Rumpot
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Posts posted by Rumpot
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12 minutes ago, M37 said:
I agree with this a possibility and how it could/would get there, but to project it from OD is a bit … extra. Like I’m not even ready to say $400M is better than 50/50
Nah, this is o/u 450M and 500M is probably not even one SD off base case in a reasonable mental model. The rooting to what the first movie did and then the below average CBM multiple narratives being pushed are silly. The appeal is wide as the lore is taking hold. It'll have the fanatics watching it multiple times as well as the broad viewership of an animated movie in summer
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This is not meant to take anything away from Mario, but Spider-Man is a far more saturated character in non-game media. That the animated version is working on the level of live action is pretty crazy, especially with another on the way in March. They've created a second and probably third Spider-Man persona on top of the original (Peter Parker) that people legitimately care about...no small feat!
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Tomorrow could still be really special if this plays like a true hybrid CBM + kids movie. @TwoMisfits
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Hello friends! Why would people think this is going to be so frontloaded? It doesn't come off of a cliff-hanger and it isn't the final movie in its own trilogy. On top of that it's animation....
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1 minute ago, sfran43 said:
Guess it reached that 110M he was boldly predicting
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Given the opening weekend levels internationally, including countries that are good proxies for the US one can assume the different that is likely due to next weekend being Thanksgiving. After Black Friday I think we will see things differently. And ~130M is great anyway
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F2 is doing very well in Virginia FWiW. Even the RealD showings largely filling up. Looks like a pretty monstrous Saturday around here anyway
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6 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:
Besides I don't think there's anything to be sad on our side. If Cinemas prove to be less economically feasible to paying public, it is substituted by an cheaper alternative which happens to be more beneficial to studios, eliminating middleman that is theatres or in some cases Netflix/Prime.
Every thing dies, watches/camera/calculator die or almost die due to rise of smartphones and so on. Circus died for cinemas and TVs.
It's nature.
This is different in the sense it replaces a social experience with pure consumption. This isn't just consolidation of hardware
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45 minutes ago, Barnack said:
I doubt they are specially a Disney that can put billion's dollars movies in theater (endGame box office rental is how many users month of Disney+) ?
Has of now streaming - youtube - loosing time on Internet other ways, really did hurt regular live TV way more than theater, last year 41.1 billion was the biggest year ever and streaming was extremely popular in 2018.
Agreed. Direct to streaming is still very much unproven as far as the economics eventually working out. Don't let the stock market convince you differently.
Theater release of a successful movie can offer tremendous returns immediately AND advertise the eventual streaming release. That said the box office studios are independent...and to think they would come together to save the box office...I just don't know. But they absolutely should.
If theaters disappear then Disney better hope Star Wars and Marvel stay popular forever. Which we know very well will not happen.
(not to mention a similarly wonderful economic situation Disney risks disrupting further when it comes to the cable bundle)
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2 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:
Moderation: Frozenheart has already been warned by mods for concern trolling in this thread. Defending him or attacking others is unproductive. Please drop that topic and move on.
Thank You
I haven't posted in over a year (I think) but I accept this judgement as quite fair! It says something when a person who doesn't post (me) feels annoyed enough that they are compelled to. Anyway, thanks. And...nice to see you as a moderator (dunno when that happened, but seems a good choice)
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39 minutes ago, frozenheart1993 said:
I see all your statistics, F2 is behind TS4 in the same period, I don't know what she might get 120M OW
I guess if there are people who simply pine for the movie to flop due to some distorted internal mechanism by which this gives them pleasure then have at it...
In the end, you're missing out. There'll be people who watch the movie and enjoy it. There'll be people who analyze the box office of the movie and enjoy it. And unfortunately you're going to miss all that to instead follow some hollow compulsion to annoy people with no payoff
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3 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:
It was great, I love how they basically created a genre in arthouse action. That said, best movie of the year? And even more to the point, one of the best films of the decade? Everyone is entitled to their opinions but thats a little too over the top and jeez does that do a disservice to some really great films. The John Wick films are top of the line action films to be sure, but if how well choreographed a film's action scenes are determines its quality then yea, cinema really is dead and we killed it
JW3 is the best movie of all time and it's obvious that you think so too
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IW made 16M on 3rd Friday so from here on would expect slightly worse legs than IW. Probably gonna finish 830-840M range in that case. IW made 130M after this weekend so I think 115-120 for EG likely
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So the slew of people on here who said 300M is "impossible" ......a lesson that sometimes "impossible" is only a perception due to your own narrow mind and not an objective thing. Don't be boring.
