Cooper Legion
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Posts posted by Cooper Legion
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8 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:
Like MiniTC4 , Sacramento has already accelerated at two days earlier than usual. Clearly The Final Trailer felt good for the tracking. I think at this point 19K finish for the movie if reviews are good so around 33M .
FWIW I would guess ~20k for now
t-5 to final growth:
DS2 +56%
L&T +89%
BP2 +76.5%
gotg3 +106%
bats +108%
atsv +172% (btw @Porthos won’t grow enough to hit the t-5 comp or anything, but I think this should be a fine add to the comp block for the final stretch)
100-115 seems realistic here depending on how things play out
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6 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I suppose what I was really trying to say is that while it was underindexing against DS2 and L&T, it really wasn't against GOTG3 (while noting that the loooooong pre-sale window makes this difficult to really crack).
Now is this a "new normal" or not? Hell if I know. But my... suspicion that it was at least in play for DP3 was one of the reasons I've been looking at... alternative comps to DS2 and L&T.
Mostly what I meant by that was just that the comps were underindexing against other regions, regardless of the comp movie choice. Like certainly it looked better in Sacto vs Gotg than vs ds2 or L&T. But the gotg3 comp in Sacto has been low vs most other samples gotg3 comp, the L&T comp has been low vw other samples L&T comps, etc etc. So that’s a pretty genuine regional trend not just colored by paying more/less attention to right/wrong movies.
Which is not, like, a problem per se. Different shape of sales all gets straightened out by the end. Mostly the few times I emphasized that was just as a warning for those reading the threads who are less in the weeds of this stuff that the overall picture was not as bad as they might think looking at Sacto straight comps at the time
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5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
$62M range. BOOOOOO.
If you want a tighter range just choose a different shade 🥱
SpoilerFWIW my goal with these is that the beige region really shouldn’t happen. I would probably say like 172-203 if you want to convert to a 2 value range
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7 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Ironically I typed up the above message before I saw this post.
Consider all of the above as my points addressing the "underindexing" topic that I have been up-to-this-point studiously ignoring. 😉
Fwiw I agree that, particularly post L&T, ps patterns for MCU are a bit different — more hesitancy in quality, less frontloading (though still more than anything but like SW of course). It’s logical that if there’s a national dynamic to that effect it will be stronger in some markets/weaker in others.
Getting a little into meaningless linguistic nitty-gritty but I would personally regard that more as an explanation of why Sacto was underindexing for so long vs the comp set than that not being the case
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On 7/12/2024 at 3:54 AM, Joyous Legion said:
Very boring run so far to be honest. Recent pace is decent enough given how long it’s been on sale but not really exciting, considering Thor reception and ATP diffs should be unlikely to dip below 30, on other hand high 30s seems tough to reach without really sizzling reception buzz for final few days. Might drag IM’s up slightly next update depending on how Fri paces vs Thor
T-14
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$30.00
$31.00
$32.00
$33.00
$34.00
$35.00
$36.00
$37.00
$38.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
4.825
$144.75
$149.58
$154.40
$159.23
$164.05
$168.88
$173.70
$178.53
$183.35
4.9
$147.00
$151.90
$156.80
$161.70
$166.60
$171.50
$176.40
$181.30
$186.20
4.975
$149.25
$154.23
$159.20
$164.18
$169.15
$174.13
$179.10
$184.08
$189.05
5.05
$151.50
$156.55
$161.60
$166.65
$171.70
$176.75
$181.80
$186.85
$191.90
5.125
$153.75
$158.88
$164.00
$169.13
$174.25
$179.38
$184.50
$189.63
$194.75
5.2
$156.00
$161.20
$166.40
$171.60
$176.80
$182.00
$187.20
$192.40
$197.60
5.275
$158.25
$163.53
$168.80
$174.08
$179.35
$184.63
$189.90
$195.18
$200.45
5.35
$160.50
$165.85
$171.20
$176.55
$181.90
$187.25
$192.60
$197.95
$203.30
5.425
$162.75
$168.18
$173.60
$179.03
$184.45
$189.88
$195.30
$200.73
$206.15
As has been said by all sorts of trackers already, excellent past two days. May be final trailer bump, may be start of very hot closing week if reception holds up
T-5
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$32.00
$33.00
$34.00
$35.00
$36.00
$37.00
$38.00
$39.00
$40.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
4.93
$157.76
$162.69
$167.62
$172.55
$177.48
$182.41
$187.34
$192.27
$197.20
5
$160.00
$165.00
$170.00
$175.00
$180.00
$185.00
$190.00
$195.00
$200.00
5.07
$162.24
$167.31
$172.38
$177.45
$182.52
$187.59
$192.66
$197.73
$202.80
5.14
$164.48
$169.62
$174.76
$179.90
$185.04
$190.18
$195.32
$200.46
$205.60
5.21
$166.72
$171.93
$177.14
$182.35
$187.56
$192.77
$197.98
$203.19
$208.40
5.28
$168.96
$174.24
$179.52
$184.80
$190.08
$195.36
$200.64
$205.92
$211.20
5.35
$171.20
$176.55
$181.90
$187.25
$192.60
$197.95
$203.30
$208.65
$214.00
5.42
$173.44
$178.86
$184.28
$189.70
$195.12
$200.54
$205.96
$211.38
$216.80
5.49
$175.68
$181.17
$186.66
$192.15
$197.64
$203.13
$208.62
$214.11
$219.60
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1 minute ago, Porthos said:
Doesn’t count in Sacto since have been expecting for months that dark magic would force it to rise sharply at the end to cover the underindexing gap 😛
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9 minutes ago, thajdikt said:
That’s more than Doctor Strange IIRC?
