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Jack

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    Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    This says Rth is wrong (in who do we trust?) and seems dubious of any Father's Day bump for JW.

    Deadline kept understating JW's OW (not out of any noticeable animosity or pessimism, though) and I'm hoping they did so here, too.

    I suspect deadline got numbers from Studio estimates. And Studios got numbers from rth. That's why rth is more accurate while Studios will try to fudge or play safe by going with the higher or lower end of the range. (so far Universal has been playing safe with JW)

    Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Jack

    Too bad IO won't come to my country until Aug 12.

    Honestly, I think the trailer is quite boring and didn't impress me at all. But the whole concept of the movie is extremely interesting. I definitely go to see it unless WOM turns out to be bad. I have high expectation for this movie since its concept is about minds which hold all philosophies in human life. It has to be good enough to at least make a significant impact on my perspective towards life.

    Jurassic World Weekend Thread | Official Est. 204.6M | 208.8M - Actuals

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    What a classic case of waking a sleeping giant of a franchise. Though Jurassic Park doesn't have the outright loonie fandom of the Star Wars, Potter, LOTR, it was such a beloved film by such a wide demographic that it seems Jurassic World ended up being a silent assasin so to speak. A massive fan base but not as vocal which hid much of the potential of the OW to many of us. It won't be underestimated again.

    I think JP franchise doesn't have any permanent standout characters like SW, HP, or, LOTR (unless you count the T-rex and raptors). Hence the popularity dropped quickly in JP2 and JP3. It's like you have to get to know the new characters again and you're not likely to love them as much as the prequel. That's not the case now with JW, Pratt will be the lead actor for all next sequels. And I hope this will help JW2, JW3 do much better than JP2/3.

    Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Far from random. Random would 50m-500m. They were in the ballpark any one of them could have hit. no one said over FF7 because of its breakout and knowing there was mixed wom in other markets and 3d only. Using the info you mentioned plus knowledge of the growth of the market applied to the sequel gets us close.

    Waiting for people to see it gives us early numbers and that point forward it becomes a projection.

    I don't think the overall prediction was close at all. Only the very low bottoms were close. The average prediction WW of 1.6B to 1.4B actual, 200M+ difference. The whole range of those predictions doesn't even cover the actual. It doesn't literally mean "random". But it's far from being accurate.

    What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Jack

    There is a lot of hype that China will pass domestic in the near future. I disagree, as I have posted a few times. To stop sounding like a broken record to all those that keep stating the obvious apparent; a huge continuous trend with no end in sight, I'm looking for the blindside and the trend to break suddenly for numerous reasons. Everyone can voice their opinions here as will I.

    The poll is to see what the consensus is.

    You can also post:

    The year for China to overtake Dom.

    The year of the first $1B movie

    The Franchise, Director or Producer of the first $1B film. if its Avatar name it or it can be Cameron doing something else, "unknown DC Comic collective" like Avengers

    I will create a spreadsheet and update it monthly. All posts must be by the end of the year, 2015.

    I may start a new spread sheet every year to keep things interesting. This may take a long time to resolve, but then again, all we have is time.

    My reasons that it will be a lot longer than people think:

    Any of these can/will happen. I'm not saying all will, but one or more combined will stifle the growth in the near and/or distant future.

    Global financial/real estate crisis' happen every 7 to 10 years. Its been 6 years since the meltdown. Another will be coming soon and will effect China. China has recovered well from the last two, 2001 and 2009 but they are bigger than ever and as they say the harder it will fall.

    Most economies that have huge growth for 20 years hit a wall like Japan in 89

    Stories of China Ghost cities. They have already overbuilt and cant get enough people to move from the country to the city.

    Movies are novelty to most still. That will wane for many as it has in Japan and other mature markets, and 3d has globally

    Even if GDP passes the US in a few years it will be spread out over 4x as many people. Per capita GDP will still be lower than most major nations.

    More than half of the population subsist or make minimum wage. Would you pay a days wage to go see a movie? That leaves a potential movie going population of less than 500 million people with less disposable income than dom

    The Yuan is pegged to the dollar but the government has let the dollar slip a little bit over the years. The BO has to overcome future XR declines

    I agree that any of those crisis has the possibility to happen. But how did you come up with the year 2026 or 11 years from now? China can fall but it can also recover. How many years will those crisis affect BO numbers? How long till the numbers start to recover and rise again? And what kind of historical data back that up?

    I can understand people predicted 2018/19/20 because they went with the current rate with a little margin added. But 2026? Could you please give us more explanation?

    Thank you.

    What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Jack

    I think I found an interesting statistic to help give weight to arguments by pessimistic prognosticators.

    In the US there are 117 million households and the average household has an income of $51,939 per year.

    That means that each household needed to spend $88.54 on movie tickets last year.

    That amount is 0.17% of the households income.

    In china there are 772 million employed persons with an average wage of 52,388 CNY or $8,382 per year. 1

    That means for china to surpass the domestic BO ($10.36B) each employed person would need to spend $13.42 on movie tickets.

    That amount is 0.16% of the employed persons wage.

    At the US proportion (0.17%) the Chinese BO would be $11B.

    If it is assumed that this is the maximum proportion that is reasonable to expect any citizen to pay. It sets an absolute limit to the growth of the Chinese BO. When there is a limit to an exponentially growing data source, a sigmoid function is a better model than an exponential function. This would suggest that the chinese BO will start slowing down when it hits the midpoint of its maximum i.e. $5.5B.

    Therefore according to this model, the Chinese BO will start slowing down after this year. (Last year was ~$4.7B.)

    Thanks for the info. But I think you forget to take into account the increasing wage of employed persons in China. It can double the current value by 2020.
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