bamajagala
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Posts posted by bamajagala
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I don't believe IW gets to 60 as Deadline projects with 15.5 Friday. They did the same last weekend and just rounded up to 120. It needs pretty strong jump on Saturday of 25.5 (+65%) and strong Sunday hold of 19 (-25%). Not impossible, but on the optimistic side. I know BP hade that mid 80% Sat jump, but I don't think it will come close to that.
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57 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:
Hmmm.... who's saying that it won't top Black Panther?
And let me say this: @MCKillswitch123 is right: Black Panther could very likely top Infinity War, but am I the only one that is sort of having enough of @Thrylos 7 making these threads about himself? I mean, c'mon dude. we get it. You think Infinity War is underperforming, regardless how hillarious wrong you are, we get it. It's not this thread that you are making it personal, it's literally all the dailies.
Here's what I think: even if Infinity War perform slightly below Black Panther during some weekends, it will keep operating very closely to that throughout its entire run, and since Infinity War is way ahead of Black Panther, I think Infinity War's probability of keeping it ahead is very high. I think Panther will be able to cross $700m but not much after that. Infinity War though? I think it'll fall around $720m-$750m. With the rest of the OS and China numbers, I do think that $2B WW and topping Titanic is still an avaliable target.
720-750 is unrealistic now. More like 640-670.
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Amazing numbers for AIW! I wish Disney's stock price would follow. As unmathced as Disney's IP in studio entertainment is, it just doesn't move the needle. Their biggest releases since the start of 2015, WW grosses IN BILLIONS:
TFA: 2.068
AIW: est 2.3
AOU: 1.405
BP: est 1.35
TLJ: 1.332
BATB: 1.263
CW: 1.153
RO: 1.056
FD: 1.029
ZOOTOPIA: 1.024
TJB: .967
GOTG2: .864
INSIDE OUT: .857
THORRAG: .854
COCO: .800
DOCSTRANGE: .678
MOANA: .643
CINDERALLA: .543
TOTAL GROSS : est 20.186 BILLION
This is just their top 18 grossers. None of these titles have done anything for share price. In almost 3.5 years, DIS stock has gone from 94/share to 99/share, basically nowhere in a bull market. Studio entertainment is only 16.3% of DIS revenue while parks/resorts and media networks account for almost 75% (consumer products is the lowest revenue category 9%). It seems all anybody cares about is ESPN and cord cutting as the major drivers. As much as I love box office and have followed it for 20 years, investing in a company based on box office perfomance is futile. That's not to say that DIS isn't thrilled by the studio perfomance over the course of the last 10 years, it just pales in comparison to other segments they own.
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AIW is tearing up the evening shows in LA and NY. I wouldn't doubt that it reaches 30m today, in fact I would lean that way. Momentum should carry big time into weekend 2. I'm betting a 45% drop for 141m (40+54+47) or more. 850-875 final domestic tally. I'm not an MCU fan by any means and a big SW fan, but numbers are numbers and one shouldn't underestimate what this freight train is capable of.
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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:
Jumanji winning the 4 day would just be crazy. It was at half of TLJ's gross last weekend.
I mean't TLJ, but it's consistently come under estimates, so who knows. But if I was a betting man right now I'd go with TLJ
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20 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
True...or the areas still out of school this week are ones going to Jumanji and not ones going to Star Wars (so the evening shows will go almost all one way)...do we have a breakdown of where the 2 movies are doing better or worse (or are they performing almost the same everywhere?)...
EDIT: Although looking at MT.com through the morning, TLJ is stretching its gap advantage, so I think, without a big change later today, it should hold on for the 4 day...
It should win the 4 day based on mt and what I'm seeing
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Disney's stock was the 25th ranked member of the DOW in 2017, up 3.2%, while the market was up 20%. Their revenue breakdown in the latest quarter: Media networks: 5.47b, parks and resorts: 4.67b, studio entertainment 1.43b, consumer products and interactive media: 1.22b. So studio is 11% of total revenue for latest quarter.
As mentioned by another poster, their stock underperformance the last couple years has been driven by cord cutting with a particular focus on ESPN.
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38 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:
I haven't posted my TLJ box office thoughts, Attack of the Clones and Empire both dropped about 33% (I did the exact math in another topic) from their predecessors, which is exactly where this is headed for. Most people here are predicting that Solo drops about 33% from Rogue One, too! That is the pattern with this series. Nothing about this is stunning at all. Pretty much everyone who sees TLJ saw The Force Awakens. But PLENTY of people who saw Force Awakens are not seeing the Last Jedi, because it doesn't have that curious rush factor. It is totally natural. Avengers1 and JW had once in a generation perfect storm of factors going for them, and they're STILL going to do less than TLJ, a middle movie in a saga. It's just projection of their own hate, half rooted in the movie not fulfilling their theories and half rooted in the SJW angle, that makes this run "disappointing" in some way. It's the most annoying and toxic box office discussion in years, and that's saying something. I've been disengaged from weekend threads because of it, despite a ton interesting going on.
Amen. I've also had to disengage as well even though I want the numbers.
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4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:
On the NYD projection...
TLJ has been rocking 10ams and falling flat at 10pms...but how many folks are gonna be up early for 10ams on 1/1? And most folks work the next day, so 10pms and later should still suck...so if you go from 4 shows a day rocking it (like on 12/30) to 3 shows a day rocking it (12/31 and 1/1), it's not a big leap to think NYD might not be better than NYE (which will also have 3 rocking shows, but at different times, with 7pms starting to suck and 10pms being dead)...
