MaxAggressor

https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/946418347968643072 STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI $21.5M Wednesday $444.9M Total (North America) #StarWarsTheLastJedi #StarWars #TheLastJedi #BoxOffice

Is that good, bad or 0k?? Is it doing good enough considering the new openers (DH2 & MOTOE) and the the holdovers (Ragnarok & ABMC) are all looking quite robust after a great weekend.

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/3478-japan-wknd-actuals-batb-looking-at-100m-usd/?do=findComment&comment=3243658 Good news from Olive over at the Japan BO thread. So how much are we looking at?? 10x multiplier in Japan. So 16 million coming off of a 1.6 million OW?? That would be absolutely amazing. 'IT' is again coming outta nowhere and killing it at the BO.

I hope the social media embargo lift contributed to some urgency in ticket sales. Next step is the actual full review embargo and if it goes over well (Rated Fresh) with reviewers and it does sway those folks who are still on the fence about giving JL a chance, maybe we'll see some spike in ticket sales. Plus the final stretch should naturally see bigger ticket sales anyway so I'm still hoping JL will open closer to 150 million. But the tracking info from EC does not bode well for the OW even with a late impetus.

From WOKJ: It came in second place and achieved one of the biggest debuts for any horror film. I can recall one or two Sadako (Ring) films opening higher this decade, and there's probably a couple other horror films from last decade that it trailed, but it's mighty impressive. I'll do some research to see how it compares to other horror films; I'm thinking it's a Top 5 debut for the horror genre. OW actuals from Japan were 1.62 million. Another big win for 'IT'. The performance of the movie in Asian countries has been been 0k to good for the most part and there's room for improvement for the sequel. I hope this one has done an excellent job to create a platform from where the sequel can potentially breakout in the Asian countries.

Thanks for the clarification.

Ragnarok was consistently between (65-70)% range of Vol 2 before the Wednesday of it's release. So JL being 25% ahead of Thor 3 means it's currently pacing at around 128 million. But do we know where Vol 2 was 9 days before it's release?? Because we're comparing Vol 2's final pre-sales with JL's pre-sales 9 days out, no??. We have real time data against Ragnarok and BvS from Grim22's latest update. JL is pacing ahead of BvS and the latter was 2nd only to CW in terms of pre-sales (92% of CW's final pre-sales). So it's seems like a good number this far out.

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/theater-chain-amc-entertainment-loss-box-office-1202608347/ Citing lousy box office performance, AMC Entertainment Holdings has reported a third-quarter loss of $42.7 million, compared with earnings of $30.4 million for the 2016 quarter. AMC made the announcement after the stock market closed Monday afternoon. Shares fell 9% in afterhours trading on the New York Stock Exchange to $11.10, down $1.10. “We have been predicting weakness in the third quarter industry box office, due to the quantity and subject matter of the films that were scheduled to be released,” said Adam Aron, president and CEO. “Not surprisingly, our foreshadow was accurate.”

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/926114016111546369 THOR: RAGNAROK earned est. ￥7.9M ($1.2M) from Thursday midnight screenings. They also followed the above tweet with this https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/926115741597921280 It's ok. $45-$50M opening weekend, $90-$95M total...

So it's lower (22.4m<<25m) than what POTUS extrapolated earlier. Hmm. The OD needs to be 4.5x PS to hit 100m. Is it doable?? Also, what does those two acronyms (GS & KM) stand for?? Edit: Haha. Just realized they must be Geostorm and Kingsman 2.

Which ones are you talking about?? I know most of Nolan's films get an extended IMAX stay but what other films from WB get that kind of privilege?? Also I don't know if there is any contractual obligation for IMAX to screen WB movies for an extended period of time so can you provide a link or any source for that?? Are you talking about this http://deadline.com/2016/10/warner-bros-agrees-offer-12-new-films-imax-1201838952/ If you're talking about that deal, isn't it pretty much par for the course for any major studio with big releases?? The IMAX CEO seemed happy with the deal. If you're talking about the bombs like 'Pan', 'In the heart of the Sea' or 'King Arthur', then yes they didn't do diddly squat and IMAX didn't make bank from those titles but WB didn't exert any pressure on IMAX to show them in the premium screens or keep them for a sustained period of time, did they?? They were just part of a simple deal already in place. Were those bombs a big deal so much so that IMAX will feel cheated by WB?? Did those movies prevent other big releases around the same time from getting shown in the premium screens?? I'm curious.

Yeah, 2019 will see the culmination of Avengers and it'll also mark the end of the new SW trilogy. Plus all the big live-action remakes of their animation catalogue will be done and dusted by the end of 2019. They'll probably see a drop after that. But I'm sure they have some plans for the post-2019 marketplace. They are really big, they'll find a way.