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In my opinion, if someone completely random hurts your enjoyment on a movie forum on a consistent basis then block/ignore them. Not saying to ignore someone just because they don't agree with you as that's not a big deal...but some people are literally here to annoy you as their primary goal. This isn't Thanksgiving with the extended family or your workplace where you have to just take it....don't let someone random hurt your experience on a forum you come to for mutual information/enjoyment/escape from the grind.
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Why in the world are there people here who haven't banned Thrylos?....do it now...you'll regret waiting if you still haven't banned him by Saturday
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1 hour ago, excel1 said:
INFINITY WAR is the only Marvel film to open above expectations in a dogs age.
Thinking we're looking at the $270-275 range; $300m = impossible
Aw man I wanted to be the one who stands out by something that is quite likely is actually impossible. Congrats
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I'm still waiting/hoping someone has an explanation for how Harry Potter DH2 made 43M from only midnight showings in 2011. Anyone?
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Really expected to like Shazam. It had aspects I liked well enough, but overall I was disappointed when it ended. Maybe because it's aimed at a younger group
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1 hour ago, captainwondyful said:
I don’t think we will truly know that for another week or so. The amount of tickets it sold yesterday is AMAZING... and expected. The hardcore fanbase has been clamoring for them for weeks, AND they are super late compared to other MCU films. So props to Disney Marketing for creating that frenzy and snatching those headlines. (Would have perferred you did it in a way that didn’t crash the Fandago Tracker, but you do you.)
Based the hard data I have on my small market, and the eye ball estimates of NYC and LA, I suspect we are looking at End Game being SUPER frontloaded. The rush to see this without getting spoiled is real. Thursday is basically gone, but Sunday is still wide open at the theaters I’ve been tracking.
If I had to go into the Box Office Casino thread right now, I would be betting on AEG beating the TFA “Friday” Single Day Record instead of it besting AIW’s OW.
I am still not feeling the 300M hype. 250M is the floor, imho. Marvel’s going to need one of their marvelous Saturdays for that OW record. Depending on how it ends, you might not have repeat hardcore viewers on OW to push it over the record. (They both live, right TalismanRing 🤞) On the other hand, by Sunday you might have some casuals showing up just to be part of the hoopla. (My aunt at Dumbo yesterday did ask me when it was safe for the laymen to go 😂)
The one thing I am no longer concerned about is screen space. At in my local market, we are already over IW’s screen count.
Also, alas, because...
We did not have a Fandago showing in our area.
Thursday Shazam IMAX has sold: 16/432. And only 2 tickets out of the non IMAX showings.
So, I would say no. I think Shazam (and Hellboy) is the causality of being in the middle of a Marvel perfect storm. And that is a shame. It looks cute. WB should have moved it up to February.
How does 300M hype feel compared to 250M hype? The last time I "felt" 300M hype was the movie Greta...that did not turn out to be the case.
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18 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
This. Dumbo felt like a filler not like an event. Aladdin doesn't feel like an event either (too much in the shadow of TLK which wouldn't happen if it had the year all for itself) but it's positioned to do far better than Dumbo cause more known especially OS. Only TLK feels like an event. They should have just released that one.
It IS filler. But it's meant as filler for Disney streaming. Unlike Netflix Disney will have back "most" of the money for this piece of streaming content at the theater upfront though. I think people are failing to see the power of this business model. And of course the Disney ecosystem us built to monetize 10 different other ways.
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1 hour ago, baumer said:
Spent the day at the theatre. Saw three movies and liked them all.
First was Gloria Bell. Excellent film for people my age. Julianne Moore should get an Oscar nomination for this one. Turturro was good too. Great cast and a terrific story of the difficulties of dating post divorce.
Second was Hotel Mumbai. Powerful but bleak film about true events. Almost brought me to tears.
Third was Dumbo. The beginning was bothersome because of the assholes in the story but it's a good movie with a strong message about how barbaric it is to animals in captivity. Enjoyed this one.
That's what I liked most about Dumbo too.
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Weekdays Thread (6/5-8)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
EC correcting to 12.75m+