Aristis
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Posts posted by Aristis
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10 hours ago, jb007 said:
+1
The problem with BvS is not negative media buzz but awful quality. I cannot remember a highly anticipated tent pole movie that pretty much failed in all ares of film making like BvS has done.
This movie opened big even with bad reviews. So that rules out the huge impact of bad reviews. What did BvS in was the terrible WOM.
OS it dropped 68% in the second weekend and 60% in the third weekend. That is just about as bad as I have seen for a big movie. No amount of laughable defense makes it any better. This may be the first big movie to probably end up with a less than 2 multiplier (Dom) or barely squeak past it.
These kind of drops are unheard of and it is not so because of some ridiculous conspiracy. Quality does matter, at least to some extent.
To open huge and fall quickly can happen when fans watch it at the first weekend and others are restrained from watching it because of its bad reviews. And are you sure that the movie is bad or is that only your (own) opinion? (Because there are people who liked it, me too
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Maybe some think it's bad because critics say it's bad (so they are movie-experts) or they really think it's bad and this movie divides. Nevertheless $850M is huge even if it's quite disappointing especially after its OW. They will make profit when all is over but less than expected. Some here seem to be exorbitant.
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Sunday: Zoo at 175K now (>30%) The other stuff stays flat
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Zootopia is now above 3M admissions as the first movie of the year.
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With 8.965.321 admissions and €101.819.720 SW7 is the most successfull SW-movie now.
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27 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:
Nice list ... had no idea "League of Extraordinary Gentlemen" had that many admissions, but I guess few people here knew this was a comic book. And if you look at DC and Marvel adaptions combined, it seems that 3mil total is a kind of ceiling for SH movies; only Batman on the DC side and Spiderman on Marvel's were ever able to break that barrier (except for the original Superman which was a bit of a media phenomenon in its days, but Supie got grounded fast with part 2)
I wouldn't have known that movies like Constantine or RED are Comics, too.
The jump from Batman Begins tho The Dark Knight is great!
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BvS is guaranteed to reach the 6th place. Will probably not reach 5th. Could end with 1.6M to 1.7M admissions ($20M to $22M)
Biggest DC movies in admissions:
1 79 4,2M Superman 2 12 3,3M The Dark Knight Rises 3 08 2,8M The Dark Knight 4 89 1,8M Batman 5 03 1,8M The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen 6 81 1,4M Superman II 7 95 1,3M Batman Forever 8 97 1,3M Batman & Robin 9 05 1,1M Constantine 10 16 1,1M Batman v Superman - Dawn of Justice 11 02 1,0M Road to Perdition 12 92 1,0M Batman Returns 13 05 0,9M Batman Begins 14 10 0,9M RED 15 13 0,8M Man of Steel -
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BvS and Zoo are still fighting for the 1st place (265k - 260k) BvS has a cume of about 1.13M admissions while Zoo has 2.87M now. (Far above my 2.75M prediction)
KFP still at 100k.
Ticketprice seems to be about 9,3$ now so $35M would require 3,75M admissions. Still doable.
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27 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:
About 57% drop Fri-Sun. 64% Thu-Sun.
Ok, thanks. Far better
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$35M for Zoo should be the goal now. Would require about 3.65M admissions which is really doable. Should be at 2.75M now.
Batman v Superman should land between $20M and $25M which would be far more than MoS ($9,8M) did.
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So weekend was about $5M and it was a >70% drop?
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1 minute ago, efialtes76 said:
An i don't know why...
I didn't see it but I don't like that sort of film so probably I could not understand it too.
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52 minutes ago, Quigley said:
Furious 7's drops last year were:
52.5% OS (excluding openers)
59.5% NA
so BvS's drops are clearly not just because of its opening falling on Easter weekend.
[EDIT]
HP&:P2 dropped 65.3% WW
Spider-Man 3 dropped 62.7% WW
Only HP6 dropped more (73.7%) but it opened on a Wednesday in NA and some other countries (which normally open on Fridays) so it's understandable
F7 was supported by critics...
