[Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32]

33 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think people are just lazy lol. 

 

Comedies require wit and structure and set-up. But with the rise of the improvised driven Apatow comedies, it's cheaper and less time consuming to produce a basic script and just stick a camera in front of actors and have them mug. 

 

No Hard Feelings was hyped as JLaw unlike you've ever seen her. And besides the nude scene (she was already nude in movies before!), it's a half-baked idea overly dependent on her elevating the material with improv. Cocaine Bear and Strays are similar too. These reasons contributed to the genre dying out in the last decade. The Change-Up, The Sitter, The Watch (though, admittedly that did suffer from the Trayvon Martin stuff too lol), The House, Rough Night. Audiences got tired of watching stars repeat the same stupid vulgar shit. The few comedies that did breakout in the latter half of the decade (Sausage Party, Good Boys) didn't carry massive legs because the opening weekend audiences realized the concept only went so far

 

But nowadays people just seem to find "viral" memes and online comedians funny which is mostly the same thing. Someone makes stupid faces in front of a camera and riffs on easy topics and concepts like Trump or whatever. They laugh at the concept of a joke rather than the joke itself?

 

Both Good Boys and Sausage Party had good legs. And Strays isn't even out yet. WTF

[Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32]

5 minutes ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

Nah, comedies have just mostly sucked for a decade at this point. Melissa McCarthy made a bunch of crap in the genre and everyone tried to replicate The Hangover.

 

 

There have been a few good ones, but yup. I think Trainwreck, Sausage Party, Good Boys, and Bros are the only decent ones over the last 8 years. All but one pre-COVID, and then Bros obviously flopped for more than COVID reasons. 

[Weekend Thread | July 7-9 | Weekend Estimates on Page 32]

57 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm pretty much the exact demographic for Joy Ride (diversity-loving liberal who is rooting for studio comedies and movies with good critical reviews) and even I can't be assed to see it. Jokes in trailer were too much of the "unfunny lines delivered loudly and meanly in the tenor of a joke" variety for me. 

 

Also kinda tough that besides Stephanie Hsu (sort of), none of these actresses are even remotely stars. Used to be that comic actors could build fame through supporting roles before getting their starring vehicle. Now they go straight to the starring vehicle. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

52 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

For me, it's tracking behind ATSV. Not by a lot, but, notable enough.

 

However, from what I'm seeing generally, this is running stronger in urban centres than suburbs, and ATSV was the opposite. 

 

I also think the biggest factor going for Barbie is that it seems well positioned to have a great final week and walk ups. 

 

That's more than a little peculiar. This oughta be catnip for suburban parents/kids. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, July 9	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	Disney / Lucasfilm	$28,600,000	$125,800,000	~4,600	-53%
Insidious: The Red Door	Sony Pictures / Screen Gems	$24,100,000	$24,100,000	~3,000	NEW
Sound of Freedom	Angel Studios	$8,900,000	$25,600,000	~2,600	NEW
Joy Ride	Lionsgate	$8,400,000	$8,400,000	~2,700	NEW
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	Sony / Columbia Pictures	$8,000,000	$357,300,000	~3,200	-33%
Elemental	Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar	$7,400,000	$104,700,000	~3,500	-39%
No Hard Feelings	Sony / Columbia Pictures	$4,500,000	$39,800,000	~2,700	-43%
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts	Paramount Pictures	$4,500,000	$146,100,000	~2,600	-39%
The Little Mermaid (2023)	Walt Disney Pictures	$3,600,000	$288,700,000	~2,200	-33%
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken	Universal / DreamWorks Animation	$2,600,000	$11,200,000	~3,400	-53%

 

Weekend Box Office Forecast: INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR, JOY RIDE, and SOUND OF FREEDOM Debut as INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY Looks to Repeat at #1 - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Deadline is also projecting $23M for Insidious, $7-9M for Joy Ride.

 

Box Office: ‘Sound of Freedom’ Battles ‘Indiana Jones’ On July 4th – Deadline

 

After that huge Tuesday I think Sound of Freedom will go much higher.

[Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 | July 12 2023 | 99% on Rotten Tomatoes! | 290M budget so far, Cruise holding Paramount hostage for more money]

Upon rewatch...

 

Fallout

MI1

Rogue Nation

MI3

Ghost Protocol

MI2

 

MI2 is the only bad one in the bunch. 

[Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 | July 12 2023 | 99% on Rotten Tomatoes! | 290M budget so far, Cruise holding Paramount hostage for more money]

2 hours ago, TheDude391 said:

Finished my MI rewatch, my opinions on these really changed a lot since I last saw them!

 

Fallout > MI 1 > Rogue Nation > Ghost Protocol > MI 2 >> MI 3

 

Somebody needs to explain to me how MI3 is the worst when it has the best villain and the only romance with any heart. 

[The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread]

2 hours ago, Eric Jones said:

https://thequorum.com/q3-preview-the-good-the-average-and-the-ugly/

 

 

 

 

 

I still haven't seen a Meg 2 trailer in theaters. Having your trailer in theaters is like the bare minimum. 

[Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director]

If this opens to 50 mil I'll be in awe of what Nolan's name can accomplish. 

[Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 | July 12 2023 | 99% on Rotten Tomatoes! | 290M budget so far, Cruise holding Paramount hostage for more money]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

A lot of marketing doesn't equate to "good" marketing necessarily. 

 

I don't think any of the trailers were as great as the Fallout trailers, personally. And since the teaser dropped last May, I've probably seen it in front of roughly 50 movies since

 

Fair enough. The trailers haven't been as good for sure. 

[Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Tom Cruise and Oppenheimer and Barbie will inject some positivity back into here. 

 

I'm expecting outstanding weekday numbers. Looking forward to seeing the holds from last week to this week.

 

With hindsight, Fast X, Flash and Indy 5 underperforming makes sense. Last summer we had Gru and Thor right now. Right now, those are bigger properties by a lot than Fast X, Flash and Indy domestic. Just is what it is...

 

The Flash was preceded by Justice League and other bad movies. Not to mention news of a reboot. 

Dial of Destiny was preceded by Crystal Skull.

Fast X was preceded by two bad movies.

 

Despite quite a bit of precedent, we underestimated how damaged these brands had become. Meanwhile Rise of the Beasts was preceded by Bumblebee and somehow, some way grossed more than Indy on opening weekend and has overperformed somewhat. 

[Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Both had an (albeit smaller) fan base for Wes Anderson and JLaw respectively, which boosted the OW. But the bigger issue is that the more casual moviegoers who used to come out in week 2 and beyond are now more content to wait for streaming, so most everything drops harder 

 

Air dropped 43% from opening to second Sat (off Wed opening), and found legs later, maybe NHF (-45%) and Asteriod (-49%) can do the same … if they can hold onto screens 

 

The only way to complete rebuilding theatrical is to divest somewhat from streaming, but studios seem unwilling to do that. Return to the 6-9 month window (and even then only make it available via digital rental) and the business will fully recover within a year. 

[Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 | July 12 2023 | 99% on Rotten Tomatoes! | 290M budget so far, Cruise holding Paramount hostage for more money]

4 hours ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

I feel like the marketing has been underwhelming ngl

 

People keep saying this about every movie this summer. I think social media and algorithms have just ensured that not everybody sees the same ads anymore. There is Mission Impossible everywhere at movie theaters and on cable TV. 

[Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3]

3 minutes ago, LegionWrex said:

I've had my bad share of experiences going to the theater but it's not nearly as common as some people would have you believe.

 

I've also heard things about moviegoing culture in other countries (CJohn is from Portugal it seems), where it's just not the norm to respect the "sanctity" of the experience. For example, in Mexico it's seen as much more of an interactive, less serious endeavor.

[Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3]

17 minutes ago, CJohn said:

People are done with this theatrical shit. I am certainly tired of dealing with loud raunchy groups and phones always on when I can see things in my couch.

 

Where the fuck do you live?

[Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3]

7 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Where the fuck are people watching these movies

 

Like every Reddit thread about theaters people are bashing them and complaining about people being on phones, talking loudly, getting up and doing some outlandish shit. Like damn I go to the movies once a week and rarely experience any of that

 

They're either making it up or they live far from major cities where etiquette could be worse I suppose. But I'm with you, I go once sometimes twice a week and rarely experience any issues. When I do it's during an animated flick because obviously kids are more unruly. 

[⊃∪∩⪽ Part II | March 1, 2024 | Reactions drop February 15, reviews February 21 | Zendaya for our next C-3P0]

1 hour ago, dudalb said:

I am asurprised how few people have read the novel. It is one of the great classics of Science Fiction. There is a reason why there were two previous attempts to film it.

 

Unfortunately it's not a part of most school curriculums. Most scifi classics, like 1984, Brave New World, and Fahrenheit 451, are read in school. 

[Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3]

Just now, LegionWrex said:

I can see it doing very well on Disney+ but Animated Feature is pretty much out of the question, Spider-Verse and Miyazaki are basically locked to win unless Wish is somehow the second coming of Christ. It will get nominated though I think, and if it does get nominated a Score nomination is likely to come along with it (name check nomination for Thomas Newman, he got nominated for Passengers for god's sake).

 

Elemental is a good step for Pixar. Even if it's still not enough given the high budget (a trend this summer), Pixar is going to have to rebuild just like the theatrical business overall had to rebuild (and is still rebuilding). 

[Steve Rogers Birthday Bash Weekend Thread | 5-Day #s: Indy 83.4, Elemental 18, Spidey 17.65, Sound of Freedom 14.2, No Hard Feelings 11.3]

Can somebody explain to me why movies with sub-20 mil openings and not-at-all-bad WOM are experiencing 50% drops in their second weekend? Just doesn't make sense that stuff like Asteroid City & No Hard Feelings would be frontloaded at all. 

[Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | June 30 2023 | Very mixed reviews out of Cannes]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

There seems to be a twenty year window where nostalgia is effective.

 

Keaton and Indy fell flat. It's possible certain geek franchises have audiences who age out after a while.

 

I think once your kids graduate high school you stop caring about some of this stuff.

 

For godsake the movie hasn't even opened yet. 

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

Fallout was the highest OW for the franchise and even that only grossed 61 mil. Anything over that for DR will be impressive in my book. 

[The Flash | June 16 2023 | Ezra Miller, Michael Keaton | We’re stoping the count at a Nice 69% RT (it’s 72% For Real) | Please Remember that Your Enjoyment Of The Film is Not Based On Others Opinions And To Be Nice To Each Other]

3 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Yeah even at the time I thought it was a bone head idea to show the trinity for the first time outside of a Justice league film and not doing world’s finest before bvs? They could’ve easily have milked the franchise but they rushed into everything. Even showing the other JL members in cameos in bvs? Like really? And the death of Superman? Already? It’s like they did everything they could to rush through 10 years of stories in one movie. For fuck sake they even killed Robin before we met him.

 

Lot of people thought this at the time too. Just completely boneheaded that they thought they would see the same success by fast-forwarding in order to catch up with Marvel. 

[The Flash | June 16 2023 | Ezra Miller, Michael Keaton | We’re stoping the count at a Nice 69% RT (it’s 72% For Real) | Please Remember that Your Enjoyment Of The Film is Not Based On Others Opinions And To Be Nice To Each Other]

Blown away by how poorly this has performed. Just does not compute for me. The movie's not great but it's not bad at all, sometimes even flirts with greatness before the third act. I'm not sure what GA is hating given their lack of discernment elsewhere. Part of me is beginning to wonder if more people than we think know about the coming reboot. First Shazam 2 opens 20 mil lower than anticipated, now Flash opens 30 mil lower than anticipated. 

[Five Nights at Freddy's | October 27, 2023 | In Theaters and Peacock simultaneously]

Assuming it's bad based on this move. Nevertheless, just...why? 

[The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)]

1 hour ago, joselowe said:

I know it’s early but based on early screenings any predictions for Barbie vs Oppenheimer opening weekend?

 

Oppenheimer: $60 million

Barbie: $80 million

 

or am I way off?

 

 

I'm thinking Barbie at 90m+ and Oppenheimer around 40m.