tonytr87
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Posts posted by tonytr87
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7 hours ago, filmlover said:
It's sold a couple of seats for that Friday near me (more than I expected tbh) but otherwise, nada.
Marketing is non-existent, and the trailers are pretty mundane
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18 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:
Color Purple's embargo is also a little concerning. And considering it's been almost completely blanked from awards (notably AFI and Globes who both went for Mary Poppins Returns) reception for it might be a problem.
Yeah, never heard of the director, so my hopes haven't been high from the beginning
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22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:
Getting back to the KFP/Dune 2 debate...I'm way more bullish on Panda than Dune
I could see $80M+ OW for KFP4 as kids who grew up with those films are now adults - should play strong in terms of nostalgia
Dune will surely blow past $50M OW (I think). However, I do think it has a hard ceiling due to the genre and niche audience pool. $70M would be my ceiling.
What? KFP3 flopped, didn't it?
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1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Maybe Migration or Wish. But yeah other than those nothing else is topping $200M in Q4
Aquaman will do it.
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1 minute ago, YM! said:
On the bright side, both Trolls and Wish look like whiffs judging from reviews/reactions outside of kids.
Wish is tracking high.
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12 hours ago, Manny G said:
This looks extremely cheap and student film like. Even their every day outfits come off so costumy; you’re the sporty one, you’re the sexy one, you’re the nerdy one. Good thing is it can be that much of a disaster if it’s really that cheap.
also having Dakota Johnson as your lead and narrator is a choice.
It's soo dumb they tried to make Sydney Sweeney the nerdy one. Yea fucking right.
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Wonka getting to 150 mil will be a win. It's an old IP.
What I don't get is Hunger Games tracking at 50 mil. Maybe Gen Z doesn't read as much as millennials.
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It's Barry Jenkins. It's going to be great.
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On 11/8/2023 at 2:14 AM, Dominic Draper said:
Looks good to me. I think Wes Ball is a n under rated director and really enjoyed the first Maze Runner.
For the last films, it's funny I think Reeves made the best film (Dawn) and the worst (War).
I know I'm in the minority but The Batman felt like War for me as well. The same style and issues I had were present in both.. Overly long, poorly paced, dull and dour with uninteresting characters.
The big problem with War is there was no war.
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2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:
Probably a bigger mistake to even have television characters co-staring in the sequel to your billion dollar hit. Making the sequel to your billion dollar hit look like a Disney Plus series will never be smart. I honestly think this is the biggest blunder that Disney has made in a long time.
That Spotlight thing they're doing, where the shows under that banner aren't connected to the rest of the MCU, that should apply to all of the series. Disney Plus series should operate like the Netflix series did. They connect to one another and maybe occasionally reference what's going on in the big screen MCU, but otherwise they're their own thing.
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Probably a mistake to have a majority of the marketing centered around two characters general audiences haven't seen before. Most of the folks who flocked to phase 3 do not watch the Disney Plus series.
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On 10/15/2023 at 5:39 PM, emoviefan said:
This is what so maddening. The studios/streamers cutting their nose off to spite their face. Go back to the table and make a dam deal. That being said 25-30 million opening for 206 minute long Hard R Rated movie that targets a audience that is not exactly storming the theaters any more is no disaster. The question will be WOM and legs along with that budget.
On 10/16/2023 at 6:12 PM, mikeymichael said:For some reason, I don't see this hitting 100m total domestic. Neither the runtime nor subject matter are very pleasant. Plus the lack of promotion.
Can see this finishing somewhere in the 75-90 range. If this opens up in the low 20s, I'll know I was onto something...
The Revenant says hi.
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On 10/15/2023 at 3:53 PM, keysersoze123 said:
I am not seeing that high either. Thinking in 25-30m range for now. I agree with the reasons stated. It would have definitely helped had Leo was up and around at this point promoting the movie big time. This is going to impact everything. Next up are Marvels and Hunger Games. Only Freddys is ok I think.
Leo never does the talk show circuit, so I'm not sure what good random junkets did for his previous films.