Disney is the most powerful studio atm and they are going to save the BO in December. They'll provide a lot of damage control for all the flops in Summer and early Fall. It makes sense that Disney will try to leverage their great situation with SW. Might as well capitalize on the highest grossing movie of the year (by default). But I had no clue about the stuff you mentioned. Damn, that's brutal. Not cool Disney. Not cool at all.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-lays-down-the-law-for-theaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603 Before exhibitors can begin screening “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” this December, they must first commit to a set of top-secret terms that numerous theater owners say are the most onerous they’ve ever seen. Disney will receive about 65% of ticket-sales revenue from the film, a new benchmark for a Hollywood studio. Disney is also requiring theaters to show the movie in their largest auditorium for at least four weeks. Ignoring the terms carries an unusual penalty. If a theater violates any condition of the distribution agreement, Disney can charge it an additional 5%, bringing the studio’s total haul to 70% of sales on a movie likely to gross more than $500 million at the domestic box office. That dynamic has exhibitors across the country resigning themselves to a new condition of doing business: If you want to play Disney’s blockbuster movies, get used to Disney’s rules. “They’re in the most powerful position any studio has ever been in, maybe since MGM in the 1930s,” said one film buyer. Few operators can afford to turn away a Disney windfall. But some independent theaters have decided not to screen “Last Jedi” when it’s released, saying the company’s disproportionate share of ticket sales and four-week hold make little economic sense—especially in small towns. “There’s a finite number of moviegoers in my market, and I can service all of them in a couple of weeks,” said Lee Akin, who operates a single-screen theater in Elkader, Iowa (population: 1,213). Toward the end of a monthlong run, Mr. Akin said he would be unable to swap in more popular titles and instead have to play “Last Jedi” to near-empty auditoriums—while still giving Disney 65% of those paltry sales. The studio is applying the 65% split across all weeks of the film’s release, rather than some studios’ practice of beginning a split at a high figure and then lowering it in subsequent weeks. Disney’s rules on “Star Wars” begin before tickets go on sale online, when the studio outlines presale terms to theaters in contracts that are individually watermarked to prevent exhibitors from leaking them. Previous “Star Wars” installments gave Disney 64% of ticket sales and included four-week holds, and other releases from the studio usually require theaters to commit to a minimum of two weeks of screenings. But Disney’s 5% penalty for not meeting terms on “Last Jedi” is unusual. The charge will be implemented for various violations, including if a theater pulls even one “Star Wars” screening from its schedule or begins marketing the movie before Disney gives the OK, according to theater operators. The four-week hold in a theater’s largest auditorium, meanwhile, has frustrated distribution executives at rival studios that also have major releases hitting theaters around Christmastime. Soon after the “Last Jedi” opens on Dec. 15, movies such as Sony Pictures Entertainment Inc.’s “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” and Twentieth Century Fox’s “The Greatest Showman” will begin jockeying for screen times. Twentieth Century Fox’s owner, 21st Century Fox Inc., and Wall Street Journal parent News Corp share common ownership.

Ragnarok's range [(65-70)% of Vol 2] has been fairly consistent for a long time. Zeesoh made a very good comparison earlier between the pre-sales and the final OW from Grim22's data and the correlation was very high with only one outlier (Deadpool). Vol 2's sales were 8.3 against CA:CW's 10 and Vol 2's OW was 81.8% of CA:CW. So if Ragnarok is at the higher end of the range we have seen so far, it can potentially gross 102.6 on OW. OTOH, Deadline updated their projection from 110 million to 125 million for the upper limit of the OW a week before release. That's a very good 13.6% increase from previous numbers. Adding that to the 'pre-sales to OW' converted figure, we'll get around 117 million. This is me purely trying to make a case for Ranarok opening to bigger numbers as I have no idea if Grim22's pre-sales figure will be (or has ever been) off or not. Plus DeeCee and aabattery's projection of the domestic OW based on the OW's of Aus/NZ also seems to point to an OW which is north of 120 million. So let's see if Ragnarok picks up pace in the next few days. Vol 2 must have been no slouch in the final stretch so odds are against Ragnarok atm but great reviews, outstanding performance in social media metrics and more pre-release hype (anecdotal) should bode well for the movie for a very good OW.

Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $323,868,540 48.6% + Foreign: $342,700,000 51.4% = Worldwide: $666,568,540 Final 8th weekend figure is 6.1 million [-54.5%] and the OS total after the 8th weekend is 342.7 million.

