Cooper Legion

58-60 looks more like what I’d expect.

Either strong night or a strong CGV ratio for Aladdin, weekly drop will be more like -23% 1st Sun PSm should be pretty close to the day before. CGV PS are 149k, so something like 320 final CGV, 660k admits. A 3-day of just over/under 1.7 Oh, and Aladdin look well positioned for a Sun increase.

Dread it. Run from it. Hall H arrives all the same.

Ah man, looks like Aladdin will have a drop like a real movie this weekend. At least the FFH number is pretty good.

TLK http://moviestory.cgv.co.kr/fanpage/mainView?movieIdx=81516 Aladdin http://moviestory.cgv.co.kr/fanpage/mainView?movieIdx=81478 FFH is a nonevent now that’s it’s out of the top 2

Late extrapolations are always good. Middle of day extrapolations are often good. Early extrapolations are surprisingly often pretty good, but hit or miss by nature. I just feel like his extrapolation skills get an inaccurate bad rap because no one else even attempts the third category domestically. I think on ODs specially it might be better not to provide them at all, since it has been proven time and time again that people can’t take them for what they are. On the other hand, ODs are when people are most data hungry. Quite the inconvenient overlap there 😛

Aladdin running -30% from same time CGV last Sat, so probably a solid 180k give or take a bit. From 17:20 TLK looks like 365-375 final CGV, medium-high 700k admit? This will be my last update, already up too late 😛

Just because you don’t have access to the basis doesn't mean it doesn’t exist, lol. And you seem to be confusing “trying feats of extrapolation with large error bars by nature” with “extrapolating poorly.” Anybody could ensure that they had a very low % error by just not sharing what they were seeing until it was so late as to be pretty obvious. Perhaps you’d prefer that style, but very many people here do not.

And OD 9AM is always the most unreliable, since you don’t know what that movie’s presale heaviness is yet. Time and time again when a new movie comes out in markets with public real time data (e.g. China and SK) the morning OD estimate will miss big but the rest of the days you can get pretty close from 9AM.

I took issue with the way you put it, and definitely not apologizing for that. 9AM numbers are very uncertain, yes. That deserves to be emphasized more, yes. But it has nothing to do with being “kind of sort of terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating.” Nor was it with “no basis at all.” It had a clear basis in the sales up to that point and historical patterns for other films releasing in similar calendar conditions.

Pokemon Detective Pikachu

Announced, dated, and cast well before Wonder Woman’s success. Directors hired as well.

Disney could conceivably end the year with only one 600M+ grosser. Dark days for them, truly.

Man, really itching to put together a high scoring combo now.

It was the #2 OW of all time a2k. Can’t get more disappointing than that 😛

Wow, so in other words Aladdin will pass FFH in dailies today? Amazing, that’s like a +500% jump 😮

A famously disappointing benchmark

We were discussing the 300M mark.

With a 55M true Friday need a 3.22 True IM. Would be shocking imo.

This had better be an “agreement” Tenant and not an “even lower” Tenant

I think Marvel still has an incredible amount of ammo left and are a favorite for the next 300M+. But it doesn’t matter if there’s anything right now that looks like an obvious candidate. In 2008 it was a good bet to say “200M will broken by the end of 2014” — but nobody would have called an Iron Man team up as the culprit. 6 years is a huge time horizon, we can use historical trends to say that lots of things are highly likely without having a specific movie or franchise win mind yet.

Not sure if you think I missed sarcasm or are commenting on the fact that I often include a spoiler in my sarcastic posts that plays things straight. If the former, I knew it was sarcastic and was playing along+ribbing Deadline. If the latter, I’ve just had too many people on the internet take obviously sarcastic things I’ve said seriously. If I’m not in the mood for that kind of misunderstanding I just make it explicit and save myself the hassle.

There will be mega-event films in the next half dozen years, and they’ll probably hit 300M. If everything misses it would be a huge bucking of historical trends and a cause for concern.

If we don’t get another 300M+ by 2025 it’s because cinema has been seriously wounded by streaming. Endgame is out of this world bonkers, but IW and TFA are “reasonable” and 300M is just 20% away from them or so. The OW record advances by 20% every 4 years or so by a combination of inflation and an increasing frontloaded fandom/moviegoing culture.

“Disney left money on the table by making a soulless movie that kids don’t like.”