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14 hours ago, TheDude391 said:
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-the-marvels/
Estimates rose 11% from last time.
OW: $33-42
DOM: $110-156
That Leo power.
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3 hours ago, Shawn said:
I don't know if I'd agree $60m is low.
That said, the range doesn't include the upper-upper-most band of what I think could happen... but I also think we have to be careful setting expectations too high, too soon. There are a lot of young FNAF fans (pre-teens and teens are the primary fan base), which means a lot of tickets at "bargain" prices compared to a lot of the PG-13 and R films FNAF is being compared to.
My other headache is that exhibitors didn't start adding PLF until very recently (that alone should help pump up the ATP), and that -- like you alluded to -- the hybrid release raises concerns for walk-ups for a movie that's already potentially very fan-driven. That's especially if those late embargo reviews go the way of something negative like Exorcist: Believer instead of a more favorable Blumhouse audience movie (which I think is a bit of a factor in strong pre-sales as Blum is also a brand unto himself/itself).
I'm just never a fan of an embargo going up hours before start time for a movie that doesn't need to worry about spoilers and is also going to be available to watch at home for (basically) free. That seems like a red flag, but there's also a possibility this kind of movie is review proof on Halloween weekend.
TL;DR -- Internally, I'm with you and everyone thinking it's possible this could blow up even more... but looking at the average of all models, I think the current range is in a good spot based on all variables.
The good news is Universal isn't advertising that Peacock release at all. I was just watching something on the app and an ad for the movie came up. No mention at all that it was going to be on Peacock. Just "in theaters (insert date)"
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https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-killers-of-the-flower-moon/
Long-range tracking for this is impressive. Those trailers in front of Oppenheimer might do wonders. Plus, the power of Leo.
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I really liked the first movie, but this $220 mil movie looks like it cost $80. Meanwhile, the $80 mil budgeted Creator looks like it cost $220 mil.
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7 hours ago, Mulder said:
Maybe if FNAF wasn't going to Peacock I'd buy into the breakout hype, but that Peacock day and date release is going to kneecap it. The only people who are going to go out to see it in theaters will be the dedicated diehards. I'm thinking 30-40 for it personally.
I still can't comprehend that decision. Could've earned 40 mil OW with full theatrical.
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I have a hard time believing Exorcist won't hit 30 mil. I'm predicting 40m+ and am increasingly uncertain of BoxOfficePro's long-range reliability.
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Never loved any of Taika's movies, but I was rooting for this since I'm looking forward to Fassy's big comeback year. At least we have The Killer.
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16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
And detractors as well. Where Oppenheimer has it going is its critically raved, Huge box office, and is about a critical point in history. Plus Scorsese has been awarded multiple times. Still its a formidable competitor which I expect to do well box office as well(though wont do anywhere near Oppenheimer)
Scorsese has one Oscar.
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The 100 min runtime is whatever. The trailers are what are dooming this. What's worse is it looks like there was no communication between the Secret Invasion team and The Marvels team. Fury sounds like a different person
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6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
I don’t think it’s hitting 400 DOM, but I think Wonka is if King brings his Paddington quality A game. Feel the same about that movie as a huge breakout as I did about Mario and Barbie
Say what? Even with big presales you know legs are going to be shit. I see Eras topping out at 200 mil DOM max.
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1 hour ago, vale9001 said:
i think 2023 will be a more significative year for super hero movies.
Until last year they still were the biggest movies of the year so even if with less money than pre pandemic the conversation was like "but it still the genre people love more to see on a big screen!. There are not alternatives, comedies for women are now a platform thing and historical dramas are for netflix too. People want the bum bum bum on a big screen".
Now barbie 1.5B, Opp 900-1B and no super hero movie in the global top 3 this year.
This is what will really have an impact on the production for the next years and when hollywood will greenlight less super hero movies. The blue beatles and the shazams will dissapear.
Gunn is going to have to rethink his strategy of throwing quirky C-level heroes at the wall.
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
The first three showtimes for The Beekeeper at my local AMC in Dallas are sold out on both Friday and Saturday. Very unusual, as though some group bought out six screenings or something.