ThiagoMaia
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Posts posted by ThiagoMaia
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I'm seeing people say that if the good hold on Monday is from spillover that is not a good sign for legs, but wouldn't there be spillover into the next weekend? Some people can't watch it on weekdays, and the OW was sold out, so they go on the second weekend. Right?
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9 minutes ago, Critically Acclaimed Panda said:
Kudos for doing that but only using 10 data points is going to result in heavily flawed results. To get a better picture you’d probably want to use all 100m+ openings then throw in dummy variables for inflated Sunday, deflated Sunday, inflated sat, deflated sat and inflated fri and deflated fri so you don’t have to throw out points like AoU or BP.
You had an interesting approach though. I may actually try and put in the data myself later today to see if I get anything.
I don’t think you can say anything significant though from only 10 data points.
Yeah, I figured as much, but couldn't quite remember the statistical tests I learned in college, and didn't have to the time to research more. The high correlation gave me hope, though. Still probably better than a gut feeling...
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I think people won't give this much credit, and even I find it a little hard to believe, but I put all the top 10 openings on a spreadsheet, + GotG2 and found a strong correlation between Saturday to Sunday drop, and the multiplier. I removed AoU, considering it an outlier (which is reasonable, considering it dropped from true friday to saturday, and had a specially good saturday to sunday drop, which is usually attributed to the fight) and used 700 as BP's total, and I found a 95% correlation between Sunday/Saturday and the multiplier. Other strong correlations were Sunday/Friday (63%), and OW/Saturday (64%), all of these had projections very close to each other, from 2.98 to 3.20 multipliers, but the Sunday/Saturday had the best coefficient of determination. The projection based on A:IW using the Sunday/Saturday ratio, is 3.2 multiplier, for a total of U$ 824.52M. That has a coefficient of determination of 94% and a residual sum of squares of 0.015. Using only the MCU may openers, I get 3.13, with a total of U$ 809.01M. I hope my calculations are right, and IW keeps up the pattern, would love it to beat Avatar.
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1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:
Of course the preview to o/w was the lowest - previews were $39m - $11.4m more than the nearest opener.
A 6.62 multi for a preview that size is impressive. TLJ had a 4.88. I knew the multi would go down, though not anywhere near SW numbers but thought 6 to 6.25 for AIW. Tele argued it was going lower - that even with $40m in previews there was no chance in hell of it hitting $240m
Most interesting and impressive though is how it is back weekend loaded compared to other movies with huge previews. It's FSS is 3.27 for an o/w off Friday. That's a great number for a movie a fraction of the size let alone a $258m opener that already burned of $39m. The Avengers was about 3.02 with 18.6m of previews.
Right now I think 2.5 - 2.6 is on the lower end of the multi it can have
I think this weekend is going to drop in the 50-53% range and be around $460-470m after the 2nd weekend
The best way to look one cane say the FSS internal multplie is one of the best if not the best Marvel has ever had.
I agree, the preview percentage of the OD doesn't mean anything considering that it would be literally impossible to make much more OD than 2x previews. The true Friday is the largest ever, the only way the previews could represent a smaller percentage of the OD would be if it was lower itself.
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7 minutes ago, Tree said:
Same genre? They're the same fucking film.. sorry but from my point of view they're pretty much all identical and interchangeable. I'm glad you have your own opinion but so do I, and I am not "crazy".
Well, in this case what you're saying is not a matter of opinion, it's objectively false. There are really strong differences between the movies mentioned. I can't even think of why would someone call them identical.
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5 minutes ago, Rman823 said:
RT currently has Infinity War with 235.1M for the weekend.
They have 84% of the real number: 280 OW confirmed.
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I have to watch Aliens and Fullmetal Jacket before sending my list. Two movies I believe I will enjoy a lot, but never watched. I have loved every Kubrick movie I watched, and I watched 1 minute of Aliens before having to stop because the internet was lagging, but it the ambientation just felt amazing.
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11 minutes ago, Mekanos said:
Will Lucasfilm have a nice little picture to congratulate Marvel Studios? Might seem weird if they're both Disney.
Disney will be like:
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Wow! Incredible number! All of the Sunday holds from the 200M+ openers would give it the record now, except TLJ. Civil War's hold would put it at 234 (why was that hold so bad?
)
I hope it plays out closer to The Avengers than CW, it deservers every record, and I think it has the WOM to pull it off.
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4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
it's me
We would know, because he would report the numbers in fractions of Avatar gross.
