Cooper Legion

Fwiw, I think it’ll probably do about 40 this wknd and be at 462 after a 67M week. That’s 138 away, but maybe effectively 128 giving it like 10M for Juneteenth and July 4 boosts? At that point 34% drops will get it to 600, so I do think it’s highly likely. Greater than 95% even. I think it’s quite likely to go past 621. But it would hardly be the craziest thing in the world if it ended up with like 595 after some upcoming competition also broke out.

No, it doesn’t help at all. I mean, I guess it helps reinforce your imprecise communication of probability but that’s not really what I was after. If you think it’s a stone Cold 100%, then how about I’ll give you $50 if it passes 600 and you give me $50k if it misses — EZ money for you

What does “locked” mean to you, @EmpireCity? Is it just a hyperbolic way of saying 90%? 95%? 99%? 99.99999%? Cause I would be quite happy to bet you at 1:100 odds if you are closer to the “literally locked” side fo the spectrum than “just enjoying some flowery yet technically inaccurate language” side of the spectrum.

It might happen. It’s definitely not “locked.” The next few weeks should certainly be kind to it, but they don’t just need to be kind, they to be pretty insane. What happens from July 15 on barely matters, run will be nearly over.

Maybe 6.69 20 22 21 Edit: LOL, this has revealed that the IM tab on my sheet was using true Th demoninator instead of Th+Wed. Nevermind. Although I won’t be surprised if the Fri comes in closer to 3.5x Wed+Th than 3x I currently have penciled.

I think 11-13x. We’ve seen kid animation hit high multipliers post-pandemic just like we have pre-pandemic, and this is semi-event at best. Sonic got 11.5x from similar previews and arguably more of a fan factor — though spring vs summer and normal sun vs holiday factors muck it up.

600 looks very tough to me. Will need great Fri and Sat week-to-week holds

Probably not catching Batman at this rate, 7th for the year?

Weekdays have felt inflated from May 25-June 9 (more than usual for seasonal trends). Seem to be coming back to earth a bit.

Jurassic World: Da Minions 👀

More in doubt? I thought we’ve been expecting it under 400 for the whole of the last two weeks

Similar increase as last week for maverick would throw some cold water on nba and bogo impact — let’s see how tues humps vs last week come in for the rest of the slate.

Huge effect, as others have said. The World Cup final is Avatar’s OW btw

@ZurgXXR, If you want some extra schmanciness I have a version with statistics for growth, monthly growth, and aggregate statistics thereof: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gZqoHStSG_g5bZxIouErhys8LAYyWpIBSl9dq-vRTt0/edit “Growth” here is log because ranks, so the 3rd entry solo being ~200% indicates they tend to average ~ half the rank of the predecessor, which would take Rag 62nd to 31st. Of course that “average” doesn’t mean much since there are only 3 examples. Ironically Civil War is the one bogging things down with a poor performance — only improved to 19th from 30th of TWS, whereas Thor and IM 3rd entry both more than halved the ranks of the 2nd 😂 Strike that, had a typo for TWS. When I get around to editing in NWH it will be 38th->3rd, absolutely ridiculous improvement — probably won’t want to include that among normal sequel growth.

That’s cute coming from a 4timer

I prefer top 2 finishes

Haven’t updated with phase 4 stuff yet but here’s the infinity saga: Infinity Saga aggregate statistics (mostly I would use geo or median): Subset 107 Geometric Median All Movies 67.5 31.6 31.0 Phase 1 95.0 45.5 85.5 Phase 2 76.8 42.2 52.0 Phase 3 47.4 22.2 27.0 Solo Avg 80.8 50.0 49.0 Avengers Avg 4.0 3.6 3.5 Post-Avengers 57.8 27.8 31.0 post Avengers Solo 69.2 42.6 43.5 Phase 1 Solo 113.4 78.4 142.0 Phase 2 Solo 90.8 60.4 73.0 Phase 3 Solo 57.2 35.1 38.0 NWH obviously was/is #3 and the first 3 Phase 4s were fairly impacted by covid so I’m probably going to exclude them from aggregate statistics anyway. DS2 should finish ~34

From Day 1 PS, maybe 28ish previews, 140 true FSS or so? Should take it to about 450 assuming normal reception.

Alright, pretty solid in Sacto. Very close to geomean of Bat and DS2 D1. Geomean of added would be ~11.6M for a 15.8k finish, bit under 4x. Conservatively say 15k finish, @M37’s 1750 ratio would give just 26.2M. But DS2 stuttered at end, I think more optimistically could do like 18k finish, for 31-32ish. As long as the less intense fan interest for Th also corresponds to a modestly higher IM (say 6-6.5ish) we should be fine.

We were doing so well until Friday numbers

Once again, SnyderIsTheBlueprint

Summer is one defense for a slightly soft OW actually — Oweek will end up better, arguably a better measure (though arguably worse too).

I suppose this is the first 4quel, but I don’t really see why entries should suddenly stop improving at #4 when they reliably do on 2 and 3. It’s not like Ragnarok left without much room to grow either.

Because it should be beating Ragnarok adjusted by more than just a couple % or so. For a solid McU sequel result what we’d really like to see is an improvement from rank 28 to *at least* top 20 (158).

Can’t set a low target to avoid disappointment once it already looks to be disappointing, that’s not how it works.