Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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41 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:
Adjusted is doing some heavy lifting there.
Equivalently, nominal is doing some heavy lifting in the idea that 200M is still a really tippy top megahuge open.
I mean, it’s still good, don’t get me wrong. It’s not easy, or common, it’d be only the 2nd one post pandemic. But that’s largely driven by not having almost any huge opener type movies post pandemic. It’s just no longer sufficient to be one of the biggest moviegoing weekends we’ve ever seen, the way it was a few years ago
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1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:
Idk why you act like 200 million openers are common. It's only happened 8 times ever. In the last 5 years there have only been 2.
10 hours ago, Joyous Legion said:Like when BP did 200M, that was 6th best adjusted OW of all time. Now it’s 26th
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IO 3day was expected to fall about 40%, that wed sets it up to fall about 40%, pretty normal
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1 hour ago, mr1006 said:
College students have been on break since late June.
Younger students are not on vacation yet. For most schools, summer vacation starts around July 20th and ends around August 20th, with middle/high schools having shorter breaks than elementary schools.
Maybe 10M possible after all then
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1 minute ago, Joyous Legion said:
200M used to mean truly huge opening business, largely not the case anymore. Both why it’s possible and why it won’t be “industry shifting” if it does happen
Like when BP did 200M, that was 6th best adjusted OW of all time. Now it’s 26th
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200M used to mean truly huge opening business, largely not the case anymore. Both why it’s possible and why it won’t be “industry shifting” if it does happen
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Is summer break starting in some regions or something? Looks like th will be flat with last week (and maybe teens drop for wknd 👀)
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4 hours ago, CoolK said:
How high can it go OS?
close to 550mn after 3rd weekend..
800mn seems locked now…900+
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Tuesday may be just-10-15ish. Still don’t see why it would miss 8.5-9.5 or so
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Kinda would have liked 99 oddly. Would have been biggest OS gross without a $100M market by a lot I think. Now will be one of biggest with only one
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1 hour ago, M37 said:
And while there probably was a WOM/“return to form” factor in there, do also believe that effect was driven by capacity limitations, in that it theaters were not prepared for an opening on level of Incredibles 2, and so some demand got rolled forward until it was able to be met, through second weekend.
Yeah I think this is also a contributing factor
Still thinking it can end around 670 by tracking a bit better than TS4 on the same calendar but we’ll see soon how it holds up to DM4 vs 2019 having FFH there
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1 hour ago, Brainbug said:
Jurassic World is safe.
No movie shall be allowed to throw it out of the Top 10 DOM. Except for Jurassic World 4, that one would be allowed.Don’t worry BB we’ll just close the cinemas down at 652,270,624
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30 minutes ago, cannastop said:
Entirely ridiculous. Who even back in 2019 would guess that an inside out sequel would gross $155m OW? That would be entirely reasonable to guess and it shows no weakness for the Pixar brand that the OW is what it was.
Actually it’s quite reasonable. If you asked people back in 2019 what an Inside Out sequel would open to if it was received very well probably would have got plenty of answers in the range of 125-150 which is like 150-180 nowadays.
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Like, you’ve got to have some sense of expectations other than tracking, right? If Moana2 hit tracking at 20M and opened to 40M, that wouldn’t be “beat tracking by 100%, great open” it would be “beat tracking by 100% but nonetheless depressed.”
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27 minutes ago, cookie said:
IO2's OW beat tracking by 50%, so can you really call it "depressed"?
Don’t really see that tracking has anything to do with it — if something is “tracking” for 50% of where it would open in better circumstances, and opens at 75%, then it beat tracking by 50% but is still 25% depressed relative to that counterfactual. A sequel finishing with something like 42% increase total DOM but only 30% OW vs an already very well-received and legged original is quite unusual behavior to say the least; if Pixar hadn’t been in a somewhat fragile state prior to this probably would have seen more like a 175-180 OW for similar total and stronger D1 sales.
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Seems like the best analogy for IO2 in the end will be GOTG3 — depressed OW due to to recent brand weakness, word gets out it’s a return to form, bolstered D4-D14 or so but largely normal run from there
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9 minutes ago, Insomnia said:
It's because the effect is most pronounced for openers. Inside Out 2 isn't opening this weekend so there's more room to jump from Friday. But even with IO2, the Saturday jump is quite a bit smaller than it would be during the non-summer months.
Yeah, summer and opening weekend mean lower Sat jumps ceteris paribus whereas kid skewing means higher
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19 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:
quite underwhelming hold for IO2 this weekend but it lines up with what I was saying from beginning. It's doing excellent but those 650M+ targets were quite unrealistic.
With DM4 next week, expecting 50-55% drop and 620-630m , above my expectations.
How many times do you plan to repost this delusional garbage only to be disproven again and again? What is the point?
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24 minutes ago, Migs20242 said:
It will depend on 3rd Thursday numbers for IO2 because July 4 is a holiday which we might expect holiday boost for IO2.
I am well aware of all factors and have taken them into account as best one can with such fundamentally uncertain domains
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Fwiw -30-40% is too optimistic but -40-50 a bit pessimistic. -35-45 perhaps
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Eh more like 32% wknd drop perhaps, now targeting high 8s midpoint to my eye
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18 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:
Do we still hope or Inside Out 2 has totally finished D&W chance of being biggest of 2024.
Basically no chance to beat 650+/1.5+, cmon now
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AQP is a very different kind of horror than hereditary it couldn't survive anything like a D+ (and won't get one)
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Thinking finish in 9s for now, could be like 8.5-10+ depending on when it starts to have some more serious drops
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South Korea Box Office
in International Box Office
Posted
Well IO2 is increasing 10% today, lol.tomorrow we’ll see how much of the strength was weekday specific but I wouldn’t be surprised if the FSS increases too. Hunt for 10M back on