650 for strange, dp should have higher atp so might be able to beat in gross even if not tix
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51 minutes ago, thajdikt said:
Is 600k t-0 in play?
Very likely. Should be in 600s
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Waiting on Sacto for grid update but thinking over 35 for first time in run (midpoint has been 35.0 in the past so not like a huge change or anything, just bumping up a bit)
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3 minutes ago, Eric Twister said:
Honey, people could just write fanfiction if they really wanted this.
People do write fanfic. In large part because people like to read those sort of plots. Just like they like to see them on the big screen and are more willing to pay for that than most of what HW is putting out
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Wick is right in line with the rest in terms of size:comp fit. Sacto starting to right size a little bit, though I don’t think the size adj comp will move past 30 until midweek (currently 28.5, basically same as t-14).
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Maybe just a 33% drop for IO2 today… 330k-ish wknd? Probably settling down into 8.5-9 at this point
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FWIW, CM was at 4494 T-8 before totaling 10553, so +135% growth or so. TROS was at 15099 before totaling 19541 — mere +30%. The adj CM comp provided suggest that DP3 is currently 7402 at same sources, which would suggest that it would be a bit higher for the TROS comp, maybe 7750ish giving ~24M adj comp.
Final vs T-8 growth for:
DS2 — +75%
THOR — +114%
BP2 — +100%
GOTG3 — +144%
accounting for stuff like seasonality, reception, reaction timing etc a *crude* guess might be for DPW to grow 120%ish for a finish ~ 18300 (17100 vs TROS, 16300 vs CM). If that were to come to pass final comps (atp adjusted for the 2019 but still take with a lot of uncertainty):
CM 37.5
TROS 41
DS2 31
L&T 31
BP2 30.5
Bats 33.5
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3 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:
With a total of how many seats CM and TROS finished @Porthosbecause he continues to play exactly like them.
On 7/4/2024 at 1:30 PM, Porthos said:That's not what those columns are saying. It's saying that those are the DP3 sales at the theaters I tracked for Captain Marvel and the theaters I tracked for TROS. I suppose it could be clearer, but it's for the people who already have the daily sales info for CM and TROS and want to do their own compare/contrasts.
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Got a good shot at USD record which is just absurd
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On 7/7/2024 at 4:48 PM, Joyous Legion said:
Taking 685 for this wknd cume since actuals tend to rise slightly, would be:
135M wk
Down 177M wk, -34% with direct competition hit in many markets
30% avg drops from here, existing markets would add 315 for 1B on the dot
remaining markets should add 40M+
1B+ highly favored imo, even continuing 34% drops could be enough
On 7/10/2024 at 9:58 AM, kayumanggi said:INSIDE OUT II overseas weekend grosses
140.0M | weekend 1
167.8M | weekend 2 [372.6M]
108.0M | weekend 3 [545.5M]
080.9M | weekend 4 [685.7M]
Wknd 5 est 777.5, Portugal ~1.8, so 90M holdover wk. Actuals guess 92M (-34%). Keep dropping 33%ish, add 2x or 184M for 963+portugal rest+final markets. Easy billie maybe 1.025 when all said and done, though maybe Olympics hurt a bit
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4 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
I know Marvel movies are extremely frontloaded, but if this does manage to hit $40M in previews, does that guarantee a $200M opening?
