Aristis
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Posts posted by Aristis
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18 minutes ago, terrestrial said:
Estimated £4m opening day for Rogue One: A Star Wars Story in the UK.
If I followed former discussions correctly this is not that good
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2 hours ago, juni78ukr said:
Official Thursday numbers are coming up.
65 mln RUB or $1.07 mln ROGUE ONE
http://www.kinobusiness.com/news/kassa-chetverga-15-12-2016-onlayn/index.php
I really liked this Aljoscha-movie!
Is a new one coming hence the background?
I don't know if you know what I mean (I don't how it's spelled in Cyrillic)
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9 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:
First weekend estimates from insidekino.de and it looks like a close one:
#1: R1 - 1.025k admissions
#2: Sing - 300k (-20%, good)
#3: FB - 175k (-35%, not so good)
#4: WbdH - 125k (-30%)
#5: OCP - 85k (-30%)
Well, it looks as if R1 can make it to the million, but of course it depends on the internal multiplier. I liked it well enough, most reviews are good and my crowd sounded mildly positive so I hope it will not crumble!
I hope RO can increase from that estimate
I don't think that -30% is bad for FB. Holidays start next week, RO is huge competition. I think that's good!
FB at 2,79M
WbdH 2,73M
Both should pass 3M by far... They'll pass maybe even 3,5M
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Petterson & Findus does really great! But it has so much cinemas
But the best occurrence this weekend: It is up from last year and that by a healthy 22% (Top20)! The last time that happened was the weekend 27. - 30. Oktober. So up to now it seems December could save the year from being that bad. We'll see how next weekend will contribute, when RO is obviously facing a tough task (SW7 had over 2,1M admissions).
I hope I'm just a pessimist
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On 12.12.2016 at 9:05 PM, Kraken said:
The second increase in a row for Moana?!
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9 hours ago, George Parr said:
3. Wbd Hartmanns 160k
-10%
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7.12. - 11.12
1 695.311 -31 1.818.824 2 Moana 2 517.168 --- 517.168 1 Demain tout commence 3 335.653 --- 335.653 1 Papa ou mana 2 4 269.696 -41 3.062.168 4 FB 5 247.403 --- 247.403 1 Arrival 6 209.448 -50 714.496 2 Sully 7 108.098 -47 817.876 3 Allied 8 42.233 -45 310.454 3 La Fille de Brest 9 34.880 --- 34.880 1 Baccalaureal 10 27.780 -35 510.842 5 Hacksaw Ridge Source: InsideKino
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With 150k Hartmann's is down only 15% now! At last it's holding better again
. With Holidays coming there could still be much left!
With -26% (80k) Arrival holds good, too! Not as much as deserved but really good numbers for that movie.
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Friday Numbers: It seems that are Thursday numbers too - would probably have been lowSing is first with about 30k
FB 25k
WbdH 16,5k
Office Christmas Party 14,5k
Arrival 10,5k
http://www.mediabiz.de/film/news/kinocharts-deutschland-trend-jetzt-ist-musik-drin/413681
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Hm... without China this could drop 40% to 50%. XR did not get better at all (beside Japan maybe).
I hope for an increase in China. Maybe $150M?
GB $90M (lc70M)
Japan maybe $70M?
Germany $60M
Let's say this drops 40% elsewhere: $380M
That makes $750M. I say $550M + $750M makes $1,3B
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5 hours ago, miketheavenger said:
I think Sing might be hurt by general animation fatigue. There can only be so many blockbusters of one genre in the same year and we've already had Zoomania, Pets and Dory this year (with Moana still to come).
Ice Age was near Blockbuster-Level, too.
I think it'll OK this weekend.
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5 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:
Well, that's great isn't it?
The last HP did - according to BOM - $78M. So I would consider $40M a good result. (I think it could do $35M to $45M, we will see how much it will be affected by RO and how much Holiday can help to boost it)
I'll hope for €40M because than it's joining this great list: http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm
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30.11 - 4.12
1 1.007.014 --- 1.056.536 1 Moana 2 457.726 -40 2.739.808 3 Fantastic Beasts 3 417.997 --- 417.997 1 Sully 4 205.226 -45 668.856 2 Allied 5 77.280 -40 244.394 2 La Fille de Brest 6 62.946 -40 431.086 3 Les Tetes de l'emploi 7 51.025 -47 846.097 4 Inferno 8 47.387 --- 47.387 1 Shut In 9 43.007 -34 472.515 4 Hacksaw Ridge 10 35.752 -48 1.171.090 5 Max et eon InsideKino
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Hm. So if FB isn't hit too hard by SWit still could do 3M... I'd say it'll hit that number
Hartmanns can do it, too.
Trolls, as the 27th movie of the year, crossed 1M admissions. Last year we had 33. 4 more will probably do it(Sing, SW, Vaiana, Vier gegen die Bank) so we're at 31. That's not that much less.