"Infinity War is headed for an opening day of 0.036A"
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Really loved this movie! It felt like there wasn't a single non-epic moment in this movie. I am amazed at how well they've managed to do it. It is in fact exhausting, but in a good way. Can't wait to see it again. It certainly lived up to the hype for me, and I've never been more hyped for a movie. (This message is actually very self contained, my reaction is way stronger, really)
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I'm very surprised at the number of trailer views, 4th all time only behind the two Infinity War trailers and It. I thought the trailer was better than the first, but doesn't look like a good movie at all. Hope I'm wrong, though.
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Thursday: 52M
Friday: 70M
Saturday: 80M
Sunday: 68M
Total: 270M
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23 minutes ago, druv10 said:
Fantastic for BP and with double feature next week with AIW, 700M is back on the table.
Could BP actually increase next weekend?
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7 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:
It's a sub-50% drop from the 3-day. And, the movie is actually doing really strongly OS (a 550 WW finish is likely, w/200+ possibly coming from China). Don't see why you're so convinced this movie is in dire straits.
Hey, I know that band!
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35 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:
Its gonna pass another milestone this Friday. Passing Justice league’s worldwide gross!
I so wish I could make a club for IW OW over JL DOM
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47 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
FYC: I could give hundreds but here's a half dozen (for now)
I'm desperately looking to watch In the Mood for love, but there isn't a copy in my local rental place, and couldn't find it in any (legal) streaming services in Brazil.
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Hey, what does the soft and hard date mean?
Also, not sure if this is going to make into my list, but find it worthy of consideration, since I don't see many people here talking about it:
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7 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:
I thought Strangers: Prey at Night has one of the best simple and catchy titles of the year and that only opened to 10.4. It looks like Quiet Place could open in 1,000 more spots than Strangers did, but I only see this doing half of The Girl on the Train numbers.
The colon on "Strangers: Prey at Night" makes it look like a sequel, I for one have no idea what it is about, or if it is a sequel or not, and have no interest on finding out. I think A Quiet Place has way more buzz, it had a Super bowl TV spot, online trailer has more views, and great reviews. It certainly has way more breakout potential than Strangers: Prey at Night.
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5 hours ago, La Binoche said:
Now that the dust has settled, did people genuinely LOVE BP or did they get swept up by the hype and by Marvel's workmanlike efficiency in making and promoting the movie?
You couldn't pay me to see it a second time.
I almost loved it, saw it twice, but I would anyway just because it's MCU. Without getting into spoilers: I loved the villain (the secondary villain too), and the main hero conflict in terms of how to be a king. It had some moments that were just breathtaking to me, but I felt that the time was a bit poorly distributed (too long first act, too short rest). And the cgi was just so crappy at times, that takes away from the movie a lot for me.
It's funny how my perception of movies after depends a lot on how many flaws I perceive in it. Spider-Man homecoming was a movie that didn't have much to make me love during the first watch, but remembering afterwards, the lack of problems in it made me like a lot retroactively, meanwhile BP had some of the greatest thrills, but the problems drag it down for me looking back.
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3 hours ago, LaughingEvans said:
Mate, it's Saturday morning, not even Odin has the Saturday numbers. The 16.5 refers to Friday number.
It was a joke with the title that had Sat instead of Friday by mistake.
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Wow, 16.5 Sat after a 16 friday? That must be the worst increase ever for a movie out of the opening weekend...
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35 minutes ago, cookie said:
So if it follows past Deadline trajectory BP is going to climb to a ludicrous number like $80m or something.
"Cut back to a week ago, and we saw T’Challa lower in the $90M-plus range, and then he just blew up. That’s apt to happen again as many believe he’s headed to $500M by Sunday. Black Panther is eyeing $16M today, -44%."
Does this mean they didn't change at all their method for calculating the weekend based on last weekend's pattern?
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11 minutes ago, Jandrew said:
I wont do any Marvel ranks, but I will say that the "Bucky killed your parents, Tony" reveal in Civil War was the stupidest, most eye rolling thing in the entire MCU. So awful, it ruined the entire 3rd act and downgraded the rest.
The Trevor reveal is actually pretty funny and enjoyable, fanboys should loosen their underwear about that, but man, that Civil War reveal. Even once Phase 7 comes around, that'll still be the top ridiculous thing the MCU has done. Just ass.
Why do you say that? It was well stabilished previously. It was shown by Zola on The Winter Soldier, and makes sense with the character that Tony's father was as shown in CA1, Ant-Man and the Agent Carter TV Show. Or are you talking about Tony's reaction being stupid?
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Wed #s IW - 16.8m
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Honest question to @baumer (as the person who had the theory yesterday about increased demand because of discounts on tuesday big movies not countering the value of the discount), or to anyone who cares to explain. If that theory is true, shouldn't it get a smaller drop compared to the rest of the movies today? I was pretty convinced by the theory yesterday, but this has put me in doubt.