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More than Maleficent with worse ER. $550M OS, $825M WW
Will be big in Europe
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14 hours ago, leatherjacket said:
Look around you, how much it dropped OS and domestic this weekend.
That's because of the bad press. It isn't that bad. I think it's unfairly discredited and so people think it's too bad to watch. It's not worse than movies like Thor which are upgraded.
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2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
On the bright side it's doing much better than in in most of the other large markets around the world.
I think in Germany there are seldom drops above 50% on the second weekend and if it's so then because of the weather. But Zoomania can hold much better and is a family movie so weather is not the issue. But yeah, in comparison to other countries it's good.
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BvS -53% (weekend only) -59% (with previews)
Zoo -23%
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Will $30M happen for Zootopia?
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I think the only bad thing about it is the excessive Action (Batman vs Superman fight; All against the Monster). These scenes took too long. But the idea of the movie, to show which results such powers can have and if it's allowed to use them without a democratic legitimisation, is more than good. It's lost sometimes a bit though... Less fight scenes and more story would have been better sometimes. So I hope the Extended cut doesn't show even more action and fight scenes.
The music was just perfect. Hans Zimmer is a genius! Beautiful Lie and the Lex Luthor theme are really powerful and wonderful pieces of music.
Sometimes it was a bit confusing but maybe that's intended (or it's just me
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I really really like Henry's Superman even if (sometimes) he seems a bit too sorrowful, maybe it's his character. I did not really like Batman (he appears very unlikeable to me). He led to one of the worst scenes in the movie when Superman wanted to talk to him and he did not hear until he was said Martha was Supermans mother, too. A bit unlikely. As a character I liked Alfred but as Alfred... Maybe after Michael Caine that was to different to me. Wonderwoman was cool and she wears such cool dresses! Lex Luthor was great to me even if others don't think so.
All in all it was a good movie, not a masterpiece though. But good enough to have at least 70% and A- . The rather subtle ending was pretty good. I liked it more than both Avengers (I really don't know why the first one was so well-liked
) Unfortunately it isn't strict with its issue which makes it a bit worse...
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Hopefully BvS will go up a bit, good weather will hurt the family stuff more. -25% for Zoo would be quite good considering the temperatures on Sat/Sun (20°-25° in some regions) Summer comes ^^
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$1,128,400,000 54.7%
= Worldwide: $2,062,472,722
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Best start ever for BvS (admissions from insidekino):
1 2.395.269 Batman v Superman 2 2.372.992 Avengers 2 -
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$270M/$420M/$690M possible after the weekend? Or even $700M?
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Anne Frank had the worst drop in the Top 20
I think this result is really unexpected and a bit disappointing...
Great for Zoo! Bad for Room... Its Oscar Win doesn't really help.
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But don't forget that ER in 2011 was extremely favorable. I don't know where DH2 is when it's calculated with todays ER.
If China and Japan make big amounts of money the movie is safe. But Japans DH2 gross would be about $35M less, GB $15M, Ger again $15M less and so on...
It really has potential to be big. But $1B is much even today. I think $250M/$600M/$850M should be safe unless it's totally crap. But it won't gross more than $300M/$850M/$1150M. I think Fantasy isn't as big as it was nowadays
But I could be wrong as many were with JW or SW
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)
) Unfortunately it isn't strict with its issue which makes it a bit worse...
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | 532m overseas | 851m Worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by Aristis
1. I still believe in my fans-on-first-weekend-theory
(It partly explains the big drops)
2. Frontloadness isn't inevitably a sign for a bad movie - could also follow a big hype (But if drops are that big you could argue that it does not appeal) But that leads to 3.
3. I'm not a psychologist but maybe the bad ratings by critics have an bad influence on "normal" moviegoers (would not explain why sometimes movies that are worse rated appeal to the audience) Could be wrong expectations. If you watch Transformers you know what you get. Maybe many expected something else.
4. But maybe, because I don't understand why it is that disliked because I liked it, I try to find explanations to me that are - maybe - unrealistic.
But I think this movie can't be that bad that it explains the drops.