Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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Congratulations to Sony for accomplishing this with NWH, a definitely-not-Disney film
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On 7/24/2024 at 2:46 AM, Joyous Legion said:
Previous version above, mtc-1 update required some adjustments
T-2
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$35.80
$36.40
$37.00
$37.60
$38.20
$38.80
$39.40
$40.00
$40.60
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
5
$179.00
$182.00
$185.00
$188.00
$191.00
$194.00
$197.00
$200.00
$203.00
5.07
$181.51
$184.55
$187.59
$190.63
$193.67
$196.72
$199.76
$202.80
$205.84
5.14
$184.01
$187.10
$190.18
$193.26
$196.35
$199.43
$202.52
$205.60
$208.68
5.21
$186.52
$189.64
$192.77
$195.90
$199.02
$202.15
$205.27
$208.40
$211.53
5.28
$189.02
$192.19
$195.36
$198.53
$201.70
$204.86
$208.03
$211.20
$214.37
5.35
$191.53
$194.74
$197.95
$201.16
$204.37
$207.58
$210.79
$214.00
$217.21
5.42
$194.04
$197.29
$200.54
$203.79
$207.04
$210.30
$213.55
$216.80
$220.05
5.49
$196.54
$199.84
$203.13
$206.42
$209.72
$213.01
$216.31
$219.60
$222.89
5.56
$199.05
$202.38
$205.72
$209.06
$212.39
$215.73
$219.06
$222.40
$225.74
Final presale grid I guess
T-1
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$36.40
$37.00
$37.60
$38.20
$38.80
$39.40
$40.00
$40.60
$41.20
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
5.13
$186.73
$189.81
$192.89
$195.97
$199.04
$202.12
$205.20
$208.28
$211.36
5.2
$189.28
$192.40
$195.52
$198.64
$201.76
$204.88
$208.00
$211.12
$214.24
5.26
$191.46
$194.62
$197.78
$200.93
$204.09
$207.24
$210.40
$213.56
$216.71
5.32
$193.65
$196.84
$200.03
$203.22
$206.42
$209.61
$212.80
$215.99
$219.18
5.38
$195.83
$199.06
$202.29
$205.52
$208.74
$211.97
$215.20
$218.43
$221.66
5.44
$198.02
$201.28
$204.54
$207.81
$211.07
$214.34
$217.60
$220.86
$224.13
5.5
$200.20
$203.50
$206.80
$210.10
$213.40
$216.70
$220.00
$223.30
$226.60
5.56
$202.38
$205.72
$209.06
$212.39
$215.73
$219.06
$222.40
$225.74
$229.07
5.62
$204.57
$207.94
$211.31
$214.68
$218.06
$221.43
$224.80
$228.17
$231.54
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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:
I won't care much about it really. Ticket face value doesn't really matter. A ticket sold by membership of chain get a fixed amount.
Do we know what % of sales is from members vs nonmembers? I would have thought mostly membership % low so face value still pretty significant.
Also is the membership value provided anywhere? Surely it’s not immune from inflation itself, if it’s gone up 22->24 that could be important
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1
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1 minute ago, Zamor said:
It didn't help lol
If that doesn’t help you I’m afraid you’re beyond saving
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22 hours ago, Joyous Legion said:
-> 31.3M
T-1 record could fall imo, target is 1961
Edit: No wait, nwh is 1961 but L&T has the record with 2246 lol
Gottem 😎
Like for like size-adj avg 31.3M -> 32.4M, with NWH included (agree with this btw) closer to 32.45
Not exactly sophisticated math here but often each of the final day updates has about as much comp movement as the previous two days avg, so might go to something like 33.6 & then 34.75 final (before atp)
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1
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7 minutes ago, Quigley said:
Which film is MOM?
DSItMoM
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1
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1
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17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Hmm. I guess ATP there could be difference of 1-1.5% due to R rating. Mostly of not much value but could be difference of $39.5M and $40M.
