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MrGlass2

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MrGlass2 last won the day on December 11 2018

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  1. I mean, it is reportedly the present in Germany. And the only way to follow the suggestion above:
  2. I meant, in the US: 1k deaths/day for months seems unlikely. Not necessarily, and probably not anywhere close to ~50% of the peaks. (And it is not what this model predicts for Europe anyway)
  3. Why would deaths see a plateau for months? This hasn't happened anywhere (at such a high level) so far. I think it will continue to decline, then we can worry about a second wave.
  4. Which network TV show hit a series high? I'm looking at This is Us, Grey's Anatomy, The Flash; they all seem down from last year even in March/April, or at best flat (and of course, way down from their peak).
  5. TV ratings have been declining for years, but even during lockdown they were so low. Last Tuesday Stargirl debuted on the CW with a 0.3 in the demo, and it wasn't even that bad. The most-watched shows that night were reality "hits" Masked Singer and The Voice, both at 0.9 - nothing at 1+. If network TV couldn't get a boost from people staying home during a pandemic, many unemployed... the future remains bleak.
  6. One last thing about the (small) groups in parks: in cities, there are many single young people living alone. What are they supposed to do after countries start to "reopen"; only go to work, watch TV then go to bed - for a year? This isn't realistic or, frankly, desirable. That is why you can't really blame people for trying to have a life when the government message switches from "Stay Home" to "Stay Safe". Going to the park with your close friends is probably the least "dangerous" social gathering you can do. It is certainly much better than drinking with them in your small apartment. The good news is that most states seem to do just that, and have set up tracing teams. Bad news, they're doing it at the last minute and with zero federal coordination (for now, I am sure Trump will get to it eventually then claim credit). Yet it may be enough: the same thing is happening in many European countries like the UK or France. Denmark started this kind of systematic tracing only in April, "reopened" one month ago and for now it looks like amateur "Tracing for Dummies" is much better than no tracing at all.
  7. How, by looking from your window or scrolling through Twitter? Opinion surveys are much more reliable. Another way to measure it, for Canada: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-05-16_CA_Mobility_Report_en.pdf Retail&Recreation: -40% Grocery: -9% Parks: +62% Transit: -47% Workplaces: -30% Places of residence: +10% Google Mobility report is less useful than a scientific survey, but it sure looks like Canadians are either staying home or going to parks/beaches - outdoor locations where contagion is less likely. In any case the general situation is far from normal, they are not "letting nature decide" even after months of social distancing.
  8. Absolutely not, opinion surveys in pretty much every country say the opposite. Twitter isn't real life.
  9. It is a bad trend to take pictures every time you see people outside, or get angry about it on Twitter. This isn't the main or more important reason some countries are having tragic outbreaks. Government policies matter far more, and after all people can't stay locked inside forever (or more than a couple of months).
  10. China reports no new cases for the first time in pandemic Not sure how these mass tests in Wuhan will work out, it could lead to a crazy number of false positives:
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