1Robert1
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Posts posted by 1Robert1
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11 minutes ago, vale9001 said:
?
30 M next weekdays
32m next weekend
20m weekdays
I don"t know why some of you are living in a different universe from us where Barbie didn't make 96M first week weekdays (on a 162M weekend) and 55M second week weekdays on a 93M second weekend.
Weekdays are Just insane and record breaking, only 40% less than all weekend.
It's math and from this week alteady it's bigger than Jurassic world. Just that.
can you explain me how your math works, cause if barbie will be around 550, maybe even slightly better because next weekend is empty, and JW was 572. will barbie have better much better weekends than 37-38 percents drops as JW, or maybe july's weekdays will be much worse than late august /early september weekdays of jw.
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12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
No. But keep telling that to yourself. Success are SV, SoF, Barbenheimer. They don't need look toys! look squirrel! look our 250M budget magically dropped to 212.10M puff pieces. They are successes cause they look like success. They didn't have to crawl and pull tricks out of their asses to reach milestones. They smashed them.
ok you hate this movie, so you will consider is a failure
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14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
They can post as assurance articles about net profit and toy sales, etc nobody in the indsutry sees this as a success. It's getting absolutely clobbered by Oppenheimer lol. Nothing exists in a vacuum. The budget is still ridiculous, SFX didn't look good, movies with much smaller budget absolutely shit on it despite being tougher sells. Disney is now trying to drag it across 300M dom with singalong tricks cause it couldn't have done it otherwise. Compared to cheaper productions such as BatB, Aladdin and TLK, it's a massive disappointment and everyone knows it.
movie will make money, and it definitely helped toy sales so it's success not as big as disney wanted but still success
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according to forbes Disney's net spending on the movie was $212.1 million, with this number movie will have a profit.
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1 hour ago, vale9001 said:
There wasn't also movies in july with record breaking Summer weekdays.
1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:There wasn't a movie with 100mln opening released in July that had a sub-50% second weekend hold and reached 400m in 14 days, and then Barbie did both quite easily.
yes it will make more than 630 if it will continue to break records, in my opinion expecting that something will continue breaking records is optimistic, and in your opinion realistic.
41 minutes ago, M37 said:
Um …
But all Barbie needs is drop ~40% weekly to reach that total. That’s well within range of standard for these big blockbusters with good WOM
you are 100 percent right if it will have weekly drops around 40 percent it will be very close to 630, but last 5 days barbie was slightly worse than 40 percent, if it will have weekly drops around 42 percent it will finish with 610 mln.
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29 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
You make it sound like those people don't exist. You're just arguing for the sake of it at this point.
it doesnt matter if this people will watch this movie for the first time or not. there wasnt movie with 100mln opening released in july with with legs as barbie needs to reach 630.
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2 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
You know people can watch a movie more than once, right? And in fact with this kind of movie, that's how these numbers get reached, with repeat viewings?
does it change fact that barbie needs more than 12 mln people to watch/rewatch this movie to hit 600 mln?
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2 hours ago, reddevil19 said:
While I agree we still have a way to go to see it reach Avengers or JW, the demo has been skewing more and more heavily female after OW. Way more than WW, let alone typical CBMs. It was up to 70% female last weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's higher this weekend.
so after this weekend it will need more than 9 mln females and 3 mln males to reach 600 mln. there is around 55 mln woman in america between 15-40, and around 25 mln of them already watched movie.
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10 minutes ago, vale9001 said:
your analysis imo is too focused on weekends and weekdays are just "weekdays". This week barbie made mon-thu 55M dollar, avengers made 29M. The difference is very big even if weekends are then 5% lower.
Avengers made on third week weekdays 19M. Barbie could make more than that for the next 2 weeks.
Avengers not only is a different genre but was released at the very first of may when weekends are bigger and weekdays slower. And still barbie weekends are very slightly lower with weekdays the double bigger.
Even if summer came for Avengers too and its weekdays it was after 2 months of release so it's different when you have it from week 1.
well you ignored this part of my analysis where i mentioned memorial day and expansion, avengers was released on may 4th in southern states summer break started one month after avengers was released. You should also remember that i said 630 mln is imo too optimistic which means avenger plus 7 millions.
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1 hour ago, vale9001 said:
it's a very different genre from avengers. Summer 2012 was full of others action blockbusters.
2 other cinecomics (spider man and Batman came in the same summer). Barbie is a comedy, very strong on the female audience (a new barbie it's not coming next week...or next month).
You need to wait to know how long legs can be.
wonder woman was very strong on the female audience, idea that barbie will make more than 50 percent more than ww is very optimistic for me, but you are right we have to wait to know how long legs can be.