Dunno how much is R vs just 2 years inflation but the ATP diff at mtc is more like 8% right. Maybe 5%ish inflation 2.5%ish ticket type distribution?
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9 minutes ago, Han134 said:
I must clarify it. Inside Out 2 is actually the second highest-grossing animated film all-time, because 2019 The Lion King is essentially a animated film (specifically a photorealistic one) and still grossed $200M higher than Inside Out 2 ($1.66 billion). Disney marketed the film as "live-action" simply for marketing purposes to the mainstream press, and in fact, only a single shot was real (even less live-action scene than Wall-E).
So, Inside Out 2 cannot officially become the highest-grossing animated film all-time until the film was released in Japan a week from now (August 1). I expected this film will perform better in Japan, and therefore boosting IO2 numbers to much higher than The Lion King 2019 eventually.
I must clarify it. Inside out is actually the highest grossing animation film of all time, because TLK doesn’t count as animated for records
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7
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21 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Hey now it has a chance to beat it by like 50% DOM, so yes it's gonna demolish GOTG 3
Dude, why do you always do this to yourself. Do you know what “might” means 😛
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25 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Nothing embarrassing about it. It was a cultural phenomenon.
That’s what makes it embarrassing 😛
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On 7/21/2024 at 2:57 AM, Joyous Legion said:
As has been said by all sorts of trackers already, excellent past two days. May be final trailer bump, may be start of very hot closing week if reception holds up
T-5
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$32.00
$33.00
$34.00
$35.00
$36.00
$37.00
$38.00
$39.00
$40.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
4.93
$157.76
$162.69
$167.62
$172.55
$177.48
$182.41
$187.34
$192.27
$197.20
5
$160.00
$165.00
$170.00
$175.00
$180.00
$185.00
$190.00
$195.00
$200.00
5.07
$162.24
$167.31
$172.38
$177.45
$182.52
$187.59
$192.66
$197.73
$202.80
5.14
$164.48
$169.62
$174.76
$179.90
$185.04
$190.18
$195.32
$200.46
$205.60
5.21
$166.72
$171.93
$177.14
$182.35
$187.56
$192.77
$197.98
$203.19
$208.40
5.28
$168.96
$174.24
$179.52
$184.80
$190.08
$195.36
$200.64
$205.92
$211.20
5.35
$171.20
$176.55
$181.90
$187.25
$192.60
$197.95
$203.30
$208.65
$214.00
5.42
$173.44
$178.86
$184.28
$189.70
$195.12
$200.54
$205.96
$211.38
$216.80
5.49
$175.68
$181.17
$186.66
$192.15
$197.64
$203.13
$208.62
$214.11
$219.60
SpoilerI guess we won’t get mtc1 until morning, so:
T-2
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$33.40
$34.10
$34.80
$35.50
$36.20
$36.90
$37.60
$38.30
$39.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
4.92
$164.33
$167.77
$171.22
$174.66
$178.10
$181.55
$184.99
$188.44
$191.88
5
$167.00
$170.50
$174.00
$177.50
$181.00
$184.50
$188.00
$191.50
$195.00
5.08
$169.67
$173.23
$176.78
$180.34
$183.90
$187.45
$191.01
$194.56
$198.12
5.16
$172.34
$175.96
$179.57
$183.18
$186.79
$190.40
$194.02
$197.63
$201.24
5.24
$175.02
$178.68
$182.35
$186.02
$189.69
$193.36
$197.02
$200.69
$204.36
5.32
$177.69
$181.41
$185.14
$188.86
$192.58
$196.31
$200.03
$203.76
$207.48
5.4
$180.36
$184.14
$187.92
$191.70
$195.48
$199.26
$203.04
$206.82
$210.60
5.48
$183.03
$186.87
$190.70
$194.54
$198.38
$202.21
$206.05
$209.88
$213.72
5.56
$185.70
$189.60
$193.49
$197.38
$201.27
$205.16
$209.06
$212.95
$216.84
Narrowing down, plenty of uncertainty left for final 2 days pace and atp impact but don’t foresee 40 as possible with those reviews (they are fine but stretch goals involve random variables resolving to notably-better-than-fine)
Previous version above, mtc-1 update required some adjustments
T-2
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$35.80
$36.40
$37.00
$37.60
$38.20
$38.80
$39.40
$40.00
$40.60
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
5
$179.00
$182.00
$185.00
$188.00
$191.00
$194.00
$197.00
$200.00
$203.00
5.07
$181.51
$184.55
$187.59
$190.63
$193.67
$196.72
$199.76
$202.80
$205.84
5.14
