Cooper Legion

Don’t think I said that anywhere.

Well, GWTW is from such a different period that I don’t know if the comparison really says much. But that seems like the goalpost moving — I’m just trying to compare a 2022 movie to a 2018, or other 21st century movies.

Uhh… what. The 2nd sentence of this comment feels like you didn’t read the first sentence of mine. Yes, you can apply it to every movie. I agree! It’s true! We should, and I do 😆

I do apply it to every movie — you may have noticed when I pointed out that Batman and DS2 performances were meh with 2022 atp as one factor It’s having the goal posts where they oughta be originally, no stretching here.

If the average nominal gross is 82 then the average adjusted is probably like 110 or something and average rank gets you to like 130. Lightyear will be on weaker side.

@THUNDER BIRD @Brainbug the Dinosaur now you see

55.55 per the numbers, RIP 130

PostTrak lines up with RT more than CS imo

I don’t know whether rotf or dotm would have done all that much more with 90% on RT or whatever. But it seems to me that thinking the answer is “yes” means thinking hey weren’t critic proof, just big enough potential to withstand the hit.

“Critic proof” is kind of a ill-defined term, but in the most straightforward sense it probably doesn’t have anything to do with a large final gross, right? If a movie would do 900M with good reviews and 750M with poor ones, that’s not critic proof — they took a big bite out. A movie that would do 40M with good reviews and 40M with poor ones is critic proof.

This is slightly earlier in June, maybe slightly more kids in school, could help sat bump. On the other hand I assume this is more plf heavy than FK (just general 2022 vs 2018 market trends) which hurts Sat bump.

Thursday almost certainly. If Fri and Sat are down 33% for TGM, I’d expect maybe like a 20% sun increase instead of 20% decrease (I.e. a 50% boost to Sun — *possibly* even more). That’s ~ a 16% boost to the 3day would take the wknd drop from 33% to just 22% or so. Won’t be surprised with teens drop.

Yes really “dude.” $1 2022 won’t buy you as much as $1 2018 so universal in fact does care somewhat about real vs nominal — but even if they didn’t, who cares if Universal cares?

It’s a loss with these ticket prices.

That reminds me — when are we gonna get the Dinoshark sequel 🤔

Mostly not talking about either of you guys 😛

Let’s just say I wish all members were as clear eyed about it 😆 There are some people the last few pages who seem ready to take A- and 140s as some triumph, my comment was pushing back against that.

I might do this this wknd if I get some time — might be more informative to use peak non-Cameron rank though

Now do geomean WW peak rank 😛

There’s definitely a tension between the CS and verified aud here. Occam’s razor suggests that the “true” reception is likely somewhere in between what either would suggest independently. It’s hard to test for relative correlative value because they themself are so correlated in most cases. PostTrak will be another data point soon. Anyway I still feel like this is going to miss 8x and open down from the last one in gross and double digits down in admits. If people wanna cheer for that that’s their prerogative, I guess it reflects just how drastic expectations had gotten, but it seems pretty bad to me. Between the og cast and finally delivering on dinos in world hook, there was a broad consensus on these boards (and other credible tracking models) before pre-sales that this should increase from FK in admits and certainly in gross. People continued to hope/expect that even after underwhelming PS start and well into underwhelming PS middle. The poor execution squandered that.

Once upon a Deadpool: 6M (~1.9%) FFH expansion: ~5M (~1.3%) AEG expansion: ~16M (~1.9%) If it’s weak content like those 3, I expect ~15M total. I suspect this will actually have some more goods and go for closer to 25+.

Just wait for the “Most Fun Stuff Version”

Target is still 621

I am thinking more like +7 -24 from wom. TGM I had a slight error, actually would guess 50-53ish

Don't see 140 from 41 or 50 from 14.25