I have no clue how the break even point calculations are carried out. Another forum I frequent regularly used that formula as a rule of thumb to estimate the break even points of BvS & Skwad. I was just using that as an example. You are the first person to actually give me a proper insight into how these things work That's interesting. So the break even point calculation is more dependent on the first gross deals/profit sharing after tax deductions. I thought it'll be the marketing expense that'll make or break a movies' chances at the BO. I assume the participation bonus money for the talents involved in a project are never revealed unless there is a leak. So it's kind of impossible to come to a conclusion when it comes to break even point calculation. Thanks for clearing it up. I had a terrible misconception on how these things work. That movie must've had solid to great HV sales and also gotten a good price from TV rights deal for that 50 million gross profit. Also if the movie turned in a 50 million profit, that must be a very good ROI. Thanks. I imagine that P&A cost is significantly bigger for the tent-poles/franchise movies. So what should we be looking at for a DC/Marvel/Star Wars movie when it comes the P&A budget?? 150m+?? Or are they even bigger??

I didn't know that the tax reimbursements are not 100%, so thanks for that info on tax credits. BTDubz, any comps for the world-wide marketing expense?? Also what do you think the break even point for a movie like this will be?? Do we use the general rule of thumb like the [2 x (prod. budget+P&A cost)] for the break even point estimation or is there a better way to go about it??

Shouldn't the budget be on the lower side of that range?? I mean according to Louisiana's budget report, Geostorm only had a 58.2 million net production budget before the re-shoots. The Wrap was reporting earlier that the cost of the re-shoots were around 15 million. Is it believable?? IIRC, JL and Skwad's respective re-shoots budget were 25 million and 22 million. Since the net production budget of Geostorm is less than even 25% of JL's production budget (assuming JL's budget will be 250m+), shouldn't the re-shoots for Geostorm cost less in comparison?? So the 15 million sounds plausible, right?? Nao even accounting for a bigger re-shoots budget, the final net production budget should hover around (58.2+20)=78.2 million or so. Then making (210-220) million WW doesn't look that bad, does it?? Since WB and Skydance split the production budget right down the middle, WB shouldn't be in a tight corner and lose much money, right?? The Wrap also reported that WB didn't promote the movie all that much thereby cutting their marketing expense, here's the link https://www.thewrap.com/gerard-butlers-geostorm-lose-much-100-million/ Box office and finance analysts who spoke with TheWrap estimate that the break-even point for “Geostorm” is likely between $300 million and $350 million worldwide. Usually, for a non-franchise event release, the bar is set between $350 million and $400 million. But WB cut its marketing budget for the weather-themed catastrophe movie after pushing back the release date three times from March 2016 to this past weekend, when no Thursday preview screenings were held. It didn’t help that critics gave it a 13 percent Rotten Tomatoes score. “There really wasn’t a lot of advertising for this movie, and that’s a sign that WB was willing to cut their losses,” said Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock. Can give us a potential range for the world-wide P&A cost for a disaster movie like this?? I'm asking since you have extensive data and knowledge about these budget related queries.

From Screen Daily: A $6.3m for It in 54 markets elevated the horror smash’s tally to $342.9m and the worldwide haul to $666.7m. Italy delivered $3.6m in its second weekend for $13.7m and the top three markets are the UK on $42.4m, Germany on $33.4m, and Mexico on $27.6m. Japan is the final key market and opens this week. So the 'IT' dropped 53% this weekend. Hmmmm The last 4 weekdays were flat from the previous batch of weekdays. 0_o Oct (16-19) - [332.8-(315.6+13.4)] = 3.8 million Oct (23-26) - [342.9-(332.8+6.3)] = 3.8 million Am I missing something here?? How come the cumulative weekday figures stayed flat from the last week??

If the last 4 OS weekdays dropped 40% from the previous batch of OS weekdays, then the total OS gross between Oct (23-26) would be close to 2.3 million. Adding that amount to the total after 'IT's 7th weekend will yield [332.8+2.3] = 335.1 million. So the 8th weekend gross will be around [342.9-335.1] = 7.8 million. So 'IT' dropped around 41.8% against 52% of Ragnarok's OS market share where it pretty much broke most of the October OW records. But 'IT' still managed to stay on top in 'Italy' ahead of Ragnarok. Next weekend, the two biggest openers for Ragnarok is China and Japan. So that doesn't bother 'IT' at all. While Germany and Mexico's late legs will take a hit. But overall, the OS numbers should be fine next weekend. I'm think at-least (1.5 x 8th weekend) from here on out. That gets 'IT' to [342.9+(7.8 x 1.5)] = 354.6 million. While in an optimistic scenario, I can see (1.8 x 8th weekend). Then the final OS total becomes [342.9+(7.8 x 1.8)] = 356.94 million.

5 minutes of Pulse watch 2/3 (not sure which one is accurate) hours ago showed that Ragnarok sold around 105 tickets and JL sold around 50 tickets. I tracked Pulse for 5 minutes again just moments before posting and this time Ragnarok sold around 115 tickets and JL sold around 65 tickets.

