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Everything posted by MaxAggressor
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From Deadline: This weekend added $17.7M overseas for a $484M international cume. Holds have a rather smoldering intensity in such markets as South Africa (-20%), Spain (-22%), the UAE (-24%), Australia (-25%), Germany (-27%), the Netherlands (-33%), France (-34%), Mexico (-34%), the UK (-35%), and Brazil (-35%). In all this session, Dwayne Johnson, Jack Black, Kevin Hart and Karen Gillan were playing on 10,800 screens in 92 markets. The current Top 5 hubs are China ($72.4M – slowing with increased competition in the market), the UK ($46.3M), Australia ($34.8M), France ($26.1M) and Russia($24.7M). Jumanji 2 is Sony's 5th biggest movie of all time atm. SM:H, Spectre & SM-3 are toast as J2 is definitely going past 900 million. So #2 (behind Skyfall) in Sony's all time list is guaranteed (domestic and WW). On the international front, J2 is likely going to finish at #6 (Skyfall, Spectre, SM-3,SM:H & Da Vinci Code). The release in Japan is going to be long wait- Where the ultimate tally lands will depend on how things go in Japan which releases April 6.
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With NATM legs (3.55 x 6th weekend) from here on out J2 will get to 396.37 million. Let's assume it'll have a mini collapse (BP takes steam off J2's domestic BO run next month) and achieve a 3.2 multiplier after the 6th weekend, then it'll finish with 390.5 million. I'm not sure about the OS figure, but 1.5 times the most recent weekend (China will cease to make a significant contribution) doesn't seem a long shot. So (1.5x17.7) gets the OS total up-to [484+26.5]=510.5 million. World-wide total becomes [390.5+510.5]=801 million. It still hasn't opened in Japan yet so J2 should easily clear 900 million.
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COCO | 597.4 M overseas ● 807.1 M worldwide
MaxAggressor replied to kayumanggi's topic in International Box Office
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Wow. That Saturday number for Jumanji 2 means there's a strong possibility for 16 million this weekend if it follows the pattern set during the previous weekends. 7.6 million on Saturday is J2's biggest Fri-Sat increase in the 4 weekends of 2018 Weekend 3 - 47.2% Weekend 4 - 96.3% Weekend 5 - 95.2% Weekend 6 - 101.3% Plus J2 will also get it's biggest Saturday bump on NATM in 2018 Sat. of Weekend 3 - +50.9% Sat. of Weekend 4 - +60.7% Sat. of Weekend 5 - +55.4% Sat. of Weekend 6 - +66.1% The respective Sun. bumps for J2 w.r.t NATM in 2018 Sun. of Weekend 3 - +73.3% Sun. of Weekend 4 - +81.1% Sun. of Weekend 5 - +83.6% A 73.3% bump over NATM's 2.73 million 6th Sunuday gives J2 a 4.7 million Sunday. That would also mean a Sat-Sun drop of 38.11%. NATM dropped 40.7% on the same day. So giving J2 a similar drop would mean a 4.5 million Sunday figure. The first scenario gets J2 over 16 million for the weekend while the 2nd scenario means a 15.9 million weekend for the movie. I did not even consider the possibility that J2 may actually hold better on Sun. and show similar better bumps w.r.t NATM like it did on Friday and Saturday.
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In the last 3 Tuesdays, J2 was up by 3rd Tuesday - +189.4% 4th Tuesday - +192.6% 5th Tuesday - +200.7% So it's actually trending upwards J2 also increased way better on New Year's Eve Weekend and held slightly better on MLK weekend w.r.t NATM. Maybe President's Day+Valentine's Day Weekend will buck that trend what with BP opening. But history does suggest that J2 has exceeded expectations on the holiday weekends. So I wouldn't bet against J2 atm. It might just drop relatively well that weekend and still remain on course for NATM-lite legs after that weekend.
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I checked J2's last 4 Friday against NATM's corresponding Friday and it looks like J2 will outpace the 3 previous Friday increments by a good margin. Fri. of Weekend 3 - +51.25% Fri. of Weekend 4 - +46.12% Fri. of Weekend 5 - +56.79% Fri. of Weekend 6 - +66.59% The whole weekend itself is also going to be J2's best w.r.t NATM's corresponding weekend in 2018 Weekend 3 - +56.81% Weekend 4 - +63.74% Weekend 5 - +62.39% Weekend 6 - +65.32% J2 will continue to reign supreme until FSF & BL drops in consecutive weekends next month. But will J2 be able to post significant numbers on and after Feb. 9th??