YM!

Now, this is actual overreaction, stop this shit. They literally can’t remove the scene this far out, also bigots should be like the last of their concern. Lightyear didn’t flop because of bigoted snowflake conservatives but a combination of looking very unappealing and families having been a bit conditioned to the plus.

Shit, my 12 year old little cousin has been asking me since literally the day after we saw The Bad Guys when it was as coming to streaming. He was confused on why it wasn’t there either a few weeks later.

Note: I do think Minions 2 will open to 60m+, it does well with audiences at my theater, shorter so it can have multiple runtimes and Illumination uses the money for marketing instead of for creativity, story and talent and it pays off.

I mean to be fair Disney+ not only has a larger base than HBO Max but also appeals primarily for families. It’s easier for WB to buck that trend mainly because their brands aren’t as big.

Ratatouille Coco The Incredibles Toy Story 2 Wall-E Soul Luca Monsters Inc Toy Story 3 Turning Red Inside Out Toy Story 4 Up Finding Nemo Toy Story Finding Dory Onward Cars 3 Cars 2 Monsters University Incredibles 2 Lightyear The Good Dinosaur A Bugs Life Cars Brave Here is my Pixar ranking to pivot the discussion.

My main fear is basically Chapek and the other dude who gets to decide on what’s theatrical and once not use pandemic habits as it excuse. Note: I don’t think theatrical animation going to streaming is good (I’m a huge fan, and 2023 looks like a major rebound year. The decision like you said is highly shortsighted and doomed to backfire both creatively and financially) and Lightyear’s underperformance didn’t come from families not showing up but the movie looked really unappealing.

Luca forward in the future and I think they’ll rebound. Hopefully they don’t make an elemental mistake of doing day and date or streaming. It’d be a dark and strange world if so.

With the underperformance of Lightyear, i feel pretty confident Across the Spider Verse at best will do just about the same as ITSV or a slightly increase domestically.

TOG we must be encourage positivity at all costs even if reality and logic disagree.

Soul, Luca and Turning Red would’ve all been bigger hits, in the no Covid timeline. Soul - 105m/320m Luca - 60m/250m Turning Red - 65m/210m Lightyear - 50m/160m

I’m glad they’re actually doing a LGBTQ romance for one of the main characters in this. Glad to see Disney trying to go down the right direction after years of micromanaging for their feature films.

There’s a small chance TGM could outdo Lightyear this week if Lightyear’s multiple isn’t strong enough.

Though to be fair Lightyear’s flopping is more due to being unappealing as no one wants a Lightyear movie. I think if the other past three Pixar movies got theatrical releases with no Covid, Lightyear would easily be the lowest of the four. It seemed like a Lego Batman/Detective Pikachu performance seemed kind of obvious (though I was expecting larger numbers due to Pixar) after the first trailer blew up and was kind of meme’d. I do think maybe WDAS and Pixar could see budget cuts and I think some films will go theatrical (definitely don’t think the theatrical animation is doomed as I’m positive Minions will outdo Lightyear because kids seem to respond well to the trailers and even with fatigue Minions had far better marketing but there’s a lot of potential big animations next year) but I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if more direct to Disney+ release or day and date from risky films in the future mainly because Bob Chapek is totally short sided enough to do it.

Yeah be happy with the powerful 175m best case scenario, it’s just under Sonic 2.

Guys 5.2m is a resounding success, it’ll do a a whopping 10x multiple at best. It’s doing a 50m opening at best, look at how powerful that is even though another family film did like $73m opening a few months ago. It’s doing over Sing 2, so we should be happy. Forget about the fact that it’s looking likely to not do 200m domestic or 400m worldwide (the latter of which would be under Sing 2). Theaters would be happy one of the supposed biggest hit of the summer is a wet fart at the box office. And if you think any ramifications comes from Lightyear’s performance for Disney/Pixar or if it’s cause for concern you are a hater. Be blindly happy.

It’s doing over Sing 2, so we should be happy. Forget about the fact that it’s looking likely to not do 200m domestic or 400m worldwide (the latter of which would be under Sing 2).

My showing was like 1/3 full in the PLF and the other showings were barren.

I believe Comcast said it and Minions would get a slightly longer window, like how Bad Guys got 70 days.

Far easier sell to the GA, less reliant on presales determining a good OW, skews probably much more younger and more female than Lightyear ergo more accessible and better for legs, the trailer plays well with audiences when I see it in movies, the forth of July weekend is very lucrative to Illuminations in the past, Illumination uses the fort that should be used for storytelling in its marketing and if Lightyear underperforms it’s more of a benefit to it. I’d be more surprised if it did under 200m than Lightyear at this point which judging from presales seems more and more like an underperformer.

Honestly don’t give a shit about the movie, I just hope Ezra gets the help they need and everyone is safe.

Do you honestly think that in the hypothetical scenario in which Lightyear underperforms (sub 60m/sub 200m/sub 500), Chapek wouldn’t use it as a justification for sending their 200m budgeted animations (whereas unlike The Bad Guys and Sonic 2, their budgets are low enough for the grosses to be satisfactory) to streaming and would settle for “We beat Sing 2, right…”, especially when it’s obvious he’s been wanting to do it for months now? I don’t think anyone is justifying or think this move is a good move at all, but it’s not unlikely to see Chapek try to pull it off. That said, theatrical animation still has an obvious pulse as I’m confident Minions 2 will explode and I think if Lightyear does underperform it’s because the movie looks unappealing to the GA not necessarily families not coming back but maybe I could see budgets being trimmed within the next few years to compensate. I also don’t think necessarily it’s the end for Disney or Pixar animations theatrically and I also agree that doing straight to plus is a lose lose for all parties (studios, creatives, theaters, etc) and a bad move but I can see a Luca/Soul/TR situation happen more frequently than not in the scenario because of how reactionary Hollywood studios can be and how much Chapek wants to boost Disney Plus.

If Lightyear doesn’t do over 60m this weekend, I don’t see how anything less can be spun as a positive.

Maybe ImNotHomophobicAtAll would be a more subtle name for them lol.

Half and half split, Dominion loses mornings but keeps evenings, except for preview night I think.