Earlier you said, JL's pre-sales figure after 24 hours should be close to that of WW's pre-sales on Monday before release and Skwad's pre-sales on Friday before release. So does it mean that if JL were to open on it's 1st day of ticket sales, it would have opened close to wherever WW's 'pre-sales to OW' converted figure would have been on the Monday before release?? The same goes for Skwad's 'pre-sales to OW' converted figure on the Friday before it's release. IIRC, Skwad tickets also went on sale 3 weeks before it's theatrical release. So JL being 100% ahead in pre-sales is a very good sign, right?? Does it not point to at-least 150m+ OW already?? Also aren't these numbers extremely good considering that JL has a direct competition from another behemoth CBM that opens in less than 6 day's time?? Shouldn't JL's numbers be a bit hamstrung due to the strong competition from Ragnarok?? So once Ragnarok's OW is out of the way, JL's numbers will shoot up. Also do we get an accurate estimate or a close enough range for the OW of a huge opener with these pre-sales figures??

Sept (8-10) – 66.3 million Sept (11-14) – 26.1 million [92.4 million] Sept (15-17) – 61.1 million New Openers - [61.1-42.4] = 18.7 million Holdovers = (100-36)% of 66.3 Million = 42.4 million Sept (18-21) – 20.1 million [173.6 million] Sept (22-24) – 38.4 million New Openers – [6.53 (France)+5.14 (Argentina)] = 11.65 million Holdovers in total 56 markets – [38.4-11.65] = 26.75 million [(61.1-38.4)/61.1] x 100 = [-37.15%] [26.75-(4.25+1+0.28+0.26+0.25+0.14+0.09+0.05+1.7*+#)] = [26.75-(7.57+#)] = (19.18+#) million 19.18 million [-54.7%] – First 46 OS territories 7.57 million+ [-59.5%] - 10 OS territories from Sophomore Weekend Sept (25-28) – 15.2 million [227.2 million] (Sept 29 – Oct 1) – 37.6 million New Openers – [11.8 (Germany)+0.8 (Greece)+*(0.2 x 3)] = [12.6+0.6] million *Unspecified Market Holdovers (59 markets) – [37.6-13.2] = 24.4 million [(38.4-24.4)/38.4] x 100 = [-36.45%] [24.4-(4.1+2.5)] = [24.4-6.6] = 17.8 million in 56 markets [(26.75-17.8)/26.75] x 100 = [-33.45%] (Oct 2 - Oct 5) – 14.2 million [279 million] (Oct 6 - Oct 8) – 20.1 million 5 Openers from Week 4 – (6.53+0.005) = 6.535 million From the 59 OS markets [20.1 – 6.36] = 13.74 million [{(13.74/24.4) x 100} = 56.31] [-43.7%] (Oct 9 - Oct 13) – 6.2 million [305.3 million] [(14.2-6.2)/14.2] x 100 = [-56.33%] (Oct 14 – Oct 16) – 10.3 million Drop in the 64* holdover markets - [(20.1 – 10.3)/20.1] = [-48.75%] *1 New Market was added but I'm guessing the OW was rather insignificant* Drop in 59 holdover markets from weekend 3 – [10.3 – (3.37+0.13*)] x 100 = 6.8 million [-50.5%] (Oct 17 – Oct 21) – 3.8 million [(6.2-3.8)/6.2] x 100 = [-38.7%] (Oct 22 – Oct 24) – 13.4 million New Opener – 7.65 million Holdover Percentage – [(10.3-5.75)/10.3] x 100 = [-44.17%] 65 Holdover Markets – {13.4-7.65} = 5.75 million I tried making a comprehensive OS Box Office breakdown of 'IT'. I had to make a few assumptions here and there because some markets were unknown and BO figures from some markets were not on BOM or thenumbers.com I am truly astonished by 'IT' performance at the BO. It has been such a monstrous hit everywhere. Apart from some Asians countries where the genre is not conducive for big numbers, this movie has broken OW and final total records almost everywhere. 'IT's BO performance has been ridiculously awesome. 'IT' BO run (both DBO & IBO) might as well be the most impressive one I have ever seen. I think 'IT' has done better than American Sniper & Deadpool. I am just stunned to see how great 'IT' has done relative to it's rumored production budget, the studio expectations, industry tracking, front-loading nature of movies in general. Plus also taking genre limitations ['R' rated Horror movie that also happens to be an adaptation of a widely known Stephen King Novel] into account, this has been such a behemoth. I have never tracked a movies' BO run this closely before and I hafta say that this has been so much fun. Just wanted to add that I may have been wrong in more than one place with my calculations so if there are multiple mistakes in my analysis, I apologize. I am new to this. I hope that if anyone comes across an error or two, they'll let me know so I can rectify my calculation.