (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 200 The Secret Life of Pets 2 2019-06-24 11:00:00 189 Aladdin (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 147 Spider-Man Far From Home (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 99 Toy Story 4 3D 2019-06-24 11:00:00 86 Men in Black International 2019-06-24 11:00:00 86 The Lion King 3D (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 85 Rocketman 2019-06-24 11:00:00 82 Childs Play (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 80 Annabelle Comes Home 2019-06-24 11:00:00 65 Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 63 The Lion King The IMAX 2D Experience (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 51 Toy Story 4 The IMAX 2D Experience 2019-06-24 11:00:00 50 Dark Phoenix 2019-06-24 11:00:00 49 John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum 2019-06-24 11:00:00 48 Avengers Endgame (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 41 The Lion King An IMAX 3D Experience (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 33 Shaft (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 31 Late Night (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 29 Anna (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 21 Yesterday (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 15 Spider-Man Far From Home 3D (2019) 2019-06-24 11:00:00 15 Spider-Man Far From Home The IMAX 2D Experience (2019) Spidey sold 177 tickets and so definitely accelerating compared to yesterday. But it needs to accelerate even more as Mon-thu sales tend to be strongest. With a tuesday release, its sales will be interesting to track as we hit weekend few days before release.
  12. You are right(as usual). I mixed Thu and Friday sales. ts number T-7 2d: 22993 3d -2073 i 3d - 18 i 2d - 4681 Total 29765 ( with 2956 for today). So as you said it will overtake it today. Spidey is looking at 2000-2500 for the day. Next 2 days it should do better as it was fri/sat. Sunday on wards CM went on a tear. With a tuesday opening I wonder how Spidey sales would be on fri/sat. I will hold any judgement for another day or 2. But for now 80K OD is the target?
  13. Trending towards 50-55m PS. I would say 150-170m OD and 500-550m OW. Probably needs to trend upwards to 200m OD to keep 1.5B in play. Otherwise its looking more in 1-1.2B yuan range.
  14. isn't that too small a number to make a big difference. Plus will the boost be really short lived for most passionate fanbase? Anyway Korea and Brazil would be two of the interesting markets to track next weekend. Let us see the boost. I definitely believe Endgame will be boosted over the Avatar.
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