I do not have high hopes for the year, yet.
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5 hours ago, terrestrial said:
Oct 1 Saturday Armed Forces Day Observance Oct 3 Monday National Foundation Day National holiday Oct 9 Sunday Hangeul Proclamation Day National holiday Dec 21 Wednesday December Solstice Season Dec 24 Saturday Christmas Eve Observance Dec 25 Sunday Christmas Day National holiday Dec 31 Saturday New Year's Eve Observance So Christmas is a holiday in SK? Is that something special in Asia?
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37 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:
Sully is about the 9/11
Isn't it about the plane that came down on the Hudson River?
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12 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:
Of course, if you're only interested in records and blockbusters, then 2016 must be one of the most boring years in history
It's so frustrating to see every weekend down compared to the previous year
Sadly I missed the great years for Cinema in Germany... But so I missed the collapsing too, which probably isn't so bad
But I asked myself if this year can get 120M admissions... But when you're saying it wasn't that bad this year - maybe I have a false memory about it?
When I'm not mistaken the first quarter had about 14% less than last year (the second seems worse to me) and that 14% decrease would get the year to 119,7M. (Hopefully I'm mistaken
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1 760.086 -40 2.180.487 2 Phantastische Tierwesen FB still hasn't reached what some HP movies did on their OW... This series was really huge!
But for a Spinoff this makes good number, too.
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11 minutes ago, Giesi said:
That would mean RO would become the least attended year-end #1 movie since at least 1966, according to inside.kino! I hope RO can manage to reach a higher attendance number.
The next year can only get better
But really, 4,4M for the (probably) most attended movie of the year would be a disaster...
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Mark G has made his December forecast:
1 4,4M Rogue One 2 3,5M Sing 3 2,0M Vaiana 4 2,0M Vier gegen die Bank 5 0,8M Robbi, Tobbi und das Fliewatüüt 4,4M for RO would be disappointing to me... I hope for at least 5M admissions. The drop would be more than 50%
Maybe Vaiana can get a bit more than that - but for Sing 3,5M should be the roof. I don't think it'll do more than that even if it has the potential.
But I really hope that I can see Train to Busan, which will open 2nd December.
Does anybody know why the movies on the last weekend open to such strange dates? Vier gegen die Bank on Sunday and Assassin's on Tuesday? Or is it just to get as much as possible Holiday?
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FB 550k -33%/-40% 1,65M to 1,7M
Hartmanns 240k -41%
Why such a hard drop...
Trolls 65k -41% Should be near 1M, probably within 10k
DS 47,5k -55%
FD 27,5k -47%
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That should be the second biggest OW for FB of the year after Deadpool's 1.284.278.
How much could it end with? 3,5M?
Inferno does even worse here than in Germany...
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Final Trend:
FB 910k WOM seems great! About 825k for the Weekend, second after Dory's 875k (I hope that the $9,9M get $10M - I hoped for $10M
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WbdH 405k (-17%) 1,7M cume. Maybe next Weekend it can increase again...
Trolls 110k (-11%) This movie seems to have great WOM!
DS 105k (-46%) Strange drops harder and harder from Weekend to Weekend - but with FB arriving that's probably OK.
JR2 100k (-40%/-45%)
Petterson und Findus 65k (+6%)
Dory 50k (-31%) 3,7M cume, so - what I didn't expect - it still can outgross Pets (3,8M) and Zoo (3,82M).
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I just saw that Finding Dory has an extremely bad hold again! 30k (-58%)
So maybe 3,68M admissions until Sunday. 4M are dead, maybe even 3,8M. That sucks...
So there are probably only 3 movies now we can hope to get to 4M: FB (with 1M this weekend and good WOM - but probably there has to be much hope for this to happen
), Rogue One (for the moment I'm sure that this one will have more than 4M, I would say it'll get at least 5M) and WbdH (All is possible yet )
But what makes me really angry is the Euro - it's under 1,06$ now.
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Is a new one coming hence the background?
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by Aristis
I think the chance this makes less than 1B is very slim. A deciding factor will be Dom + China. Those two could make $450M or $700M (the last is probably unlikely but with $550M and $150M...)
IMO there is a big range from $400M/$550M/$950M to $550M/$700M/$1,25B. I see about $500M/$650M/$1,15B (So CA3 is still reachable
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SW7 had a Dom multipler of 3,8x. 3,5x $140M would bring this to $490M (Of course SW7 had great legs! But TH1 had 3,6 and TH2 had 3,5 so 3,5 should be reachable for a movie tht has better critical acclaim.
I made a list with (IMO) lowest and highest possible result but there are countries I don't really know which result this could have (France, Japan, Australia). Probably it's to soon to make such predictions accurate. But that's the fun
(I know GB should have $180M but for now I use this number)