Not 100% guarantee, would be pretty likely. IM likely low 5s but could flex around to mid 5s or high 4s depending on various factors
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1 hour ago, CJohn said:
The Barbenheimer weekend was the biggest weekend of all time.
Uhhh…. Not even close to close?
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I wouldn’t say 0 chance in Japan, sometimes freak breakouts happen. But a freak breakout is exactly what would be needed and there are only a few of those per decade so ahh… definitely don’t hold your breath, lol.
Probably passing 100M in Mexico unfortunately which will kill that bit of trivia.
Locked to beat Barbie DOM (close), WW (not that close) and OS (not at all close).
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40.7 would be 3.4 wk right? 44% drops for 45, 27% for 50, maybe like 46-48?
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9 hours ago, titanic2187 said:
Looks like IO2 just suddenly decided not to hold great anymore. Friday is a 60% drop from last week. Similar to China when the great hold just stop as it also down about 55% there week-to-week.
Last week was a freakishly strong Fri for unclear reasons, this is down 56% from two Fridays ago vs a local Friday opener. Looks to be recovering some on Saturday
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On 6/9/2024 at 8:28 PM, Joyous Legion said:
Made a minor update in my private sheet, might as well share I guess. Not much changed, still far out, still high uncertainty
T-46
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$30.00
$31.25
$32.50
$33.75
$35.00
$36.25
$37.50
$38.75
$40.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
4.825
$144.75
$150.78
$156.81
$162.84
$168.88
$174.91
$180.94
$186.97
$193.00
4.9
$147.00
$153.13
$159.25
$165.38
$171.50
$177.63
$183.75
$189.88
$196.00
4.975
$149.25
$155.47
$161.69
$167.91
$174.13
$180.34
$186.56
$192.78
$199.00
5.05
$151.50
$157.81
$164.13
$170.44
$176.75
$183.06
$189.38
$195.69
$202.00
5.125
$153.75
$160.16
$166.56
$172.97
$179.38
$185.78
$192.19
$198.59
$205.00
5.2
$156.00
$162.50
$169.00
$175.50
$182.00
$188.50
$195.00
$201.50
$208.00
5.275
$158.25
$164.84
$171.44
$178.03
$184.63
$191.22
$197.81
$204.41
$211.00
5.35
$160.50
$167.19
$173.88
$180.56
$187.25
$193.94
$200.63
$207.31
$214.00
5.425
$162.75
$169.53
$176.31
$183.09
$189.88
$196.66
$203.44
$210.22
$217.00
Very boring run so far to be honest. Recent pace is decent enough given how long it’s been on sale but not really exciting, considering Thor reception and ATP diffs should be unlikely to dip below 30, on other hand high 30s seems tough to reach without really sizzling reception buzz for final few days. Might drag IM’s up slightly next update depending on how Fri paces vs Thor
T-14
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$30.00
$31.00
$32.00
$33.00
$34.00
$35.00
$36.00
$37.00
$38.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
4.825
$144.75
$149.58
$154.40
$159.23
$164.05
$168.88
$173.70
$178.53
$183.35
4.9
$147.00
$151.90
$156.80
$161.70
$166.60
$171.50
$176.40
$181.30
$186.20
4.975
$149.25
$154.23
$159.20
$164.18
$169.15
$174.13
$179.10
$184.08
$189.05
5.05
$151.50
$156.55
$161.60
$166.65
$171.70
$176.75
$181.80
$186.85
$191.90
5.125
$153.75
$158.88
$164.00
$169.13
$174.25
$179.38
$184.50
$189.63
$194.75
5.2
$156.00
$161.20
$166.40
$171.60
$176.80
$182.00
$187.20
$192.40
$197.60
5.275
$158.25
$163.53
$168.80
$174.08
$179.35
$184.63
$189.90
$195.18
$200.45
5.35
$160.50
$165.85
$171.20
$176.55
$181.90
$187.25
$192.60
$197.95
$203.30
5.425
$162.75
$168.18
$173.60
$179.03
$184.45
$189.88
$195.30
$200.73
$206.15
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USD kind of meaningless once ER but lc can be meaningless because of inflation. Thank god for admits
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Coming to earth a little bit at last, thinking ~500k wknd for 9-9.5 should be it
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INSIDE OUT II | 958.1M overseas | 1596.0M worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted
Unfortunately IW is just below 1b os-c as the correct China value is 376m