johnboy3434

Saturday was $22.2 million.

Revising my weekend estimate in light of this: Sunday - $13.5 million SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL - $51 million That's a 63.1% drop, sans Thursday pre-shows. That's bad, since the "normal" drop was 55.6%, but nowhere near as bad as it could be.

Alternatively, I shouldn't have been using it for that in the first place. A model based on eight points of data can't be reliably used to forecast 55 more points. One or two is about as far as I should have gone. I was just curious what it thought the final result would be based on what we had thus far.

The $379 million domestic gross is the "average" or "typical" gross. If the movie's performance was exactly what CotT and F7 indicated it would be, given a $53.9 million opening day, then the movie would be expected to end up with $379 million. However, obviously, it is not performing exactly as the past would indicate, and my time series model is attempting to forecast a trend for its future behavior based on its over- or under-performance relative to the "average" each day. Under that forecast, as it stands right now, the movie will end with $285 million. I believe that number will raise once the drops start to level out a bit, but until then I can't correct it.

I'm not using 70% every day. I'm taking an average of the day-to-day percent changes from Clash of the Titans and Furious 7, and combining them with the gross from BvS's opening Friday (sans Thursday pre-shows) to form a blueprint for a hypothetical "average" box office run.* Then I ratio the actual for each day to its "average" counterpart. The ratios for each day form my time series, which I then have software determine a model for, and use that model to forecast ratios for future days, from which I can calculate daily grosses. *For those curious, this "average" run ended with a domestic gross of $379 million.

Yeah, my forecast based on the current performance has it falling less like a rock and more like a crashing fighter jet. I think it's overly pessimistic, but then again I only have eight data points to work with, which is less than ideal for statistical modeling.

So, I'm doing some really heavy extrapolating, but at the current rate of underperformance, my calculations have BvS's final domestic gross at $285 million.

There's no direct correlations like that. In a letter, Tolkien said that nothing in LotR was allegorical, but that the fundamental ethics and worldview behind it were very much Christian, and Catholic in particular. In my opinion, that's the best way to handle the religious aspect of a story: Show, don't tell. In fact, the only aspect of the entire mythos that is clearly allegorical are the conflation of Eru with God, Melkor with Satan, and the various lower spirits with angels.

Well, since Friday underperformed my already-modest projection ($16.1 million), time to recalculate my time series forecast. Saturday - $19.4 milliion Sunday - $11.5 million Second Weekend Total - $46.2 million

Well, it's past midnight. Where's our estimates, damn it?!

The two films most comparable to BvS had an average second-weekend drop of 58%. In my view, a 58% drop is the turning point for "bad/good": If the weekend gross is less than $69.7 million, it's a bad drop. If it's more than that, it's a good drop.

There's other, smaller markets that aren't itemized in that list, and not all of the individual countries are as up-to-date as the total. BOM can only list a specific country's box office if it gets that specific country's information. They can't extrapolate it from the total.

Well, it overperformed my Thursday estimate ($7.74 million actual versus my $7.53 million projection), so time for a recalculation. Again, this is based on the day-to-day changes for Furious 7 and Clash of the Titans, which, despite all the fanboy dick-measuring about Marvel and DC, are the actual movies we should be comparing this to. Friday - $16.8 million Saturday - $22.5 million Sunday - $14.1 million SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL - $53.4 million

Okay, real talk: BvS has broken three records of note. 1.) Biggest Easter Opening 2.) Biggest March Opening (Unadjusted) 3.) Biggest Spring Opening (Unadjusted) When adjusted for inflation, The Hunger Games takes the latter two. Breaking it down by genre, by franchise, and by both weekday and month (as opposed to one or the other) is narrowing the field to the point where breaking the record carries no real merit.

Well, I figure I might as well contribute. Here's my calculations for the rest of this week, based on the day-to-day performances of Furious 7 and Clash of the Titans. Thursday - $7.53 million Friday - $16.4 million Saturday - $21.9 million Sunday - $13.7 million SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL - $52 million And here's a second projection based on the week-to-week performance of the same two movies. Friday - $24.5 million Saturday - $26.9 million Sunday - $16.6 million SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL - $68 million The former is more in line with BoxOffice.com's estimate of $55 million, and is still closer to BOM's estimate than the latter, so I tend to believe it a bit more.

I'm sorry, but did you just imply that being a professional wrestler takes no athletic prowess? On what basis do you make this accusation? Because I can tell you right, it's not even remotely accurate. The fact that it's not a real competition doesn't make the laws of momentum hurt any less.

What's your view on Cinemascore?

Fun trivia: If BvS were to have the worst second-weekend drop ever (83.6%, beating Jane Got a Gun), it would make roughly $27.2 million. That's still more than GND2 is projected to make this weekend.