Rocking 10 am's? I'll give you flat on 10pm, but my checks have shown it doing well in afternoon shows into the evening, but pretty quiet in the morning. Tiny sample size on my end though, so anecdotal at best
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If 19.5 is sat and we know 19.06 was Fri than Disney is projecting 13.8 for nye and 13.1 for nyd. That doesn't make much sense.
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5 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:
It hurts in that this gives the theaters much more leverage to tell Disney to beep off when they demand the world and premium screens for eternity going forward. Its the premium formats that are saving SW to a degree right now. Disney can get away with demanding the world if they are bringing out sell out showings for the entire holiday break and solid numbers for the 2 weeks in Jan but if there are other movies that could do the same or better business in their Imax, Dolby and RMX of the world they will do that instead.
I guess what I am saying is it won't effect TLJ but it could affect Solo and IX legs if Disney can't demand 4 weeks of Imax and instead gets 2 weeks with an theater controlled option.
It's only beating Jumanji right now because it has all of the premium theaters. Give Jumanji even half and its either tied or ahead. And this is despite SW, in general, having more screens than Jumanji also. Someone already mentioned it but Jumanji is selling out the prime time showings at the beginning of the day while there is still plenty of seats from prime time SW showings.
Last paragraph is true. No disagreements
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21 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:
I was going to make this exact post. Literally I was going to start with "Expectations are everything"
Does Jumanji have a chance of passing TLJ dailies tomorrow? Taking 2006 as an example, if TLJ goes like NatM, and Jumanji like most other movies that year, Jumanji will have a bigger Saturday. Thought Jumanji is probably more similar to NatM, right?
It could pass it today. Weekdays will lag behind the TLJ but will probably win next weekend and an outside shot at this weekend.
I understand context and budget and expectations. I too am a bit disappointed in TLJ performance, and impressed by jumanji. As a SW fan I was hoping it would beat Avatar and instead it'll end 640ish. No other franchise could do this well (640-650) and be described as disappointing. If this underperformance trickles down to SW9 then I would truly be disappointed. I liked TLJ but understand others frustration with RJ's take on it.
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I guess expectations are everything. For a movie that's burned off 484m of demand and still beating a movie that's only burned off 137m on a daily basis, and calling one's performance "meh" or worse, and the other "amazing, is to me funny in a backwards sort of way.
Sing was treated the same way against RO last year and The Revenant against TFA.
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Jumanji is doing great in evening shows, possibly 18-20 . TLJ should increase, maybe 21-22. Gonna be a close weekend. I'm normally wrong, but we'll see
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7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:
One would think Deadline is projecting based on stronger night shows. Perhaps the matinee shows were pretty weak compared to last few days.
I didn't see a big difference in matinees, but my sample size is miniscule, so your probably right
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Deadline might be onto something. My theater checks in LA/NY show matinees pretty much flat as are early evening shows. Looks like 7pm shows are a little ahead as are the late night ones. Should see an increase something in the ballpark of what a2knet is showing. Hope it's more
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7 minutes ago, Reyhawk said:
Yeesh, not a great CD # (relatively). TLJ will still be a massive success, but this goes to show how much of an outlier TFA was. Hope people can now recognize how impressive that run truly was.
I appreciated it back then, but I really appreciate it now, one of the great box office runs of our lifetime
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3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
How the f*ck is someone like that allowed to write articles in Forbes????
Forbes ceased to be a useful investment publication years ago and that goes for box office analysis as well. BOT has some of the best analysis compared to click bait crap like this.
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2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:
Right, so I guess shopping and travel really don't beat missing one of your fullest shows for the morning, especially when your late nights suck...
Man, 2 days in a row...I think I should stop now and go on a trip and just watch (see everyone in a few) b/c 3 in a row for called days would be impossible:)...
MT.com really showed the Jumamji strength (and the other holdovers to a lesser extent) and the TLJ "weakness" for jumps...
You've been bang on the last couple of days, great job! My sample of 20 theaters in NY and LA (been tracking since TFA) we're stronger than Saturday's 29m right up until the 10pm showings, just like you were saying with your set of theaters. Everything just dried up at that hour.
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Strong Christmas incoming for TLJ as expected. Theater checks in LA/NY show ~ 20% increase from Saturday 29.2= 34-35. Not quite a double from last night's 18, but it looks like walk-ups are stronger than usual.
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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:
Thanks guys. Hopefully they are lowballing so actuals are higher.
Don't worry, they are. Disney's estimate for Sunday was 14.6 and it gets 17.9. 34 at least today.
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Called 17 yesterday. 34-35 incoming today or more! 17 was supposed to be best case and it nearly gets 18, great start to Christmas run.
NY and LA are strong today, better than 29m Saturday
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29 minutes ago, The Greatest Rth said:
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20m
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1 hour ago, Christmas baumer said:
Everything you just said here is wrong.
Exactly. I've followed the box office for 20 years and been a part time investment advisor for 10+ years and have found there to be 2 types of people when it comes to numbers: those who study the financials, technicals, and fundamentals and do their due diligence and those that don't.
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THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE
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Japan has been devaluing it's currency for 20+ years in an effort to combat a trade imbalance. Also has kept it's interest rates artificially low to promote growth. It's been a long deflationary period that has no end in sight.