Jack
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Posts posted by Jack
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56 minutes ago, Nova said:
I had it at a 2.8-2.9x after its OW and thought it would hold like your typical well received SH film this weekend but I admit I was wrong about that lol
Nothing wrong about that.
What is wrong is that you showed some disrespect to a group of people who thinks differently without asking for reasons and made some kind of judgement that they are inferior.
No surprise you made someone mad at you.
You can call it a 55-60% drop, then change to 50-55% drop, then sub-50% drop, whatsover, it's fine.
I have respect for all those wrong predictions. They may have forgotten something in their calculations, maybe they are just making a quick guess, or they are just trolling, they are humans, they make mistakes, it's totally ok as long as they don't cross the line and start making a war.
And by the way, I think WW is the most human SH I've ever known, though she actually isn't one.
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38 minutes ago, eXtacy said:
I think the unusually strong hold can be mostly attributed to the fact a lot of people may have avoided Wonder Woman's first weekend after three stinkers from DC in a row. Makes you think how much it could of opened to.
So true.
I never thought a DC film would be this surprisingly good. Look at the first Sat-Sun hold. WOM was doing its job. Weekdays numbers and then strong demands on the 2nd weekends all result from those WOM.
If we knew before OW that WW is gonna be this great, I think its run would be comparable to GOTG2 (which people presumed it would be as good as the first one), more or less.
That would mean $350m is possible. And $400m is the extreme target providing some genius marketing to draw audiences from outside of SH movies fanbase.
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The curse is broken.
Sub-50% drop is safe now!!!
"SILLY, WEIRD, NOT REALISTIC, DISAPPOINTMENT"
C'mon!!!!
You were so so wrong to think thay WW will behave like those SH movies (MOS, DC, GOTG2, Logan, etc.)
This film was a surprise since DAY1, and keeps going that way.
That would mean anything will be beyond expectation and some never-before things will happen.
I was talking about sub-50% drop since last Sunday and most people thought it's silly.
Now what?
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15 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:
Would $51M confirm $300M for WW?
Deadline updated their weekend estimate to $48.5-51m.
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SUB-50% DROP here we come¡!¡!!!
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Some folks who cursed that WW making sub 50% drop is far from reality, raise their prediction a bit again.
From 55-60% drop and 2.5x ow finish, then 50-55% drop and 2.7-2.8x finish, then 52% drop, then 50m+ 2nd wk.
Now what!?
Their confidence keeps dropping each day.
One thing they were already wrong; sub 50% drop is NOT FAR from reality AT ALL. In fact, the 50% drop may be the most accurate prediction of all, not in the high 50s they were talking about in the beginning.
Imagine when Friday number comes? The curses will all be broken.
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Some folks who keep insisting WW won't do a sub 50% drop 2nd wk, or won't do a 3xOW finish, keep raising their predicting numbers. That shows some kind of a great sign.
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Good hold as expected.
Great work gradually pays off.
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The coming weekdays and next weekend's gonna be much more interesting. How well the strong WOM will bode for a sub 50% drop and keep the 3x multis alive.
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3 minutes ago, Hatebox said:
An OW of a hundred bucks would be a real problem.
Oops, corrected
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Typical exponential trend for a great-WOM movie. Numbers keep climbing up on each update.
$100m OW shouldn't be a problem at this rate.
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F**k that $7m preview prediction!!! $4m (or 36%) off.
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Like: Entertaining character of Arthur.
Don't like: Unnecessary and too complicated strategic battle plans, weak drama, and mostly dark visuals.
Everything else was just OK.
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About to see this film in the next 22 hrs. Never a fan, never known anything about it except only the name and the sword.
Hope it's not too boring.
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I think you guys are all too conservative. I'm going with $276m OW.
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Thx for making it more accurate. I just roughly did the calculation without checking the exact numbers.
Also excluding the preview numbers is just one way to lower the front-loaded effect. And also JB has very little preview numbers ($4.2m?) compared to its OW.
Any way $500m seems more possible to me now :D.
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1 hour ago, aabattery said:
Eh. It's a softer drop than The Jungle Book had on its first Monday (as @JB33 pointed out in the weekend thread), and we saw how much that went on to make. Hell, if it repeats those legs it'll end up north of 600. So this doesn't exactly knock 500 off the table.
While JB is a good comparison but I am sure BatB will be more front-loaded than JB. Let say we exclude the Thu preview numbers for a $150m OW, and with 3-3.5x multiplier, this will translate to $400-525m, averaged at $460m final.
I wish it can crack $500m though.
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2 hours ago, Eevin said:
I could totally see some crazy number like $25m+ tomorrow. We're about to witness something magical, folks.
We already witnessed a magical cinematic experience when we saw the movie.
This becomes one of the few movies I recommend everyone I know to watch it in the cinema.
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3 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:
Nope, if BnB opens at around $170m DOM, I'd say $300m is a "lock", but nothing more in terms of intervals of $100m. Remember, BvS opened in similar territory and finished at around $330m.
You can lock BnB at $400m. It will pass $300m in less than 2weeks, or even in 10 days, to say the least. The review score can only go up after its release, contrary to BvS which every trend was going down from day1.
BvS OW=166, F/S/S = 82/51/34
BnB OW=16x-17x, F/S/S = 63/62/4x
Same OW numbers but opposite trend.
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God, everything in this film is less than good. Poor jokes, scripts, story, characters. CG is ok though. Good thing is that it didn't get me bored with the fast-going story.
Won't be surprised if it flops hard.
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Comparing Kong to JW,
JW has much more varieties to draw wider range of audiences, male, female, parents, kids.
1. Animals characters: T-Rex+raptors+Mosasaurs+other dozens of dinosaur species> >> Kong+giant insects+ other ugly creatures.
2. Female acts: Bryce> > Brie (in terms of attractiveness to male GA)
Male acts: Patt> > Hildleston.
3. Scene locations: Vibrant theme parks > > mostly dark and dull skull island.
JW wins it all even before knowing the story. (And of course, JW story would be much better than Kong.)
Waiting for the premier in less than 20 hrs. Looking forwards to epic visuals as seen in KK 2005. But I have a feeling that the story in Kong:SI would be better than KK.
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Having seen this in premiere yesterday night, never a fan of Batman before, gotta admit that this Lego movie makes me want to go watching all the previous Batman films to know more about those characters in the original film especially Batman and Joker.
Overall it has good jokes and some tear-jerking moment. But i still hate the visual of lego toys anyway, thx for those great voice acts.
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OD: 72.5
OW: 132.0
DOM: 505.0
OS: 595.7
WW: 1100.7
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Jump from early estimate of 13.5m to 15.4 actual. 90+m for the 5-day weekends? If it exceeds that estimate again around 10%, 100m is in play. So excited to see how far it can go from now.
Will see it on Sat with my 2.5 yrs old nephew.
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WEEKEND THREAD | Actual: Wonder Woman 58.63M, Estimates: Mummy 32.2M, Underpants 12.3M, Pirates 10.2M, ICAN 6M
in Numbers and Data
Posted · Edited by Jack
Sorry i mistaken you with kissykins but you were there supporting. Look in the OW thread page 176.
http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24101-what-a-wonderful-weekend-ww-down-only-16-on-sunday-103m-weekend-pg-226/?page=176#comment-3037270
And I don't know or remember any weird, long user names like Alisson23, Krissykins, Subzero, fmpro, or XxYZ1234, or whatever... LOL. So don't expect me to remember those shiit.