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22 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
I agree people are way too optimistic. Barbie has a great shot at 610 - 630M, but Jurassic World is categorically out of reach.
imo 630 is also to optmistic, avengers ended with 623, right now barbie is 4 mln ahead, avengers had 55 mln weekend, of course barbie will have better weekdays, but avengers had memorial day, so first month will be very similar, but late in run avengers had summer weekdays, and young people back in school/college will hurt barbie late legs. Avengers also had expansion which added around 5 mln. Last Jedi had really bad late legs, but after this monday will have 60 mln lead.
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If Barbie will fell 44 percent every week it will end below 600, 40 percent around 625, 35 percent around 680, how people calculated it may win with Maverick. It's still 40 mln behind jurrasic world, and barbie would have to beat 55 mln this weekend to get closer, and JW eneded with 652, after expansion.
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20 hours ago, Valonqar said:
well then they shouldn't have invested 250M in it or make a live action. Point being, Barbie will make well over twice that TLM made WW for little over half its budget.
This movie had also other goals than box office success so Disney would want do this movie even if they know it wouldnt be a profitable movie.
19 hours ago, Kon said:To be fair, The Little Mermaid didn't have a so big box office, because it was the movie that started Disney renaissance.
At that time, animation wasn't in a really good position. It was The Little Mermaid who started the renaissance of Disney animated movies.
what about who framed rogger rabbit,
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3 hours ago, Valonqar said:
Barbie's gonna make twice as much next week. To be a fly on Iger's wall when that happens.
Iger is definetely not suprised that barbie is much more popular than little mermaid...Animated little mermaid wasnt as popular as aladdin, lion king, or beauty and beast.
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7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
Weird they did not go for dual features with HM. So it has to rely on labor day expansion to hit 300m. Let us see if Disney goes for it. Previously studios used to try hard to hit milestones as that helps with tv rights but in this streaming era I am not sure as D+ is all internal.
you probably missed that Disney is looking to give one final boost to the box office of its live-action adaption of “The Little Mermaid”, as Disney has announced a special sing-along version of the film is going to be released
to soon to say if it will be only in one country, but if this be worldwide event it will make more money. I dont see any reason why disney wouldnt want push it too 300mln in usa. Frozen reached 400mln after 155 days, and black panther reached 700mln after 171 days
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DOMESTIC (52.6%)
$296,908,134 -
if barbie will be on hbo max 45 days after release wouldnt it kill dreams about 1.5 bln ?
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how much will Barbie earn for WB?
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After 2nd weekend Barbie will be close to THE lion king can it have total as big as the lion king?
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3 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:
I'm actually surprised that it managed a $4M week internationally, I tought it would drop way harder... this most likely means that it had a 2M or so weekend, and about 50% drop which is softer than expected there. Maybe it's due to Japan not having Barbie out just yet.
As it stands, I expect about 2-3 more M coming from USA and pheraps 4-6 M internationally for a final total in the range of 566-570 M WW.
270 OS + 300 US roughly... with this result being just about the break even point, whether the movie was a mild disappointement, a slight success or whatever will always be up for discussion, I guess. Though looking just at pure numbers, I doubt that any studio wishes to invest 1 dollar just to get that very same dollar back after 5 years (very long development process here, with covid and everything).
I mean, a 1.01$ return on a 1$ investement (1%profit) should not be worth the effort...
Yesterday you predicted 560😉 disney wanted increase value of little mermaid brand, and if movie would be success it would be cherry on the cake.
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On 7/24/2023 at 10:41 AM, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:
Might barely go over 560 M but could also miss it just by a hair, from the way things are going.
according to box office mojo it's already went over 560
DOMESTIC (52.8%)
$296,107,607i dint expect that Barbenheimer effect will be so devastating for barbie in the usa, i thought it will comfortably reach 564 mln which is 2.35x of it's budget. -
2 hours ago, MG10 said:
A 560M breakeven point is so absurd it's almost insulting, 625M should be the absolute minimum and it's already being generous...
usually movie needs 2.5x, so you're right about it, but LM isn't typical movie it will make more money in usa than in other countries, so i think something like 575 could give a minimal profit
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sorry but your comparison doesnt have sense cause we would have to compare the days when the children were at school(Aladdin case) with the days when the children were not at school(little mermaid).
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8 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:DOMESTIC (53.1%)
$295,169,006INTERNATIONAL (46.9%)
$260,304,742WORLDWIDE
$555,473,748Per B.O. Mojo.Might end up just slightly above deadline's break-even point ($560 M); should add 4M$ in USA (if it follows Aladdin's path) and I guess 5M$ more Internationally (most of it coming from Japan)?in usa LM made last week almost half of what Aladdin made, Aladdin made 20 mln more in upcoming weeks, 4 mln more for lm is very conservative bet, disney will definitely push it over 300 mln, and 5 mln internationally after 6.7 mln week is also very conservative. Deadline's predicted 300-350 in usa, so LM finishing so close to this lower number may mean that break-even point is slightly higher than 560.
Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
no idea what mid week opening has to do with rest of it run, JW made another 80 mln after 4th week, and barbie will need 100 mln. 25 percent more with worse calendar.