$184.01
$187.10
$190.18
$193.26
$196.35
$199.43
$202.52
$205.60
$208.68
5.21
$186.52
$189.64
$192.77
$195.90
$199.02
$202.15
$205.27
$208.40
$211.53
5.28
$189.02
$192.19
$195.36
$198.53
$201.70
$204.86
$208.03
$211.20
$214.37
5.35
$191.53
$194.74
$197.95
$201.16
$204.37
$207.58
$210.79
$214.00
$217.21
5.42
$194.04
$197.29
$200.54
$203.79
$207.04
$210.30
$213.55
$216.80
$220.05
5.49
$196.54
$199.84
$203.13
$206.42
$209.72
$213.01
$216.31
$219.60
$222.89
5.56
$199.05
$202.38
$205.72
$209.06
$212.39
$215.73
$219.06
$222.40
$225.74
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On 7/23/2024 at 2:08 AM, Joyous Legion said:
Sacto size-adj avg: 29.4 -> 30.2
The great alignment is nigh?
-> 31.3M
T-1 record could fall imo, target is 1961
Edit: No wait, nwh is 1961 but L&T has the record with 2246 lol
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49 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
Some people are going be annoyed by this question, but it's too tempting
How much would it be in May 2022 with the same reception?
We still don’t know reception, ask me on Saturday
but since reviews are in line basically the same as what I said 2 months ago 😛
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3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
True but what's your overall box office prediction . . .previews/OW/DOM/WW
37 --> 192 --> 507 // 1180?
Maybe more like 490/1080
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3 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:
They’re about what it made sense to expect all along and basically no impact (small opportunity cost impact if you thought it was going to get lauded BP1/SC style for some reason)
Could be A- but I’d guess A
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2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:
Could Deadpool push for $40M previews? That would be bonkers
Not anymore
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Typically, there has been very strong correlation between critic reception and GA reception for MCU movies. It would be interesting if this was the first to significantly buck that trend (also the critic reception still isn’t very clear just wait for actual review embargo lol)
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Sacto size-adj avg: 29.4 -> 30.2
The great alignment is nigh?
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16 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
Eyes bleeding out of sockets?
I'm sorry but what's the context for that. Lol!
Their eyes are bleeding from counting too many seat charts in a row
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19 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
When @TheFlatLannister was doing the comp for Dune 2, it was slightly lower today than it was on Saturday.
I just wanted to know if there was any specific reason why it went down.
It’s over 4x dune so should be expected to decrease every day
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12 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
I don't doubt this is impressive and I shouldn't take this too seriously, but should there be any concern that this is slightly below where it was at T-5?
Huh?
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2 hours ago, grey ghost said:
It's already tracking on par with DS2.
It’s way behind DS2, the case for this is expected better reception…
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15 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:
T-4
313493/1392027 5584599.45 (+17064)
Not a huge Sunday jump, but taken slightly earlier. Tonight I will also start posting Friday.
People couldn't afford to buy tickets after bankrupting themselves on actblue, SAD
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Doesn’t necessarily look like there was any impact to me, but it’s extra hard to tell since it’s unclear how much we should be coming down from final trailer/coming into final week anyway 🤷♂️
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Sacto size adj avg on the last two updates ticked up from 32.45->33.05->33.85
I think I agree with 36+- based purely on Sacto but mtcs definitely suggest the plus, probably like 37.5-40 but we’ll see what we see. Great finish either way